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2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this season↻ New team · was CLERole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
46%
Edge
+8.3pp
Market
Steals 0.5
DK
+102
Projection0.4vs0.5(0.1 under)
Edge
+8.3pp
EV
10.4%
Alpha Score
26
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (25% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readClears
55% to hitrange 50-59%price needs 50%
Even at the low end of our projection this still beats the price. The whole range is profitable.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +102 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Steals projection 0.4 vs line 0.5
›New team: 0.3 is his CLE role from last season. With 2 CHA games yet, the projection is pulled 56% of the way to the 0.5 line.
›Model read P(under) 53% sits 7pp off the market. Steals has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26. 8 of the L10 games were with CLE, a different team.
H2H 2/3: 2026 (3 games), all with CLE/SAC, a different team (2026 CLE: 1, 2026 CLE: 0, 2026 SAC: 0)
Last 10 gamesline 0.5
›
Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 46% across 1 book
›Calibration: NBA Steals plays predicted ~59% have hit 62% over 2145 graded, of which 1107 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 3.3pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Dennis Schroder has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. He has changed teams since his CLE games, so the role is a guess. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: CHA has 2 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ CHA has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 0.5)46.3%
Fair price1.86 · -116
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/24, 5:53 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.39 vs 0.5
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this season↻ New team · was CLERole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropSTEALS
Games49
Current games2
Prior games6
›All model inputs (24)
Variance1.03
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propSTEALS
games49
current_games2
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched47
current_mean0
prior_mean0.620
current_weight0.570
role_shift1
variance_floor0.900
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3032979
season2026
team_change1
prior_teamCLE
model_median0.260
new_team_shrink_weight0.440
new_team_shrink_line0.500
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Dennis Schroder · Under the number
model projects 0.39
The best move
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (25% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5nowbest EV
53%
-
47%
2.02 (+102)
+7.3%
1push-safe
53%
25%
22%
1.42 (-239) fair
-
1.5
78%
-
22%
1.29 (-350) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 46% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIA
No reported absences.
CHA
Out · 4
Grant WilliamsOUT
Oct 24: Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Heat.
Coby WhiteOUT
Oct 24: White (calf) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against Miami.
Kon KnueppelOUT
Oct 24: Knueppel (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Heat.
Kylan BoswellOUT
Oct 20: Boswell (knee) is out for Wednesday's season opener against the Nets.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 12 replayed days of NBA, this market moves 1.3pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 6% of the time (mean 0.03 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 149 players quoting player_steals, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Role
Dennis Schroder, G. Last season with CLE (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (30)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
21.3
20.0
= -1.3
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
8.2%
9.3%
= +1.1 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Dennis Schroder · STL vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
5/5 under · avg 0.0
LAST 10
70%
7/10 under · avg 0.3
LAST 20
75%
15/20 under · avg 0.3
SEASON
100%
3/3 under · avg 0.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26. 7 of the L10 games were with CLE, a different team.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 2.02 (+102) the price needs 50% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Dennis Schroder · Steals vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
100%5/5 under
Line 0.5
0
0
0
0
0
NYNYBKNATLMIA
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 24vsMIAW0Hit
Oct 23vsATLL0Hit
Oct 21@BKNW0Hit
May 24vsNYL0Hit
May 22@NYL0Hit
May 20@NYL1Miss
May 18@DETW1Miss
May 15vsDETL0Hit
May 14@DETW0Hit
May 12vsDETW1Miss
May 9vsDETW0Hit
May 7@DETL0Hit
May 5@DETL0Hit
May 3vsTORW0Hit
May 1@TORL2Miss
Apr 29vsTORW0Hit
Apr 26@TORL1Miss
Apr 24@TORL0Hit
Apr 20vsTORW0Hit
Apr 18vsTORW0Hit
Apr 10@ATLL2Miss
Apr 8vsATLW0Hit
Apr 7@MEMW0Hit
Apr 5vsINDW0Hit
Apr 3@GSW1Miss
Apr 1@LALL1Miss
Mar 31@UTAHW1Miss
Mar 27vsMIAW1Miss
Mar 25vsMIAL0Hit
Mar 25vsORLW0Hit
Mar 21@NOW0Hit
Mar 20@CHIW1Miss
Mar 18@MILW0Hit
Mar 15vsDALL0Hit
Mar 13@DALW1Miss
Mar 11@ORLL0Hit
Mar 9vsPHIW0Hit
Mar 8vsBOSL0Hit
Mar 4vsDETW0Hit
Mar 1@BKNW1Miss
Feb 28@DETL1Miss
Feb 26@MILL1Miss
Feb 25vsNYW2Miss
Feb 22@OKCL1Miss
Feb 21@CHAW3Miss
Feb 20vsBKNW1Miss
Feb 12vsWSHW0Hit
Feb 10@DENW2Miss
Feb 8@SACW0Hit
Feb 5@LACW3Miss
Jan 31@BOSL1Miss
Jan 30@PHIL1Miss
Jan 28@NYL2Miss
Jan 25@DETL1Miss
Jan 24@CLEL0Hit
Jan 22vsTORL0Hit
Jan 21vsMIAL0Hit
Jan 19vsPORL1Miss
Jan 17vsWSHW0Hit
Jan 10@GSL1Miss
Jan 7vsDALL1Miss
Jan 5vsMILL2Miss
Jan 3@PHXL0Hit
Jan 2vsBOSL0Hit
Dec 31@LACL0Hit
Dec 29@LALL2Miss
Dec 27vsDALW3Miss
Dec 24vsDETL1Miss
Dec 22vsHOUW0Hit
Dec 21vsPORL1Miss
Dec 19@PORL0Hit
Dec 15@MINL0Hit
Nov 25vsMINW0Hit
Nov 23@DENW0Hit
Nov 21@MEML0Hit
Nov 20@OKCL0Hit
Nov 16@SAL1Miss
Nov 15@MINL1Miss
Nov 13vsATLL1Miss
Nov 12vsDENL0Hit
Nov 10vsMINL1Miss
Nov 8vsOKCL0Hit
Nov 6vsGSW0Hit
Nov 4@DENL1Miss
Nov 1@MILW2Miss
Oct 30@CHIL2Miss
Oct 29@OKCL1Miss
Oct 27vsLALL1Miss
Oct 25vsUTAHW2Miss
Oct 23@PHXL2Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 50% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
