First Basket

1. The tip.Each team's jumper is the starter with the most opening tips on file. His record is pulled toward 50% by 12 tips, and the two records meet head to head. No jumper on file is a coin flip.

2. Tip to first basket.Winning the tip is the first possession, not the first basket. The tip winner scores the game's first field goal 64.2% of the time across 1,223 games, so a 70% jumper moves his team to about 60%.

3. Who takes it.A starter's share is how often he scored his team's first field goal in his starts, pulled toward his share of first-quarter shots with 20 starts of weight. A team's five shares add to 100%, and the ten players in a game add to 100%.

Lineups.Announced starters when they post; until then the depth chart's first healthy player at each spot. When the books price the game and leave one of ours off for a teammate, we take their name and flag the spot unconfirmed. Free throws never count.

Data: ESPN play-by-play, every regular-season game from 2025-26plus this season, preseason and the All-Star Game left out. Edge is our probability minus the price's, in points, at the best of DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics.