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Blocks + Steals 1.5 · PHI · vs MIL · Bucks at 76ers
2 games this season, 87 games last season, 33% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
59%
Market %
53%
Edge
+6.5pp
Market
Blocks + Steals 1.5
DK
-130
Projection1.9vs1.5(0.4 over)
Edge
+6.5pp
EV
4.9%
Alpha Score
2
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (19% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
59% to hitrange 53-65%price needs 57%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -130 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Blocks + Steals projection 1.9 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(over) 59% sits 7pp off the market. Blocks + Steals has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Calibration: NBA Blocks + Steals plays predicted ~64% have hit 66% over 44 graded, of which 44 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 1.5pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 2.5 floor for Blocks + Steals. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Early season: VJ Edgecombe has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: PHI has 2 OUT
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ PHI has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 1.5)52.8%
Fair price1.89 · -112
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/24, 7:25 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.91 vs 1.5
2 games this season, 87 games last season, 33% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
Games89
Current games2
Prior games87
Prior games fetched87
›All model inputs (21)
Variance1.20
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propBLOCKS_STEALS
games89
current_games2
prior_games87
prior_games_fetched87
current_mean2
prior_mean1.86
current_weight0.330
role_shift0
variance_floor1.20
opp_adj1
player_espn_id5124612
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamPHI
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
VJ Edgecombe · Over the number
model projects 1.91
The best move
Buy this over down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (19% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1push-safe
59%
19%
21%
1.36 (-277) fair
-
1.5nowbest EV
59%
-
41%
1.77 (-130)
+5%
2
37%
23%
41%
2.11 (+111) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 53% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
1.5
-130
-102
DK implied, with vig (this side): 56.5%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 2?
TOTAL
2/100
Win prob+42.9/ 55
Calibrated win probability 59%
Market+8.4/ 15
Market consensus 53% on our side
Price+12.3/ 15
4.9% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 56; published as 2 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
No reported absences.
PHI
Out · 6
VJ EdgecombeOUT
Oct 25: Edgecombe (abdomen) is out for Sunday's game against the Pistons, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Tacko FallOUT
Oct 25: Fall (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Detroit.
Jabari WalkerOUT
Oct 25: Walker has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Pistons due to left knee soreness.
Joel EmbiidOUT
Oct 25: Embiid has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Detroit due to right plantar fasciitis management.
Dominick BarlowOUT
Oct 19: Barlow will miss at least the next two weeks of action due to a lumbar spine bone stress response, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Ariel HukportiOUT
Oct 6: Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Role
VJ Edgecombe, G. Last season with PHI (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (75)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
35.0
37.0
= +2.0
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
14.0%
14.6%
= +0.6 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
VJ Edgecombe · Blocks + Steals vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 2.0
LAST 10
40%
4/10 over · avg 1.5
LAST 20
55%
11/20 over · avg 1.8
SEASON
67%
2/3 over · avg 2.3
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.77 (-130) the price needs 57% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
VJ Edgecombe · Blocks + Steals vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 1.5
2
1
1
3
3
NYNYNYCLEMIL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 24vsMILW3Hit
Oct 22vsCLEW3Hit
Oct 20@NYW1Miss
May 10vsNYL1Miss
May 8vsNYL2Hit
May 6@NYL1Miss
May 5@NYL1Miss
May 2@BOSW0Miss
May 1vsBOSW2Hit
Apr 28@BOSW1Miss
Apr 26vsBOSL1Miss
Apr 24vsBOSL2Hit
Apr 21@BOSW2Hit
Apr 19@BOSL2Hit
Apr 15vsORLW1Miss
Apr 12vsMILW1Miss
Apr 10@INDW4Hit
Apr 10@HOUL2Hit
Apr 7@SAL2Hit
Apr 4vsDETL3Hit
Apr 3vsMINW2Hit
Apr 1@WSHW0Miss
Mar 30@MIAL2Hit
Mar 28@CHAW0Miss
Mar 25vsCHIW1Miss
Mar 23vsOKCL1Miss
Mar 22@UTAHW1Miss
Mar 20@SACW2Hit
Mar 18@DENL1Miss
Mar 15vsPORW2Hit
Mar 14vsBKNW3Hit
Mar 12@DETL2Hit
Mar 10vsMEMW3Hit
Mar 4vsSAL3Hit
Mar 2@BOSL3Hit
Feb 27vsMIAW3Hit
Feb 25@INDW2Hit
Feb 23@MINW2Hit
Feb 22@NOL0Miss
Feb 20vsATLL2Hit
Feb 12vsNYL1Miss
Feb 10@PORL2Hit
Feb 8@PHXW0Miss
Feb 6@LALL4Hit
Feb 4@GSW2Hit
Feb 3@LACW1Miss
Feb 1vsNOW1Miss
Jan 30vsSACW3Hit
Jan 28vsMILW3Hit
Jan 26@CHAL1Miss
Jan 24vsNYL1Miss
Jan 23vsHOUW3Hit
Jan 21vsPHXL3Hit
Jan 20vsINDW0Miss
Jan 17vsCLEL1Miss
Jan 15vsCLEL3Hit
Jan 13@TORW1Miss
Jan 11@TORL2Hit
Jan 10@ORLW2Hit
Jan 8vsWSHW5Hit
Jan 6vsDENL4Hit
Jan 4@NYW4Hit
Jan 2@DALW5Hit
Dec 31@MEMW5Hit
Dec 28@OKCL0Miss
Dec 27@CHIL1Miss
Dec 21vsDALW0Miss
Dec 20@NYW3Hit
Dec 14@ATLL1Miss
Dec 13vsINDW2Hit
Dec 8vsLALL0Miss
Dec 6@MILW0Miss
Dec 5vsGSW3Hit
Dec 3vsWSHW4Hit
Nov 30vsATLL2Hit
Nov 21@MILW0Miss
Nov 20vsTORL5Hit
Nov 18vsLACW0Miss
Nov 15@DETL1Miss
Nov 12vsBOSW2Hit
Nov 10vsDETL2Hit
Nov 9vsTORW3Hit
Nov 6@CLEL0Miss
Nov 5@CHIL2Hit
Nov 2@BKNW3Hit
Oct 31vsBOSL0Miss
Oct 28@WSHW1Miss
Oct 27vsORLW2Hit
Oct 25vsCHAW4Hit
Oct 22@BOSW1Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 57% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
