The Slate · Plays of the day

Tonight's Slate

Sharp Plays first, then by confidence. Sized on quarter-Kelly, capped at 8 units a night: Sharp Plays share up to 80% of it, everything else up to 20%. Price-gate every fire: a right side at a wrong number is still a bad bet.

Sharp Plays first, then by confidence. More

Sharp Plays first. Sized on quarter-Kelly, capped at 8 units a night: Sharp Plays share up to 80%, everything else up to 20%. Price-gate every fire: a right side at a wrong number is still a bad bet.

…

Generated 8:40 PM ET · 1u = $100 · decimal first, American in parens

FRESHUpdated 0s ago

★ THE SLATE'S RECEIPTS

Slate-only P/L

W1Last graded Oct 12 →

Last 7 days

-1.83u

-10.7% ROI

Hit rate54%

Record7-6-1

Plays17

Wagered17.0u

3 pending grade

Last 30 days

-6.07u

-26.0% ROI

Hit rate44%

Record8-10-1

Plays22

Wagered23.3u

3 pending grade

All time

-5.58u

-16.8% ROI

Hit rate46%

Record11-13-1

Plays35

Wagered33.2u

10 pending grade

★ Biggest green dayOct 12 · +1.96u ◆ Biggest red dayOct 10 · -3.75u

NOTHING AT PRESS SIZE

Nothing clears tonight.

We have a read on every game on the board - none of them earned a full-size bet at tonight's prices. The strongest reads are below with what we make them and what the price needs, so you can judge them yourself rather than take our word for it.

10 cards read · none priced well enough to press

See the full board →

★ WHAT ALMOST MADE THE CUT

No plays tonight, but these came close

5 near-misses

0179%needs 71%

NHL·NYR @ NJ

Pavel DorofeyevGoals

UNDER 0.5·-250·+12.7pp·74

Score just below STRONG

LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG

→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line

0280%needs 76%

NHL·PHI @ DET

Jamie DrysdaleAssists

UNDER 0.5·-310·+10.2pp·74

Score just below STRONG

LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG

→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line

0380%needs 74%

NHL·PHI @ DET

Matvei MichkovAssists

UNDER 0.5·-285·+12.0pp·74

Score just below STRONG

LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG

→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line

0461%needs 56%

NHL·PIT @ COL

PenguinsSpread

PIT +1.5·-128·+7.1pp·74

Score just below STRONG

LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG

→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line

0571%needs 64%

NHL·CGY @ VGK

Shea TheodoreAssists

UNDER 0.5·-180·+13.0pp·74

Score just below STRONG

LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG

→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line

Near-miss cards are not published plays. They're shown so followers can see the model's thinking behind the sizing floor and the kill-signal gates.

Show why 10 cards were skipped

·Same-game cap: read 3 of 57 on this game (reads past the 2nd went 22-43 in July)
·Same-game cap: read 3 of 49 on this game (reads past the 2nd went 22-43 in July)
·Pattern register: Prop at -218 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
·Pattern register: Prop at -199 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
·Pattern register: Prop at -183 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
·Pattern register: Prop at -197 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
·verifier drop: GAME_ALREADY_STARTED: Texas St Spread YES -14.5 game is stale at publish time (starts 2026-10-16T00:00Z, status scheduled)
·verifier drop: GAME_ALREADY_STARTED: Sharks Spread YES 1.5 game is stale at publish time (starts 2026-10-16T00:00Z, status scheduled)
·verifier drop: GAME_ALREADY_STARTED: Sabres Spread YES 1.5 game is stale at publish time (starts 2026-10-15T23:00Z, status scheduled)
·verifier drop: GAME_ALREADY_STARTED: Blackhawks Spread YES 1.5 game is stale at publish time (starts 2026-10-16T00:00Z, status scheduled)