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2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this season↻ New team · was CLERole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
9.5
UNDER
9.5
Our win %
60%
Market %
54%
Edge
+5.8pp
Market
Reb + Ast 9.5
DK
-137
Projection8.5vs9.5(1.0 under)
Edge
+5.8pp
EV
4.1%
Alpha Score
6
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy up to 10: an exact 10 returns your stake (9% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
60% to hitrange 53-67%price needs 58%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -137 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Reb + Ast projection 8.5 average, 8.2 typical game vs line 9.5
›New team: 7.3 is his CLE role from last season. With 2 CHA games yet, the projection is pulled 56% of the way to the 9.5 line.
›Reb + Ast is right skewed: a few big games lift the average above the typical game, so the model prices the typical game.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26. 8 of the L10 games were with CLE, a different team.
H2H 2/3: 2026 (3 games), all with CLE/SAC, a different team (2026 CLE: 5, 2026 CLE: 12, 2026 SAC: 4)
Last 10 gamesline 9.5
Edge test fails: our 1.3 gap is only 14% of the 9.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
›Prop market fair P(under) 54% across 2 books
›Reb + Ast edges have not held up: over 206 graded plays, a bigger model gap to the line has not meant a better result. This card is priced at the market, not at the model.
›Calibration: NBA Reb + Ast plays predicted ~51% have hit 58% over 128 graded, of which 128 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 5.8pp.
›Early season: Dennis Schroder has 2 games this season, so last season still carries most of the number. He has changed teams since his CLE games, so the role is a guess. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: CHA has 2 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ CHA has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 9.5)54.4%
Fair price2.19 · +119
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/24, 5:53 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line8.51 vs 9.5
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this season↻ New team · was CLERole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropRA
Games49
Current games2
Prior games6
›All model inputs (24)
Variance2.99
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propRA
games49
current_games2
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched47
current_mean8.50
prior_mean5.62
current_weight0.570
role_shift1
variance_floor2.60
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3032979
season2026
team_change1
prior_teamCLE
model_median7.26
new_team_shrink_weight0.440
new_team_shrink_line9.50
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Dennis Schroder · Under the number
model projects 8.17
The best move
Buy this under up to 10: an exact 10 returns your stake instead of losing (9% of outcomes), same win chance as the 9.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
9
53%
10%
37%
1.69 (-144) fair
-
9.5nowbest EV
63%
-
37%
1.73 (-137)
+9.1%
10push-safe
63%
9%
28%
1.45 (-224) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 54% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD
9.5
+108
-138
DK★ Best
9.5
+104
-137
DK implied, with vig (this side): 57.8%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 6?
TOTAL
6/100
Win prob+45.5/ 55
Calibrated win probability 60%
Market+13.2/ 15
Market consensus 54% on our side
Price+10.2/ 15
4.1% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 69; published as 6 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Role
Dennis Schroder, G. Last season with CLE (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (30)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
21.3
20.0
= -1.3
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
8.2%
9.3%
= +1.1 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Dennis Schroder · Reb + Ast vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 7.2
LAST 10
80%
8/10 under · avg 5.9
LAST 20
90%
18/20 under · avg 4.7
SEASON
33%
1/3 under · avg 9.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26. 7 of the L10 games were with CLE, a different team.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.73 (-137) the price needs 58% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIA
No reported absences.
CHA
Out · 4
Grant WilliamsOUT
Oct 24: Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Heat.
Coby WhiteOUT
Oct 24: White (calf) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against Miami.
Kon KnueppelOUT
Oct 24: Knueppel (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Heat.
Kylan BoswellOUT
Oct 20: Boswell (knee) is out for Wednesday's season opener against the Nets.
Game log
Dennis Schroder · Reb + Ast vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 9.5
7
2
10
7
10
NYNYBKNATLMIA
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 24vsMIAW10Miss
Oct 23vsATLL7Hit
Oct 21@BKNW10Miss
May 24vsNYL2Hit
May 22@NYL7Hit
May 20@NYL5Hit
May 18@DETW6Hit
May 15vsDETL5Hit
May 14@DETW5Hit
May 12vsDETW2Hit
May 9vsDETW3Hit
May 7@DETL8Hit
May 5@DETL4Hit
May 3vsTORW2Hit
May 1@TORL1Hit
Apr 29vsTORW2Hit
Apr 26@TORL5Hit
Apr 24@TORL1Hit
Apr 20vsTORW5Hit
Apr 18vsTORW3Hit
Apr 10@ATLL6Hit
Apr 8vsATLW4Hit
Apr 7@MEMW16Miss
Apr 5vsINDW5Hit
Apr 3@GSW8Hit
Apr 1@LALL6Hit
Mar 31@UTAHW7Hit
Mar 27vsMIAW5Hit
Mar 25vsMIAL12Miss
Mar 25vsORLW3Hit
Mar 21@NOW2Hit
Mar 20@CHIW5Hit
Mar 18@MILW6Hit
Mar 15vsDALL7Hit
Mar 13@DALW11Miss
Mar 11@ORLL2Hit
Mar 9vsPHIW3Hit
Mar 8vsBOSL5Hit
Mar 4vsDETW10Miss
Mar 1@BKNW6Hit
Feb 28@DETL10Miss
Feb 26@MILL7Hit
Feb 25vsNYW7Hit
Feb 22@OKCL11Miss
Feb 21@CHAW3Hit
Feb 20vsBKNW6Hit
Feb 12vsWSHW5Hit
Feb 10@DENW5Hit
Feb 8@SACW7Hit
Feb 5@LACW8Hit
Jan 31@BOSL7Hit
Jan 30@PHIL6Hit
Jan 28@NYL5Hit
Jan 25@DETL8Hit
Jan 24@CLEL8Hit
Jan 22vsTORL4Hit
Jan 21vsMIAL4Hit
Jan 19vsPORL5Hit
Jan 17vsWSHW6Hit
Jan 10@GSL6Hit
Jan 7vsDALL10Miss
Jan 5vsMILL8Hit
Jan 3@PHXL4Hit
Jan 2vsBOSL10Miss
Dec 31@LACL7Hit
Dec 29@LALL9Hit
Dec 27vsDALW7Hit
Dec 24vsDETL5Hit
Dec 22vsHOUW17Miss
Dec 21vsPORL11Miss
Dec 19@PORL8Hit
Dec 15@MINL4Hit
Nov 25vsMINW14Miss
Nov 23@DENW10Miss
Nov 21@MEML8Hit
Nov 20@OKCL8Hit
Nov 16@SAL11Miss
Nov 15@MINL12Miss
Nov 13vsATLL7Hit
Nov 12vsDENL3Hit
Nov 10vsMINL5Hit
Nov 8vsOKCL10Miss
Nov 6vsGSW14Miss
Nov 4@DENL13Miss
Nov 1@MILW12Miss
Oct 30@CHIL9Hit
Oct 29@OKCL8Hit
Oct 27vsLALL14Miss
Oct 25vsUTAHW8Hit
Oct 23@PHXL8Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 9.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 58% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
