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2 games this season, 59 games last season, 33% on this season↻ New team · was MIA
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
23.5
UNDER
23.5
Our win %
57%
Market %
52%
Edge
+5.1pp
Market
Pts + Ast 23.5
DK
-124
Projection23.3vs23.5(0.2 under)
Edge
+5.1pp
EV
2.9%
Alpha Score
1
Recommended
0.88u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 3.54u
◆Best lineBuy up to 24: an exact 24 returns your stake (5% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
57% to hitrange 47-66%price needs 55%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -124 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Pts + Ast projection 23.3 vs line 23.5
›New team: 23.0 is his MIA role from last season. With 2 CHI games yet, the projection is pulled 56% of the way to the 23.5 line.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26. 8 of the L10 games were with MIA, a different team.
H2H 1/1: 2026 (1 game), all with MIA, a different team (2026 MIA: 21)
Last 10 gamesline 23.5
›
Prop market fair P(under) 52% across 1 book
›Pts + Ast edges have not held up: over 251 graded plays, a bigger model gap to the line has not meant a better result. This card is priced at the market, not at the model.
›Calibration: NBA Pts + Ast plays predicted ~50% have hit 60% over 73 graded, of which 73 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 5.1pp.
›Early season: Norman Powell has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. He has changed teams since his MIA games, so the role is a guess. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: CHI has 2 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ CHI has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 23.5)51.8%
Fair price2.08 · +108
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/24, 7:51 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line23.28 vs 23.5
2 games this season, 59 games last season, 33% on this season↻ New team · was MIA
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropPA
Games61
Current games2
Prior games59
›All model inputs (24)
Variance6.48
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propPA
games61
current_games2
prior_games59
prior_games_fetched59
current_mean21
prior_mean24
current_weight0.330
role_shift0
variance_floor5
opp_adj1
player_espn_id2595516
season2026
team_change1
prior_teamMIA
model_median23
new_team_shrink_weight0.440
new_team_shrink_line23.50
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Norman Powell · Under the number
model projects 23.28
The best move
Buy this under up to 24: an exact 24 returns your stake instead of losing (5% of outcomes), same win chance as the 23.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
14.5
16%
-
84%
6.10 (+510) fair
-
19.5
33%
-
67%
3.02 (+202) fair
-
23
46%
5%
49%
2.06 (+106) fair
-
23.5now
51%
-
49%
1.81 (-124)
-7.8%
24push-safe
51%
5%
44%
1.87 (-115) fair
-
24.5
56%
-
44%
1.80 (-125) fair
-
29.5
76%
-
24%
1.32 (-317) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 52% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
23.5
-106
-124
DK implied, with vig (this side): 55.4%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 1?
TOTAL
1/100
Win prob+35.8/ 55
Calibrated win probability 57%
Market+5.5/ 15
Market consensus 52% on our side
Price+7.1/ 15
2.9% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 48; published as 1 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
WSH
Out · 3
AJ DybantsaOUT
Oct 24: Dybantsa (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Bulls.
Tristan VukcevicOUT
Oct 1: The Wizards announced Thursday that Vukcevic (hip) will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Jamir WatkinsOUT
Jul 30: The Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.
CHI
Out · 3
Patrick WilliamsOUT
Oct 24: Williams (groin) is out for Saturday's game versus the Wizards, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Noa EssengueOUT
Oct 24: Essengue (head) won't suit up for Saturday's game against the Wizards, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Nic ClaxtonOUT
Oct 19: Claxton (hamstring) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, K.C. Johnson of Chicago Sports Network reports.
Role
Norman Powell, G. Last season with MIA (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (58)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
29.6
21.3
▼ -8.3
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
17.7%
15.0%
= -2.7 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Norman Powell · Pts + Ast vs 23.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 20.4
LAST 10
80%
8/10 under · avg 18.4
LAST 20
75%
15/20 under · avg 20.0
SEASON
67%
2/3 under · avg 21.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26. 7 of the L10 games were with MIA, a different team.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.81 (-124) the price needs 55% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Norman Powell · Pts + Ast vs 23.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 23.5
27
12
16
26
21
ATLCHATORMILWSH
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 25vsWSHL21Hit
Oct 23@MILW26Miss
Oct 21@TORL16Hit
Apr 14@CHAL12Hit
Apr 12vsATLW27Miss
Apr 9@TORL7Hit
Apr 7@TORL14Hit
Mar 27@CLEL17Hit
Mar 25@CLEW21Hit
Mar 23vsSAL23Hit
Mar 20vsLALL23Hit
Mar 17@CHAL20Hit
Mar 15vsORLL23Hit
Feb 27@PHIL5Hit
Feb 25@MILL26Miss
Feb 22vsMEMW31Miss
Feb 21@ATLW17Hit
Feb 8@WSHW21Hit
Feb 7@BOSL28Miss
Jan 30@CHIW22Hit
Jan 29vsORLL23Hit
Jan 26@PHXW17Hit
Jan 25@UTAHW19Hit
Jan 23@PORL19Hit
Jan 21@SACW24Miss
Jan 20@GSL24Miss
Jan 18vsOKCW23Hit
Jan 16vsBOSL28Miss
Jan 14vsPHXW30Miss
Jan 11@INDL7Hit
Jan 7@MINL25Miss
Jan 4vsNOW37Miss
Jan 3vsMINL22Hit
Jan 2@DETW38Miss
Dec 30vsDENW29Miss
Dec 28vsINDW25Miss
Dec 27@ATLW30Miss
Dec 24vsTORL23Hit
Dec 21@NYL25Miss
Dec 20@BOSL21Hit
Dec 19@BKNW26Miss
Dec 16vsTORL24Miss
Dec 9@ORLL23Hit
Dec 7vsSACL19Hit
Dec 6@ORLL32Miss
Dec 2vsLACW33Miss
Nov 30vsDETL31Miss
Nov 27vsMILW13Hit
Nov 23@PHIW33Miss
Nov 22@CHIW21Hit
Nov 20vsGSW28Miss
Nov 18vsNYW22Hit
Nov 15@NYL38Miss
Nov 13vsCLEL32Miss
Nov 11vsCLEW35Miss
Nov 9vsPORW25Miss
Nov 8vsCHAW28Miss
Nov 6@DENL23Hit
Nov 4@LACW23Hit
Oct 26vsNYW32Miss
Oct 25@MEMW17Hit
Oct 22@ORLL32Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 23.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 55% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
