Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
Triple-Double 0.5 · LAL · vs LAC · Clippers at Lakers
1 game this season, 57 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
1%
Market %
-
Edge
+0.0pp
Market
Triple-Double 0.5
FD
+10000
Projection0.0vs0.5(0.5 under)
Edge
+0.0pp
EV
n/a
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
1% to hitrange 0-5%price needs 1%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +10000 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Triple-Double model P(yes) 0% from the hit rate over 58 logged games (recent games weighted up), priced P(yes) 1%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.5 gap is inside the model's own error bar. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
›No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. Model read only: no stake, tracked at WATCH or below.
Card ID: c-401909851-AustinReaves-TRIPLE_DOUBLEPublished 10/24/2026, 1:54:28 AM
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Austin Reaves has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Opponent LAC missing 3, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceNone: no book quotes both sides (model read only)
Implied probabilityn/a
Fair pricen/a
Pulled10/23, 9:54 PM ET
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.00 vs 0.5
1 game this season, 57 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
Games58
Current games1
Prior games57
Prior games fetched57
›All model inputs (21)
Variance0.15
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propTRIPLE_DOUBLE
games58
current_games1
prior_games57
prior_games_fetched57
current_mean0
prior_mean0
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor0.150
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4066457
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamLAL
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Austin Reaves · Over the number
model projects 0
The best move
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (977.6% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
11%
-
89%
101.00 (+10000)
(+977.6%)
1
0%
10%
89%
526.25 (+52525) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Oct 14: Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.
Max StrusOUT
Oct 5: Strus has been diagnosed with a partially torn plantar fascia in his right foot and he will be re-evaluated in four weeks, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Yanic Konan NiederhauserOUT
Sep 28: Niederhauser (foot) won't be ready for the start of the season, Law Murray of The Athletic reports.
Jordan MillerOUT
Aug 26: Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.
LAL
Out · 3
Jake LaRaviaOUT
Oct 23: LaRavia (ankle) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Clippers, Mark Medina of TheSportingTribune.com reports.
Adou ThieroOUT
Oct 22: Thiero (knee) is out for Friday's game against the Clippers.
Cameron CarrOUT
Oct 22: Carr (oblique) is out for Friday's game against the Clippers.
Role
Austin Reaves, G. Last season with LAL (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (51)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
34.6
30.3
= -4.2
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
20.1%
17.2%
= -2.9 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
1-0
L101-0
StreakW1
Road0-0
Point diff+25
HOMELAL
1-0
L101-0
StreakW1
Home1-0
Point diff+22
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Austin Reaves · Triple-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/5 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/10 over · avg 0.0
LAST 20
0%
0/20 over · avg 0.0
SEASON
0%
0/1 over · avg 0.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 9 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 19 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 101.00 (+10000) the price needs 1% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Austin Reaves · Triple-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/5 over
Line 0.5
0
0
0
0
0
OKCOKCOKCOKCGS
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 22vsGSW0Miss
May 12vsOKCL0Miss
May 10vsOKCL0Miss
May 8@OKCL0Miss
May 6@OKCL0Miss
May 2@HOUW0Miss
Apr 30vsHOUL0Miss
Apr 3@OKCL0Miss
Apr 1vsCLEW0Miss
Mar 31vsWSHW0Miss
Mar 28vsBKNW0Miss
Mar 25@INDW0Miss
Mar 23@DETL0Miss
Mar 21@ORLW0Miss
Mar 20@MIAW0Miss
Mar 19@HOUW0Miss
Mar 17@HOUW0Miss
Mar 15vsDENW0Miss
Mar 13vsCHIW0Miss
Mar 11vsMINW0Miss
Mar 8vsNYW0Miss
Mar 7vsINDW0Miss
Mar 6@DENL0Miss
Mar 4vsNOW0Miss
Mar 2vsSACW0Miss
Mar 1@GSW0Miss
Feb 27@PHXL0Miss
Feb 25vsORLL0Miss
Feb 22vsBOSL0Miss
Feb 21vsLACW0Miss
Feb 13vsDALW0Miss
Feb 10vsOKCL0Miss
Feb 8vsGSW0Miss
Feb 6vsPHIW0Miss
Feb 4@BKNW0Miss
Dec 26vsHOUL0Miss
Dec 24@PHXL0Miss
Dec 11vsSAL0Miss
Dec 8@PHIW0Miss
Dec 6@BOSL0Miss
Dec 5@TORW0Miss
Dec 2vsPHXL0Miss
Dec 1vsNOW0Miss
Nov 29vsDALW0Miss
Nov 26vsLACW0Miss
Nov 24@UTAHW0Miss
Nov 19vsUTAHW0Miss
Nov 16@MILW0Miss
Nov 15@NOW0Miss
Nov 13@OKCL0Miss
Nov 11@CHAW0Miss
Nov 3vsMIAW0Miss
Nov 1@MEMW0Miss
Oct 30@MINW0Miss
Oct 28vsPORL0Miss
Oct 27@SACW0Miss
Oct 25vsMINW0Miss
Oct 22vsGSL0Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 1% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
