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Shots on Target 1.5 · RSL · F · vs STL · St. Louis at Salt Lake
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
This lane started on the board on 2026-10-16. Every one is graded, and none can be a Slate play until 100 are graded and the record holds up. College logs are short (about a dozen games a season), last season counts only if it was played for the same school, and there is no college injury report to check against.
Buy this over down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (31% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 81% | - | 19% | 1.18 (-550) | -4% |
| 1push-safe | 50% | 31% | 19% | 1.38 (-266) fair | - |
| 1.5now | 50% | - | 50% | 1.83 (-120) | (-8.6%) |
| 2 | 24% | 26% | 50% | 3.13 (+213) fair | - |
| 2.5 | 24% | - | 76% | 3.80 (+280) | (-10.4%) |
| 3.5 | 9% | - | 91% | 9.50 (+850) | (-15.3%) |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FD★ Best | 1.5 | -120 | - |
Model-only card. There is no external sharp anchor on this match, so it scores on the Poisson model alone and cannot publish above LEAN.
Model-only weights: EV 30 · model-vs-market gap 25 · confidence 30. Capped at 74. Tiers: 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.