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2 games this season, 55 games last season, 33% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
7.5
UNDER
7.5
Our win %
53%
Market %
47%
Edge
+5.8pp
Market
Reb + Ast 7.5
DK
+100
Projection7.3vs7.5(0.2 under)
Edge
+5.8pp
EV
5.3%
Alpha Score
12
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy up to 8: an exact 8 returns your stake (7% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
53% to hitrange 44-61%price needs 50%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +100 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Reb + Ast projection 7.3 average, 7.0 typical game vs line 7.5
›Reb + Ast is right skewed: a few big games lift the average above the typical game, so the model prices the typical game.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Reb + Ast edges have not held up: over 206 graded plays, a bigger model gap to the line has not meant a better result. This card is priced at the market, not at the model.
›Calibration: NBA Reb + Ast plays predicted ~51% have hit 58% over 128 graded, of which 128 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 5.8pp.
›Early season: Daniel Gafford has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: DAL has 2 OUT
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ DAL has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 7.5)46.9%
Fair price1.88 · -113
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/24, 7:51 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line7.28 vs 7.5
2 games this season, 55 games last season, 33% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropRA
Games57
Current games2
Prior games55
›All model inputs (21)
Variance4.09
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propRA
games57
current_games2
prior_games55
prior_games_fetched55
current_mean6
prior_mean7.93
current_weight0.330
role_shift0
variance_floor2.60
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4278049
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamDAL
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Daniel Gafford · Under the number
model projects 6.99
The best move
Buy this under up to 8: an exact 8 returns your stake instead of losing (7% of outcomes), same win chance as the 7.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
7
46%
7%
46%
2.00 (-100) fair
-
7.5nowbest EV
54%
-
46%
2.00 (+100)
+7.5%
8push-safe
54%
7%
39%
1.72 (-138) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 47% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
7.5
-131
+100
DK implied, with vig (this side): 50.0%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 12?
TOTAL
12/100
Win prob+22.9/ 55
Calibrated win probability 53%
Market+-9.4/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (47% our side)
Price+13.2/ 15
5.3% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 27; published as 12 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SA
Out · 2
Tobias HarrisOUT
Oct 24: Harris (calf) is out for Saturday's game against the Mavericks.
Jayden QuaintanceOUT
Oct 5: Quaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
DAL
Out · 6
Caleb MartinOUT
Oct 25: Martin (thumb) is listed as doubtful for Monday's game against the Heat.
Cooper FlaggOUT
Oct 25: Flagg (shoulder) is questionable to play Monday against the Heat.
Naji MarshallOUT
Oct 25: Marshall (illness) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Heat.
Tarik BiberovicOUT
Oct 24: Biberovic (heel) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against San Antonio.
Santi AldamaOUT
Oct 24: Aldama (knee) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Spurs.
Dereck Lively IIOUT
Oct 22: Lively (foot) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Pacers.
Role
Daniel Gafford, F. Last season with DAL (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (55)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
21.7
17.0
= -4.7
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
7.5%
7.8%
= +0.3 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Daniel Gafford · Reb + Ast vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 6.8
LAST 10
40%
4/10 under · avg 8.2
LAST 20
35%
7/20 under · avg 8.8
SEASON
33%
1/3 under · avg 7.7
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 2.00 (+100) the price needs 50% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Daniel Gafford · Reb + Ast vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 7.5
4
7
4
8
11
ORLLALHOUINDSA
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 25vsSAL11Miss
Oct 23@INDW8Miss
Oct 22@HOUL4Hit
Apr 5vsLALW7Hit
Apr 4vsORLL4Hit
Apr 1@MILL4Hit
Mar 31vsMINL10Miss
Mar 24vsGSL12Miss
Mar 22vsLACL14Miss
Mar 19vsATLL8Miss
Mar 13@MEMW15Miss
Mar 10@ATLL11Miss
Mar 8@TORL14Miss
Mar 6@ORLL14Miss
Mar 4@CHAL8Miss
Mar 2vsOKCL9Miss
Feb 28vsMEML5Hit
Feb 25@BKNW5Hit
Feb 22@INDW8Miss
Feb 21@MINL6Hit
Feb 13@LALL7Hit
Feb 11@PHXL4Hit
Feb 7@SAL6Hit
Feb 6vsSAL12Miss
Feb 4vsBOSL13Miss
Feb 1@HOUL12Miss
Jan 30vsCHAL7Hit
Jan 29vsMINL6Hit
Jan 25vsLALL3Hit
Jan 15vsDENL10Miss
Jan 11@CHIL7Hit
Jan 9@UTAHL7Hit
Jan 7@SACW13Miss
Jan 4vsHOUW9Miss
Jan 2vsPHIL5Hit
Dec 30@PORL10Miss
Dec 27@SACL8Miss
Dec 25@GSL5Hit
Dec 24vsDENW3Hit
Dec 23@NOL5Hit
Dec 21@PHIL4Hit
Dec 19vsDETW7Hit
Dec 16@UTAHL4Hit
Dec 4vsMIAW5Hit
Nov 29@LALL4Hit
Nov 25@MIAL11Miss
Nov 23vsMEML12Miss
Nov 22vsNOW10Miss
Nov 20vsNYL10Miss
Nov 17vsPORW8Miss
Nov 15vsLACL9Miss
Nov 13vsPHXL9Miss
Nov 11vsMILL11Miss
Nov 9@WSHW5Hit
Nov 8@MEML1Hit
Nov 6vsNOL8Miss
Nov 4@HOUL5Hit
Nov 2@DETL7Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 7.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 50% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
