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NBA · 7:30 PM ET

Mavericks @ Heat

Cards
12
Top Alpha Score
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PRESS
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Sharp source
Model
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Prediction markets

Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 min

Moneyline

TeamWinsFair price
DAL24%4.08
MIA76%1.32

Total points

Market line 237.5: over 49% (2.06), under 51% (1.94).

Show every line and the range calculator

Total points · market line 237.5

LineOverFairUnderFair
231.561%1.6439%2.56
233.556%1.8044%2.25
235.554%1.8546%2.17
237.549%2.0651%1.94
239.545%2.2555%1.80
241.540%2.5060%1.67
243.537%2.7463%1.57

Spread: wins by more than

TeamByChanceFair
MIA1.572%1.40
MIA2.569%1.46
MIA3.567%1.50
MIA4.563%1.60
DAL1.525%4.08
DAL2.523%4.35
DAL4.517%6.06
DAL6.513%8.00
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints

72% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.39: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 219.5 and under 259.5.

Injuries

From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min

DAL

Out · 6
  • Caleb MartinOUT
    Oct 25: Martin (thumb) is listed as doubtful for Monday's game against the Heat.
  • Cooper FlaggOUT
    Oct 25: Flagg (shoulder) is questionable to play Monday against the Heat.
  • Naji MarshallOUT
    Oct 25: Marshall (illness) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Heat.
  • Tarik BiberovicOUT
    Oct 24: Biberovic (heel) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against San Antonio.
  • Santi AldamaOUT
    Oct 24: Aldama (knee) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Spurs.
  • Dereck Lively IIOUT
    Oct 22: Lively (foot) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Pacers.

MIA

No reported absences.

Matchup

This season, blended with last until 10 games · rank 1 = allows the fewest
MIAMIA defensevs DAL

Allows 120.6 points a game, 26th fewest of 30

Points to guards65.0
30th
Points to forwards41.9
15th
Points to centers13.7
6th
Rebounds to centers10.5
16th
Assists to guards17.6
29th
Threes to guards9.3
30th
DALDAL defensevs MIA

Allows 119.0 points a game, 22nd fewest of 30

Points to guards54.8
7th
Points to forwards46.4
27th
Points to centers17.8
22nd
Rebounds to centers11.9
27th
Assists to guards17.1
26th
Threes to guards6.8
4th

Per game, by ESPN position group. A longer bar allows more. Points allowed carries pace and defense together.

Moneyline

DAL @ MIA

DALDAL@MIAMIA
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Moneyline
Members only
Members only
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

Spread

DAL @ MIA

DALDAL@MIAMIA
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Spread 8.5
Members only
Members only
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

Game Total

DAL @ MIA

DALDAL@MIAMIA
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Game Total 235.5
Members only
Members only
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

Points

MIA

Davion Mitchell

MIAvsDALDAL
Mon 7:30 PM ET
DAL allowsMatchup, no lean shown4th-fewest threes
Points 10.5
Members only
Members only
OPP
7th
Matchup, no lean shown54.8/g
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

Rebounds

MIA

Bam Adebayo

MIAvsDALDAL
Mon 7:30 PM ET
DAL allowsMatchup, no lean shown4th-most reboundsMatchup, no lean shown2nd-most reb+ast
Rebounds 10.5
Members only
Members only
OPP
27th
Matchup, no lean shown11.9/g
Our side, price and scoreMembers only
DAL

Daniel Gafford

DAL@MIAMIA
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Rebounds 7.5
Members only
Members only
OPP
20th
Matchup, no lean shown17.9/g
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

Assists

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo

MIAvsDALDAL
Mon 7:30 PM ET
DAL allowsMatchup, no lean shown4th-most pts+astMatchup, no lean shown6th-most PRA
Assists 6.5
Members only
Members only
OPP
14th
Matchup, no lean shown7.8/g
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

3-PT Made

MIA

Davion Mitchell

MIAvsDALDAL
Mon 7:30 PM ET
DAL allowsMatchup, no lean shown4th-fewest threes
3-PT Made 1.5
Members only
Members only
OPP
4th
Matchup, no lean shown6.8/g
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

Double-Double

DAL

Cooper Flagg

DAL@MIAMIA
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Double-Double 0.5
Members only
Members only
Our side, price and scoreMembers only
MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo

MIAvsDALDAL
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Double-Double 0.5
Members only
Members only
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

Triple-Double

DAL

Cooper Flagg

DAL@MIAMIA
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Triple-Double 0.5
Members only
Members only
Our side, price and scoreMembers only
MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo

MIAvsDALDAL
Mon 7:30 PM ET
Triple-Double 0.5
Members only
Members only
Our side, price and scoreMembers only

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