Loading the full read
First time here? Explain (top right) is on. Dotted words like edge, carry their meaning. Tap one for the rest. How to read a card →
Loading the full read
Bet Data Labs is a data and analytics service. We don't take bets. We help you understand yours.
Double-Double 0.5 · POR · Trail Blazers @ Lakers (home)
He cleared 1+ in 4 of his last 10.
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Recent role: 35.3 minutes, his last 10 games, leaving out 23 min (blowout), 37 min (fouled out).
Nothing moves it tonight: no fresh teammate absence, back-to-back, return or big spread.
He makes 0.1 double-double per 10 minutes over his last 10, so 0.5 needs about 43 minutes.
Over 0.5 by minutes, last 20 games: 5 of 14 in his normal 31 to 39 minutes, 0 of 1 over 39, 1 of 5 under 31.
| Line | Read | Last 10 | Price | Books | Add to slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+LINE | Coin flipCoin flip | 4/10 | +300 | 26% |
▲ Safe: he cleared it in 8 or more of his last 10, with room to spare, and the books agree. = Close call: he clears it, but too many games land right on the number. ▼ Coin flip: 6 of 10 or fewer, or the books make it 60% or less. The safe pick (SAFE) is the best-paying safe line. Books is how likely the books think it is once their margin is taken out.
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +300 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (67.3% EV). No better rung available.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5now | 42% | - | 58% | 4.00 (+300) | (+67.3%) |
| 1 | 6% | 35% | 58% | 10.12 (+912) fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FD | 0.5 | +280 | - |
| DK | 0.5 | +245 | - |
| FANATICS★ Best | 0.5 | +300 | - |
We only have one price for this so far. Movement shows up after our next check.
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 4.00 (+300) the price needs 25% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
| Role | 2025-26 (66) | Final 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.4 | 35.3 | = +2.0 |
| Shot share (FGA+FTA) | 21.9% | 23.4% | = +1.5 pts |
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 25% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.