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77 games last season, 0% on this season↻ New team · was CLE
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
62%
Market %
64%
Edge
-2.3pp
Market
3-PT Made 0.5
DK
-218
Projection0.7vs0.5(0.2 over)
Edge
-2.3pp
EV
-9.5%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
62% to hitrange 55-69%price needs 69%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -218 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›3-PT Made projection 0.7 average, 0.7 typical game vs line 0.5
›New team: 1.2 is his CLE role from last season. With no PHI games yet, the projection is pulled 70% of the way to the 0.5 line.
›Model read P(over) 54% sits 11pp off the market. 3-PT Made has earned a 2.3pp lean over 235 graded plays, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. 10 of the L10 games were with CLE, a different team.
H2H 2/4: 2026 (2 games), 2025 (2 games), all with CLE, a different team (2026 CLE: 1, 2026 CLE: 0, 2025 CLE: 1, 2025 CLE: 0)
Last 10 gamesline 0.5
›
3-PT Made is right skewed: a few big games lift the average above the typical game, so the model prices the typical game.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 64% across 1 book
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Early season: no Dean Wade games this season yet, so this is priced off last season (77 games). He has changed teams since his CLE games, so the role is a guess. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: player DAY_TO_DAY: Dean Wade · PHI has 2 OUT
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ player DAY_TO_DAY: Dean Wade
⚠ PHI has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)64.3%
Fair price1.56 · -180
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/24, 7:25 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.70 vs 0.5
77 games last season, 0% on this season↻ New team · was CLE
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropTHREES_MADE
Games77
Current games0
Prior games77
›All model inputs (24)
Variance1.10
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propTHREES_MADE
games77
current_games0
prior_games77
prior_games_fetched77
current_meannull
prior_mean1.16
current_weight0
role_shift0
variance_floor1.10
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3912848
season2026
team_change1
prior_teamCLE
model_median1.16
new_team_shrink_weight0.300
new_team_shrink_line0.500
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Dean Wade · Over the number
model projects 0.66
The best move
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
54%
-
46%
1.54 (-186)
-17.3%
1
31%
23%
46%
2.50 (+150) fair
-
1.5
31%
-
69%
3.80 (+280)
(+17.5%)
2.5
15%
-
85%
11.00 (+1000)
(+61.6%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 64% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
-218
+163
DK implied, with vig (this side): 68.6%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+51.2/ 55
Calibrated win probability 62%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 64% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 48; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
No reported absences.
PHI
Out · 6
VJ EdgecombeOUT
Oct 25: Edgecombe (abdomen) is out for Sunday's game against the Pistons, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Tacko FallOUT
Oct 25: Fall (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Detroit.
Jabari WalkerOUT
Oct 25: Walker has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Pistons due to left knee soreness.
Joel EmbiidOUT
Oct 25: Embiid has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Detroit due to right plantar fasciitis management.
Dominick BarlowOUT
Oct 19: Barlow will miss at least the next two weeks of action due to a lumbar spine bone stress response, Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com reports.
Ariel HukportiOUT
Oct 6: Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Role
Dean Wade, F. Last season with CLE (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (59)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
22.4
19.7
= -2.7
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
4.7%
2.7%
= -2.0 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 12 replayed days of NBA, this market moves 1.7pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 14% of the time (mean 0.07 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 125 players quoting player_threes, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
★ RECENT FORM
Dean Wade · 3PM vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 1.2
LAST 10
60%
6/10 over · avg 0.9
LAST 20
80%
16/20 over · avg 1.1
SEASON
100%
1/1 over · avg 2.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 9 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 19 from 2025-26. 9 of the L10 games were with CLE, a different team.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.46 (-218) the price needs 69% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Dean Wade · 3-PT Made vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 0.5
3
1
0
0
2
NYNYNYNYMIL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 24vsMILW2Hit
May 26vsNYL0Miss
May 24vsNYL0Miss
May 22@NYL1Hit
May 20@NYL3Hit
May 18@DETW1Hit
May 15vsDETL1Hit
May 14@DETW0Miss
May 12vsDETW0Miss
May 9vsDETW1Hit
May 7@DETL2Hit
May 5@DETL1Hit
May 3vsTORW1Hit
May 1@TORL2Hit
Apr 29vsTORW1Hit
Apr 26@TORL1Hit
Apr 24@TORL1Hit
Apr 20vsTORW1Hit
Apr 18vsTORW1Hit
Apr 10@ATLL1Hit
Apr 8vsATLW2Hit
Mar 25vsORLW0Miss
Mar 21@NOW1Hit
Mar 20@CHIW0Miss
Mar 18@MILW1Hit
Mar 15vsDALL2Hit
Mar 13@DALW1Hit
Mar 11@ORLL0Miss
Mar 9vsPHIW3Hit
Mar 8vsBOSL1Hit
Feb 26@MILL0Miss
Feb 25vsNYW3Hit
Feb 22@OKCL0Miss
Feb 21@CHAW2Hit
Feb 20vsBKNW3Hit
Feb 5@LACW1Hit
Feb 2@PORW2Hit
Jan 31@PHXL1Hit
Jan 29vsLALW2Hit
Jan 27vsORLW0Miss
Jan 25@ORLW2Hit
Jan 24vsSACW2Hit
Jan 22@CHAW0Miss
Jan 19vsOKCL0Miss
Jan 7@INDW1Hit
Dec 31vsPHXW1Hit
Dec 30@SAW2Hit
Dec 28@HOUL2Hit
Dec 25@NYL1Hit
Dec 24vsNOW3Hit
Dec 23vsCHAW4Hit
Dec 20vsCHIL0Miss
Dec 18@CHIL0Miss
Dec 14vsCHAL3Hit
Dec 13@WSHW0Miss
Dec 7vsGSL1Hit
Dec 6vsSAW2Hit
Dec 4vsPORL0Miss
Dec 2@INDW1Hit
Nov 30vsBOSL1Hit
Nov 29@ATLL1Hit
Nov 23vsLACW1Hit
Nov 22vsINDW0Miss
Nov 20vsHOUL1Hit
Nov 18vsMILW1Hit
Nov 15vsMEMW0Miss
Nov 14vsTORL0Miss
Nov 13@MIAW2Hit
Nov 11@MIAL3Hit
Nov 9vsCHIW0Miss
Nov 6vsPHIW0Miss
Nov 2vsATLW2Hit
Oct 31vsTORL1Hit
Oct 29@BOSL2Hit
Oct 27@DETW1Hit
Oct 26vsMILW0Miss
Oct 24@BKNW1Hit
Oct 22@NYL3Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 69% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
