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1 game this season, 78 games last season, 20% on this season↻ New team · was LAL
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
27%
Market %
-
Edge
-5.5pp
Market
Double-Double 0.5
FANATICS
+850
Projection0.3vs0.5(0.2 under)
Edge
-5.5pp
EV
n/a
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readClears
27% to hitrange 17-37%price needs 11%
Even at the low end of our projection this still beats the price. The whole range is profitable.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +850 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Double-Double model P(yes) 32% from the hit rate over 79 logged games (recent games weighted up), priced P(yes) 27%
›New team: 0.0 is his LAL role from last season. With 1 LAC game yet, the projection is pulled 63% of the way to the 0.5 line.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.2 gap is inside the model's own error bar. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
Card ID: c-401909851-RuiHachimura-DOUBLE_DOUBLEPublished 10/24/2026, 1:54:28 AM
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
SZN
0%
0/1
H2H
-
OPP
-
›
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. Model read only: no stake, tracked at WATCH or below.
›Calibration: NBA Double-Double plays predicted ~19% have hit 13% over 202 graded, of which 202 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 5.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Rui Hachimura has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. He has changed teams since his LAL games, so the role is a guess. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: LAC has 3 OUT
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ LAC has 3 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceNone: no book quotes both sides (model read only)
Implied probabilityn/a
Fair pricen/a
Pulled10/23, 9:54 PM ET
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.32 vs 0.5
1 game this season, 78 games last season, 20% on this season↻ New team · was LAL
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
Games79
Current games1
Prior games78
Prior games fetched78
›All model inputs (24)
Variance0.30
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propDOUBLE_DOUBLE
games79
current_games1
prior_games78
prior_games_fetched78
current_mean0
prior_mean0.010
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor0.300
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4066648
season2026
team_change1
prior_teamLAL
model_median0.010
new_team_shrink_weight0.370
new_team_shrink_line0.500
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Rui Hachimura · Over the number
model projects 0.32
The best move
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (253.1% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
37%
-
63%
9.50 (+850)
(+253.1%)
1
3%
34%
63%
21.23 (+2023) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Oct 14: Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.
Max StrusOUT
Oct 5: Strus has been diagnosed with a partially torn plantar fascia in his right foot and he will be re-evaluated in four weeks, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Yanic Konan NiederhauserOUT
Sep 28: Niederhauser (foot) won't be ready for the start of the season, Law Murray of The Athletic reports.
Jordan MillerOUT
Aug 26: Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.
LAL
Out · 3
Jake LaRaviaOUT
Oct 23: LaRavia (ankle) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Clippers, Mark Medina of TheSportingTribune.com reports.
Adou ThieroOUT
Oct 22: Thiero (knee) is out for Friday's game against the Clippers.
Cameron CarrOUT
Oct 22: Carr (oblique) is out for Friday's game against the Clippers.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
1-1
L101-1
StreakL1
Road0-1
Point diff+8.5
HOMELAL
2-0
L102-0
StreakW2
Home2-0
Point diff+15
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Rui Hachimura · Double-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/5 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/10 over · avg 0.0
LAST 20
5%
1/20 over · avg 0.1
SEASON
0%
0/2 over · avg 0.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26. 8 of the L10 games were with LAL, a different team.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 9.50 (+850) the price needs 11% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Role
Rui Hachimura, F. Last season with LAL (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (68)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
28.3
30.0
= +1.7
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
8.9%
13.8%
▲ +4.9 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
Game log
Rui Hachimura · Double-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/5 over
Line 0.5
0
0
0
0
0
OKCOKCOKCSACLAL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 24@LALL0Miss
Oct 22vsSACW0Miss
May 12vsOKCL0Miss
May 10vsOKCL0Miss
May 8@OKCL0Miss
May 6@OKCL0Miss
May 2@HOUW0Miss
Apr 30vsHOUL0Miss
Apr 27@HOUL0Miss
Apr 25@HOUW0Miss
Apr 22vsHOUW0Miss
Apr 19vsHOUW0Miss
Apr 13vsUTAHW1Hit
Apr 11vsPHXW0Miss
Apr 10@GSW0Miss
Apr 8vsOKCL0Miss
Apr 5@DALL0Miss
Apr 3@OKCL0Miss
Apr 1vsCLEW0Miss
Mar 31vsWSHW0Miss
Mar 28vsBKNW0Miss
Mar 21@ORLW0Miss
Mar 20@MIAW0Miss
Mar 19@HOUW0Miss
Mar 17@HOUW0Miss
Mar 15vsDENW0Miss
Mar 13vsCHIW0Miss
Mar 11vsMINW0Miss
Mar 8vsNYW0Miss
Mar 7vsINDW0Miss
Mar 6@DENL0Miss
Mar 4vsNOW0Miss
Mar 2vsSACW0Miss
Feb 25vsORLL0Miss
Feb 22vsBOSL0Miss
Feb 21vsLACW0Miss
Feb 13vsDALW0Miss
Feb 11vsSAL0Miss
Feb 10vsOKCL0Miss
Feb 8vsGSW0Miss
Feb 6vsPHIW0Miss
Feb 4@BKNW0Miss
Feb 2@NYL0Miss
Jan 31@WSHW0Miss
Jan 29@CLEL0Miss
Jan 27@CHIW0Miss
Jan 25@DALW0Miss
Jan 23@LACL0Miss
Jan 21@DENW0Miss
Jan 19vsTORW0Miss
Jan 18@PORL0Miss
Jan 16vsCHAL0Miss
Jan 14vsATLW0Miss
Dec 29vsSACW0Miss
Dec 26vsHOUL0Miss
Dec 19@UTAHW0Miss
Dec 15@PHXW0Miss
Dec 11vsSAL0Miss
Dec 8@PHIW0Miss
Dec 6@BOSL0Miss
Dec 5@TORW0Miss
Dec 2vsPHXL0Miss
Dec 1vsNOW0Miss
Nov 29vsDALW0Miss
Nov 26vsLACW0Miss
Nov 24@UTAHW0Miss
Nov 19vsUTAHW0Miss
Nov 15@NOW0Miss
Nov 13@OKCL0Miss
Nov 11@CHAW0Miss
Nov 9@ATLL0Miss
Nov 6vsSAW0Miss
Nov 4@PORW0Miss
Nov 3vsMIAW0Miss
Nov 1@MEMW0Miss
Oct 30@MINW0Miss
Oct 28vsPORL0Miss
Oct 27@SACW0Miss
Oct 25vsMINW0Miss
Oct 22vsGSL0Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 11% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
