NBA · 8:00 PM ET

Pistons @ Heat

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Top Alpha Score

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PRESS

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Sharp source

Model

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Prediction markets

Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 min

Moneyline

Team	Wins	Fair price
DET	45%	2.22
MIA	55%	1.82

Total points

Market line 237.5: over 51% (1.96), under 49% (2.04).

Show every line and the range calculator

Total points · market line 237.5

Line	Over	Fair	Under	Fair
231.5	64%	1.57	36%	2.74
233.5	60%	1.67	40%	2.50
235.5	56%	1.80	44%	2.25
237.5	51%	1.96	49%	2.04
239.5	46%	2.17	54%	1.85
241.5	42%	2.38	58%	1.72
243.5	38%	2.63	62%	1.61

Spread: wins by more than

Team	By	Chance	Fair
MIA	1.5	51%	1.96
MIA	2.5	49%	2.04
MIA	3.5	44%	2.30
MIA	20.5	12%	8.33
DET	19.5	12%	8.33

Range calculator

Total lands overand underpoints

70% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.43: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 223.5 and under 261.5.

Injuries

From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min

DET

Questionable / DTD · 1

Taurean PrinceDTD
Oct 21: Prince (personal) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

MIA

No reported absences.

First basket

All ten starters →

Tip: Jalen Duren vs Bam Adebayo

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Matchup

This season, blended with last until 10 games · rank 1 = allows the fewest

MIA defensevs DET

Allows 119.7 points a game, 23rd fewest of 30

Points to guards	65.6	30th
Points to forwards	39.2	9th
Points to centers	14.9	8th
Rebounds to centers	10.9	20th
Assists to guards	17.3	27th
Threes to guards	9.6	30th

DET defensevs MIA

Allows 109.9 points a game, 5th fewest of 30

Points to guards	55.5	9th
Points to forwards	40.5	11th
Points to centers	13.9	5th
Rebounds to centers	10.1	11th
Assists to guards	13.7	2nd
Threes to guards	7.2	8th

Per game, by ESPN position group. A longer bar allows more. Points allowed carries pace and defense together.

Game Total

DET @ MIA

DET@

MIA

Fri 8:00 PM ET

Game Total 235.5

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