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Blocks + Steals 0.5 · MEM · @ GS · Grizzlies at Warriors
1 game this season, 15 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
66%
Market %
-
Edge
-1.5pp
Market
Blocks + Steals 0.5
FANATICS
-400
Projection1.3vs0.5(0.8 over)
Edge
-1.5pp
EV
n/a
Alpha Score
47
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readPrice too short
66% to hitrange 58-72%price needs 80%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -400 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Blocks + Steals projection 1.3 vs line 0.5
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.8 gap is inside the model's own error bar. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
›No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. Model read only: no stake, tracked at WATCH or below.
Card ID: c-401909850-TyJerome-BLOCKS_STEALSPublished 10/24/2026, 1:54:28 AM
Calibration: NBA Blocks + Steals plays predicted ~61% have hit 58% over 36 graded, of which 36 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 1.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Ty Jerome has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Opponent GS missing 4, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceNone: no book quotes both sides (model read only)
Implied probabilityn/a
Fair pricen/a
Pulled10/23, 9:54 PM ET
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.27 vs 0.5
1 game this season, 15 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
Games16
Current games1
Prior games15
Prior games fetched15
›All model inputs (21)
Variance1.20
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propBLOCKS_STEALS
games16
current_games1
prior_games15
prior_games_fetched15
current_mean1
prior_mean1.33
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor1.20
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4065733
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamMEM
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Ty Jerome · Over the number
model projects 1.27
The best move
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
67%
-
33%
1.25 (-400)
-16.2%
1
45%
22%
33%
1.74 (-136) fair
-
1.5
45%
-
55%
2.15 (+115)
(-3.9%)
2.5
24%
-
76%
4.60 (+360)
(+12%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MEM
Out · 1
Zach EdeyOUT
Oct 24: Edey has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Sacramento due to left ankle injury management.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Cedric CowardDTD
Oct 24: Coward (wrist) is questionable for Sunday's game in Sacramento.
GS
Out · 7
Draymond GreenOUT
Oct 24: Green (back) won't play Saturday in Phoenix.
Al HorfordOUT
Oct 24: Horford (back) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Suns.
Stephen CurryOUT
Oct 24: Curry (rest) won't play Saturday against the Suns.
Brandin PodziemskiOUT
Oct 24: Podziemski (back) told reporters Friday that he will not play in the second leg of the Warriors' back-to-back set Saturday against the Suns, Nick Friedell of The Athletic reports.
Kristaps PorzingisOUT
Oct 21: Porzingis is contemplating his future in basketball as he deals with recurring symptoms from the autoimmune condition termed as postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Moses MoodyOUT
Oct 16: Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Jimmy Butler IIIOUT
Oct 16: Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Gui SantosDTD
Oct 25: Santos exited Saturday's 131-122 loss to the Suns with an undisclosed injury and did not return, Anthony Slater of ESPN.com reports.
Role
Ty Jerome, G. Last season with MEM (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (15)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
22.7
24.7
= +1.9
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
16.0%
14.2%
= -1.8 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Ty Jerome · Blocks + Steals vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 1.2
LAST 10
70%
7/10 over · avg 1.1
LAST 20
75%
15/20 over · avg 1.1
SEASON
100%
2/2 over · avg 1.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26 and 2024-25. 3 of the L20 games were with CLE, a different team.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.25 (-400) the price needs 80% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Ty Jerome · Blocks + Steals vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Line 0.5
1
0
3
1
1
DENBOSATLUTAHGS
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 24@GSW1Hit
Oct 22vsUTAHW1Hit
Mar 23@ATLL3Hit
Mar 21vsBOSL0Miss
Mar 19vsDENW1Hit
Mar 13@DETL0Miss
Mar 10@PHIL0Miss
Mar 8vsLACL3Hit
Mar 4@MINL1Hit
Feb 26vsGSL1Hit
Feb 22@MIAL2Hit
Feb 12@DENL2Hit
Feb 10@GSL2Hit
Feb 8@PORL2Hit
Feb 5@SACW1Hit
Feb 3vsMINW1Hit
Feb 1vsMINL1Hit
May 13vsINDL1Hit
May 12@INDL0Miss
May 9@INDW0Miss
May 6vsINDL0Miss
May 4vsINDL1Hit
Apr 28@MIAW1Hit
Apr 26@MIAW2Hit
Apr 23vsMIAW1Hit
Apr 20vsMIAW0Miss
Apr 10@INDL1Hit
Apr 8vsCHIW0Miss
Apr 6vsSACL1Hit
Mar 26@PORW0Miss
Mar 23@UTAHW1Hit
Mar 22@PHXL3Hit
Mar 20@SACL1Hit
Mar 19@LACL0Miss
Mar 16vsORLL0Miss
Mar 15@MEMW0Miss
Mar 10@MILW1Hit
Mar 8@CHAW0Miss
Mar 6vsMIAW1Hit
Mar 5@CHIW0Miss
Mar 2vsPORW6Hit
Mar 1@BOSW1Hit
Feb 26@ORLW1Hit
Feb 24vsMEMW2Hit
Feb 22vsNYW2Hit
Feb 21@BKNW1Hit
Feb 11vsMINW1Hit
Feb 8@WSHW1Hit
Feb 6@DETW0Miss
Feb 5vsBOSL0Miss
Feb 2vsDALW3Hit
Jan 31vsATLW2Hit
Jan 30@MIAW1Hit
Jan 28vsDETW0Miss
Jan 26vsHOUL0Miss
Jan 25@PHIL2Hit
Jan 23@HOUL3Hit
Jan 20vsPHXW1Hit
Jan 19@MINW1Hit
Jan 17@OKCL0Miss
Jan 10vsTORW2Hit
Jan 9vsOKCW2Hit
Jan 5vsCHAW2Hit
Jan 4@DALW0Miss
Jan 1@LALW0Miss
Dec 31@GSW1Hit
Dec 28@DENW1Hit
Dec 24vsUTAHW0Miss
Dec 22vsPHIW0Miss
Dec 21vsMILW2Hit
Dec 17@BKNW1Hit
Dec 14vsWSHW3Hit
Dec 8@MIAL0Miss
Dec 7@CHAW0Miss
Dec 6vsDENW0Miss
Dec 1vsBOSW0Miss
Nov 29@ATLL3Hit
Nov 28vsATLL3Hit
Nov 25vsTORW5Hit
Nov 21vsNOW0Miss
Nov 20@BOSL1Hit
Nov 17vsCHAW0Miss
Nov 16vsCHIW0Miss
Nov 14@PHIW0Miss
Nov 12@CHIW3Hit
Nov 10vsBKNW2Hit
Nov 9vsGSW0Miss
Nov 7@NOW2Hit
Nov 5vsMILW2Hit
Nov 3@MILW0Miss
Nov 1vsORLW2Hit
Oct 30vsLALW1Hit
Oct 28@NYW2Hit
Oct 26@WSHW1Hit
Oct 25vsDETW1Hit
Oct 23@TORW2Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 80% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
