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Blocks + Steals 1.5 · PHI · vs MIL · Bucks at 76ers
2 games this season, 78 games last season, 33% on this season↻ New team · was BOS
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
50%
Market %
46%
Edge
+3.8pp
Market
Blocks + Steals 1.5
DK
+101
Projection1.5vs1.5(on the line)
Edge
+3.8pp
EV
1.0%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.26u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 1.03u
◆Best lineBuy up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (22% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
50% to hitrange 42-59%price needs 50%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +101 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Blocks + Steals projection 1.5 vs line 1.5
›New team: 1.5 is his BOS role from last season. With 2 PHI games yet, the projection is pulled 56% of the way to the 1.5 line.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26. 8 of the L10 games were with BOS, a different team.
H2H 2/3: 2026 (2 games), 2025 (1 game), all with BOS, a different team (2026 BOS: 2, 2026 BOS: 1, 2025 BOS: 0)
Last 10 gamesline 1.5
›
Prop market fair P(under) 46% across 1 book
›Calibration: NBA Blocks + Steals plays predicted ~61% have hit 61% over 64 graded, of which 64 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 0.0pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 2.5 floor for Blocks + Steals. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Jaylen Brown has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. He has changed teams since his BOS games, so the role is a guess. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: PHI has 2 OUT
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ PHI has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 1.5)46.5%
Fair price1.87 · -115
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/24, 7:25 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.49 vs 1.5
2 games this season, 78 games last season, 33% on this season↻ New team · was BOS
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
Games80
Current games2
Prior games78
Prior games fetched78
›All model inputs (24)
Variance1.20
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propBLOCKS_STEALS
games80
current_games2
prior_games78
prior_games_fetched78
current_mean1.50
prior_mean1.45
current_weight0.330
role_shift0
variance_floor1.20
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3917376
season2026
team_change1
prior_teamBOS
model_median1.47
new_team_shrink_weight0.440
new_team_shrink_line1.50
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jaylen Brown · Under the number
model projects 1.49
The best move
Buy this under up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (22% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1
29%
22%
50%
2.74 (+174) fair
-
1.5nowbest EV
50%
-
50%
2.01 (+101)
+1%
2push-safe
50%
22%
28%
1.56 (-178) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 47% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
No reported absences.
PHI
Out · 6
VJ EdgecombeOUT
Oct 25: Edgecombe (abdomen) is out for Sunday's game against the Pistons, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Tacko FallOUT
Oct 25: Fall (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Detroit.
Jabari WalkerOUT
Oct 25: Walker has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Pistons due to left knee soreness.
Joel EmbiidOUT
Oct 25: Embiid has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Detroit due to right plantar fasciitis management.
Dominick BarlowOUT
Oct 19: Barlow will miss at least the next two weeks of action due to a lumbar spine bone stress response, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Ariel HukportiOUT
Oct 6: Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Role
Jaylen Brown, G. Last season with BOS (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (71)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
34.4
35.7
= +1.3
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
26.8%
25.8%
= -1.0 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Jaylen Brown · Blocks + Steals vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 1.8
LAST 10
30%
3/10 under · avg 2.0
LAST 20
40%
8/20 under · avg 1.6
SEASON
33%
1/3 under · avg 2.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26. 7 of the L10 games were with BOS, a different team.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 2.01 (+101) the price needs 50% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jaylen Brown · Blocks + Steals vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Line 1.5
0
3
2
1
3
PHIPHINYCLEMIL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 24vsMILW3Miss
Oct 22vsCLEW1Hit
Oct 20@NYW2Miss
May 2vsPHIL3Miss
May 1@PHIL0Hit
Apr 28vsPHIL1Hit
Apr 26@PHIW2Miss
Apr 24@PHIW4Miss
Apr 21vsPHIL2Miss
Apr 19vsPHIW2Miss
Apr 10vsNOW1Hit
Apr 8vsCHAW2Miss
Apr 5vsTORW2Miss
Apr 4@MILW2Miss
Apr 1@MIAW0Hit
Mar 30@ATLL1Hit
Mar 25vsOKCW2Miss
Mar 23vsMINL0Hit
Mar 21@MEMW0Hit
Mar 18vsGSW2Miss
Mar 16vsPHXW2Miss
Mar 14vsWSHW1Hit
Mar 13@OKCL3Miss
Mar 11@SAL1Hit
Mar 8@CLEW0Hit
Mar 7vsDALW2Miss
Mar 5vsCHAL0Hit
Mar 2vsPHIW0Hit
Feb 28vsBKNW3Miss
Feb 26@DENL3Miss
Feb 22@LALW3Miss
Feb 20@GSW0Hit
Feb 12vsCHIW0Hit
Feb 8vsNYL2Miss
Feb 7vsMIAW1Hit
Feb 4@DALW1Hit
Feb 1vsMILW1Hit
Jan 29vsATLL1Hit
Jan 27vsPORW4Miss
Jan 25@CHIL2Miss
Jan 24@BKNW1Hit
Jan 22vsINDW3Miss
Jan 20@DETL1Hit
Jan 18@ATLW2Miss
Jan 16@MIAW0Hit
Jan 11vsSAL0Hit
Jan 10vsTORW0Hit
Jan 8vsDENL1Hit
Jan 6vsCHIW0Hit
Jan 4@LACW0Hit
Jan 2@SACW0Hit
Dec 31@UTAHW2Miss
Dec 28@PORL0Hit
Dec 27@INDW4Miss
Dec 23vsINDW3Miss
Dec 20vsMIAW1Hit
Dec 16vsDETL4Miss
Dec 12@MILL0Hit
Dec 7@TORW2Miss
Dec 6vsLALW1Hit
Dec 3vsNYW1Hit
Nov 30@CLEW1Hit
Nov 29@MINL6Miss
Nov 26vsDETW4Miss
Nov 23vsORLW1Hit
Nov 22vsBKNL2Miss
Nov 19@BKNW1Hit
Nov 16vsLACW3Miss
Nov 13vsMEMW0Hit
Nov 12@PHIL0Hit
Nov 9@ORLW2Miss
Nov 8@ORLL1Hit
Nov 6vsWSHW1Hit
Nov 4vsUTAHL2Miss
Nov 2vsHOUL1Hit
Oct 31@PHIW2Miss
Oct 29vsCLEW2Miss
Oct 28@NOW0Hit
Oct 26@DETL0Hit
Oct 24@NYL2Miss
Oct 22vsPHIL0Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 50% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
