3 games this season, 6 games last season, 67% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
– No calltoo close to call
HOU has 2 players out tonight.
–Over 0.5
≈45%
-174LINE
Over 1.5
≈19%
+249
Over 2.5
≈6%
+800
Hit chance is our read at each line, the same read as the card's win %, so the card's own line matches it. ≈ marks an estimate: no book quotes that line both ways, so it leans on the ladder's shape.See all lines (4) ↓
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
45%
Market %
-
Edge
-7.5pp
Market
Blocks 0.5
DK
-174
Projection0.6vs0.5(0.1 over)
◆ SAFE PICK FINDER
= Close call1+ · 8 of last 10-174DK
Edge
-7.5pp
EV
n/a
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readPrice too short
45% to hitrange 38-53%price needs 64%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -174 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Blocks projection 0.6 vs line 0.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. Model read only: no stake, tracked at WATCH or below.
Card ID: c-401909874-AlperenSengun-BLOCKSPublished 10/27/2026, 12:25:38 AM
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
33%
1/3
OPP
10th
1.2/g
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26.
OPP: Atlanta allows 1.2 blocks a game to centers, 10th of 30 (1st = fewest allowed). Ranks run 1 (allows the fewest) to 30 (allows the most). Early season: last season is blended in until game 10.
Last 10 gamesline 0.5
See all lines (4)▾
Line
Read
Last 10
Price
Books
Add to slip
1+LINE
=Close callClose call
8/10
-174DK
61%
2+
▼Coin flipCoin flip
2/10
+249DK
27%
3+
▼Coin flipCoin flip
0/10
+800DK
11%
4+
▼Coin flipCoin flip
0/10
+2000DK
5%
▲ Safe: he cleared it in 8 or more of his last 10, with room to spare, and the books agree. = Close call: he clears it, but too many games land right on the number. ▼ Coin flip: 6 of 10 or fewer, or the books make it 60% or less. The safe pick (SAFE) is the best-paying safe line. Books is how likely the books think it is once their margin is taken out.
›
Calibration: NBA Blocks plays predicted ~60% have hit 49% over 1757 graded, of which 936 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Alperen Sengun has 3 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: HOU has 2 OUT
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ HOU has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceNone: no book quotes both sides (model read only)
Implied probabilityn/a
Fair pricen/a
Pulled10/26, 8:25 PM ET
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.59 vs 0.5
3 games this season, 6 games last season, 67% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropBLOCKS
Games81
Current games3
Prior games6
›All model inputs (21)
Variance0.92
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propBLOCKS
games81
current_games3
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched78
current_mean0.330
prior_mean1.09
current_weight0.670
role_shift1
variance_floor0.800
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4871144
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamHOU
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Alperen Sengun · Over the number
model projects 0.59
The best move
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
53%
-
47%
1.57 (-174)
-16.8%
1
24%
29%
47%
2.95 (+195) fair
-
1.5
24%
-
76%
3.49 (+249)
(-15.3%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
-174
-
DK implied, with vig (this side): 63.5%
Line history
We only have one price for this so far. Movement shows up after our next check.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Alperen Sengun · BLK vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 0.8
LAST 10
80%
8/10 over · avg 1.0
LAST 20
70%
14/20 over · avg 1.1
SEASON
50%
2/4 over · avg 0.5
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 6 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 16 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.57 (-174) the price needs 64% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
ATL
Out · 2
Mouhamed GueyeOUT
Oct 19: Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.
Henri VeesaarOUT
Sep 21: Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.
HOU
Out · 1
Steven AdamsOUT
Oct 26: Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could be out "a week or two" due to his right soleus strain, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Marcus SmartDTD
Oct 27: Smart (arm) is out for Monday's game against the Hawks.
Game log
Alperen Sengun · Blocks vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 0.5
2
0
1
0
1
LALDALSAATLATL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 27vsATLW1Hit
Oct 25@ATLW0Miss
Oct 24@SAW1Hit
Oct 22vsDALW0Miss
May 2vsLALL2Hit
Apr 30@LALW1Hit
Apr 27vsLALW1Hit
Apr 25vsLALL1Hit
Apr 22@LALL2Hit
Apr 19@LALL1Hit
Apr 11vsMINL1Hit
Apr 10vsPHIW0Miss
Apr 8@PHXW0Miss
Apr 6@GSW2Hit
Apr 4vsUTAHW0Miss
Apr 2vsMILW1Hit
Apr 1vsNYW0Miss
Mar 29@NOW3Hit
Mar 28@MEMW2Hit
Mar 26@MINL4Hit
Mar 24@CHIL2Hit
Mar 22vsMIAW0Miss
Mar 21vsATLW0Miss
Mar 19vsLALL0Miss
Mar 12@DENL3Hit
Mar 11vsTORW0Miss
Mar 9@SAL0Miss
Mar 7vsPORW1Hit
Mar 6vsGSL0Miss
Mar 3@WSHW1Hit
Feb 28@MIAL0Miss
Feb 27@ORLW1Hit
Feb 26vsSACW3Hit
Feb 24vsUTAHW2Hit
Feb 22@NYL3Hit
Feb 20@CHAW1Hit
Feb 12vsLACL3Hit
Feb 11vsLACW0Miss
Feb 7@OKCW3Hit
Feb 6vsCHAL1Hit
Feb 5vsBOSL1Hit
Feb 3@INDW0Miss
Feb 1vsDALW0Miss
Jan 30@ATLW3Hit
Jan 29vsSAL0Miss
Jan 27vsMEMW0Miss
Jan 24@DETW0Miss
Jan 23@PHIL2Hit
Jan 21vsSAW2Hit
Jan 19vsNOW1Hit
Jan 17vsMINW1Hit
Jan 16vsOKCL1Hit
Jan 14vsCHIW1Hit
Jan 12@SACL1Hit
Jan 4@DALL0Miss
Jan 1@BKNW1Hit
Dec 26@LALW0Miss
Dec 24@LACL1Hit
Dec 22@SACL2Hit
Dec 20@DENW1Hit
Dec 19@NOL2Hit
Dec 16@DENL1Hit
Dec 12vsLACW0Miss
Dec 4vsSACW0Miss
Dec 2@UTAHL5Hit
Nov 30@UTAHW0Miss
Nov 27@GSW0Miss
Nov 25@PHXW1Hit
Nov 22vsDENL0Miss
Nov 20@CLEW1Hit
Nov 17vsORLW2Hit
Nov 15vsPORW3Hit
Nov 13vsWSHW0Miss
Nov 9@MILW0Miss
Nov 8@SAL1Hit
Nov 6@MEMW1Hit
Nov 4vsDALW0Miss
Nov 2@BOSW2Hit
Oct 29@TORW2Hit
Oct 28vsBKNW0Miss
Oct 25vsDETL0Miss
Oct 21@OKCL1Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 64% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 12 replayed days of NBA, this market moves 1.1pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 2% of the time (mean 0.01 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 153 players quoting player_blocks, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Role
Alperen Sengun, HOU C. Season vs last 3 games.
Role
Season (4)
Last 3
Change
Minutes
34.3
35.7
= +1.4
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
19.7%
20.7%
= +1.0 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
