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2 games this season, 54 games last season, 33% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
16.5
UNDER
16.5
Our win %
58%
Market %
52%
Edge
+5.8pp
Market
Reb + Ast 16.5
DK
-115
Projection16.0vs16.5(0.5 under)
Edge
+5.8pp
EV
7.9%
Alpha Score
24
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy up to 17: an exact 17 returns your stake (4% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
58% to hitrange 49-66%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -115 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Reb + Ast projection 16.0 average, 15.3 typical game vs line 16.5
›Reb + Ast is right skewed: a few big games lift the average above the typical game, so the model prices the typical game.
›Edge test fails: our 1.2 gap is only 7% of the 16.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26.
H2H 0/1: 2025 (1 game) (2025 CHI: 23)
Last 10 gamesline 16.5
›Prop market fair P(under) 52% across 2 books
›Reb + Ast edges have not held up: over 206 graded plays, a bigger model gap to the line has not meant a better result. This card is priced at the market, not at the model.
›Calibration: NBA Reb + Ast plays predicted ~51% have hit 58% over 128 graded, of which 128 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 5.8pp.
›Early season: Josh Giddey has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: CHI has 2 OUT
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ CHI has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 16.5)51.9%
Fair price2.08 · +108
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/24, 7:51 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line15.96 vs 16.5
2 games this season, 54 games last season, 33% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropRA
Games56
Current games2
Prior games54
›All model inputs (21)
Variance6.65
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propRA
games56
current_games2
prior_games54
prior_games_fetched54
current_mean13
prior_mean17.44
current_weight0.330
role_shift0
variance_floor2.60
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4871145
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamCHI
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Josh Giddey · Under the number
model projects 15.32
The best move
Buy this under up to 17: an exact 17 returns your stake instead of losing (4% of outcomes), same win chance as the 16.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
16
51%
4%
45%
1.88 (-114) fair
-
16.5nowbest EV
55%
-
45%
1.87 (-115)
+3.4%
17push-safe
55%
4%
40%
1.73 (-137) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 52% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD
16.5
+104
-132
DK★ Best
16.5
-114
-115
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.5%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 24?
TOTAL
24/100
Win prob+38.1/ 55
Calibrated win probability 58%
Market+5.7/ 15
Market consensus 52% on our side
Price+15/ 15
7.9% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 59; published as 24 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Oct 24: Dybantsa (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Bulls.
Tristan VukcevicOUT
Oct 1: The Wizards announced Thursday that Vukcevic (hip) will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Jamir WatkinsOUT
Jul 30: The Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.
CHI
Out · 3
Patrick WilliamsOUT
Oct 24: Williams (groin) is out for Saturday's game versus the Wizards, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Noa EssengueOUT
Oct 24: Essengue (head) won't suit up for Saturday's game against the Wizards, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Nic ClaxtonOUT
Oct 19: Claxton (hamstring) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, K.C. Johnson of Chicago Sports Network reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYWSH
2-1
L102-1
StreakW1
Road1-0
Point diff+2
HOMECHI
1-2
L101-2
StreakL1
Home0-1
Point diff-13.3
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Role
Josh Giddey, G. Last season with CHI (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (54)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
32.1
31.3
= -0.8
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
15.5%
10.7%
▼ -4.8 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Josh Giddey · Reb + Ast vs 16.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 14.2
LAST 10
30%
3/10 under · avg 17.8
LAST 20
30%
6/20 under · avg 18.4
SEASON
67%
2/3 under · avg 14.7
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.87 (-115) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Josh Giddey · Reb + Ast vs 16.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 16.5
17
10
13
13
18
SANYTORMILWSH
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 25vsWSHL18Miss
Oct 23@MILW13Hit
Oct 21@TORL13Hit
Apr 3@NYL10Hit
Mar 31@SAL17Miss
Mar 29@MEML23Miss
Mar 28@OKCL18Miss
Mar 25@PHIL21Miss
Mar 24vsHOUW20Miss
Mar 20vsCLEL25Miss
Mar 19vsTORL3Hit
Mar 17vsMEMW28Miss
Mar 14@LACL21Miss
Mar 13@LALL23Miss
Mar 11@GSW30Miss
Mar 9@SACL22Miss
Mar 4vsOKCL18Miss
Mar 1vsMILW24Miss
Feb 27vsPORL15Hit
Feb 25vsCHAL7Hit
Feb 23vsNYL8Hit
Feb 22vsDETL9Hit
Feb 20vsTORL9Hit
Jan 29@INDL11Hit
Jan 27vsLALL13Hit
Jan 25vsBOSW18Miss
Jan 23@MINW11Hit
Dec 30vsMINL7Hit
Dec 28vsMILL16Hit
Dec 27vsPHIW17Miss
Dec 24@ATLW26Miss
Dec 21@ATLW21Miss
Dec 20@CLEW13Hit
Dec 18vsCLEW22Miss
Dec 15vsNOL12Hit
Dec 13@CHAW18Miss
Dec 8vsGSL8Hit
Dec 6vsINDL13Hit
Dec 4vsBKNL22Miss
Dec 2@ORLL15Hit
Nov 30@INDL18Miss
Nov 29@CHAL20Miss
Nov 25@NOL13Hit
Nov 23vsWSHW23Miss
Nov 22vsMIAL20Miss
Nov 20@PORW18Miss
Nov 18@DENW20Miss
Nov 17@UTAHL26Miss
Nov 9@CLEL15Hit
Nov 8@MILL21Miss
Nov 5vsPHIW27Miss
Nov 3@NYL23Miss
Nov 1vsNYW19Miss
Oct 30vsSACW20Miss
Oct 28vsATLW18Miss
Oct 25@ORLW11Hit
Oct 23vsDETW16Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 16.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
