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Anytime Goalscorer 0.5 · SAS · M · @ COMO · Sassuolo at Como
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
This lane started on the board on 2026-10-16. Every one is graded, and none can be a Slate play until 100 are graded and the record holds up. College logs are short (about a dozen games a season), last season counts only if it was played for the same school, and there is no college injury report to check against.
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5now | 12% | - | 88% | 7.50 (+650) | (-7.3%) |
| 1 | 1% | 12% | 88% | 110.79 (+10979) fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK★ Best | 0.5 | +650 | - |
| FD | 0.5 | +600 | - |
Model-only card. There is no external sharp anchor on this match, so it scores on the Poisson model alone and cannot publish above LEAN.
Model-only weights: EV 30 · model-vs-market gap 25 · confidence 30. Capped at 74. Tiers: 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.