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2 games this season, 34 games last season, 33% on this season↻ New team · was MIA
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
22%
Market %
-
Edge
-6.5pp
Market
Double-Double 0.5
DK
+1620
Projection0.3vs0.5(0.2 under)
Edge
-6.5pp
EV
n/a
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readClears
22% to hitrange 12-32%price needs 6%
Even at the low end of our projection this still beats the price. The whole range is profitable.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +1620 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Double-Double model P(yes) 28% from the hit rate over 36 logged games (recent games weighted up), priced P(yes) 21%
›New team: 0.0 is his MIA role from last season. With 2 MIL games yet, the projection is pulled 56% of the way to the 0.5 line.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.2 gap is inside the model's own error bar. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26. 8 of the L10 games were with MIA, a different team.
H2H 0/2: 2026 (2 games), all with MIA, a different team (2026 MIA: 0, 2026 MIA: 0)
Last 10 gamesline 0.5
›No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. Model read only: no stake, tracked at WATCH or below.
›Calibration: NBA Double-Double plays predicted ~19% have hit 12% over 325 graded, of which 325 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.5pp.
›Early season: Tyler Herro has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. He has changed teams since his MIA games, so the role is a guess. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Opponent PHI missing 2, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
Sharp anchor
SourceNone: no book quotes both sides (model read only)
Implied probabilityn/a
Fair pricen/a
Pulled10/24, 7:25 PM ET
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.28 vs 0.5
2 games this season, 34 games last season, 33% on this season↻ New team · was MIA
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
Games36
Current games2
Prior games34
Prior games fetched34
›All model inputs (24)
Variance0.30
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propDOUBLE_DOUBLE
games36
current_games2
prior_games34
prior_games_fetched34
current_mean0
prior_mean0
current_weight0.330
role_shift0
variance_floor0.300
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4395725
season2026
team_change1
prior_teamMIA
model_median0
new_team_shrink_weight0.440
new_team_shrink_line0.500
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Tyler Herro · Over the number
model projects 0.28
The best move
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (493.3% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
34%
-
66%
17.20 (+1620)
(+493.3%)
1
3%
32%
66%
24.62 (+2362) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
No reported absences.
PHI
Out · 4
LeBron JamesOUT
Oct 24: James (back) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Bucks, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Tacko FallOUT
Oct 23: Fall (quadriceps) is out for Saturday's game against the Bucks.
Dominick BarlowOUT
Oct 19: Barlow will miss at least the next two weeks of action due to a lumbar spine bone stress response, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Ariel HukportiOUT
Oct 6: Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Joel EmbiidDTD
Oct 24: Embiid produced 28 points (8-20 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 12-14 FT), 11 rebounds, 10 assists, one steal and four turnovers across 36 minutes in Saturday's 127-116 win over the Bucks.
Jabari WalkerDTD
Oct 24: Walker (ankle) exited Saturday's 127-116 win over the Bucks in the third quarter and did not return, finishing with six points (2-3 FG, 2-3 FT), three rebounds, one assist and one steal across 12 minutes.
Role
Tyler Herro, G. Last season with MIA (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (33)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
31.2
26.7
= -4.5
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
16.4%
10.1%
▼ -6.3 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Tyler Herro · Double-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/5 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/10 over · avg 0.0
LAST 20
0%
0/20 over · avg 0.0
SEASON
0%
0/3 over · avg 0.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26. 7 of the L10 games were with MIA, a different team.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 17.20 (+1620) the price needs 6% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Tyler Herro · Double-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/5 over
Line 0.5
0
0
0
0
0
ATLCHAWSHCHIPHI
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 24@PHIL0Miss
Oct 23vsCHIL0Miss
Oct 21@WSHL0Miss
Apr 14@CHAL0Miss
Apr 12vsATLW0Miss
Apr 9@TORL0Miss
Apr 7@TORL0Miss
Apr 1vsBOSL0Miss
Mar 30vsPHIW0Miss
Mar 29@INDL0Miss
Mar 27@CLEL0Miss
Mar 25@CLEW0Miss
Mar 23vsSAL0Miss
Mar 22@HOUL0Miss
Mar 20vsLALL0Miss
Mar 17@CHAL0Miss
Mar 15vsORLL0Miss
Mar 8vsDETW0Miss
Mar 7@CHAW0Miss
Mar 6vsBKNW0Miss
Mar 4vsBKNW0Miss
Feb 28vsHOUW0Miss
Feb 27@PHIL0Miss
Feb 25@MILL0Miss
Feb 22vsMEMW0Miss
Feb 21@ATLW0Miss
Jan 16vsBOSL0Miss
Jan 14vsPHXW0Miss
Jan 12@OKCL0Miss
Jan 11@INDL0Miss
Jan 7@MINL0Miss
Dec 9@ORLL0Miss
Dec 4@DALL0Miss
Dec 2vsLACW0Miss
Nov 30vsDETL0Miss
Nov 27vsMILW0Miss
Nov 25vsDALW0Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 6% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
