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Reb + Ast 5.5 · MEM · @ GS · Grizzlies at Warriors
1 game this season, 72 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
50%
Market %
50%
Edge
+0.0pp
Market
Reb + Ast 5.5
FD
-111
Projection7.5vs5.5(2.0 over)
Edge
+0.0pp
EV
-5.7%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy down to 5: an exact 5 returns your stake (8% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
50% to hitrange 41-57%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -111 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Reb + Ast projection 7.5 average, 7.2 typical game vs line 5.5
›Reb + Ast is right skewed: a few big games lift the average above the typical game, so the model prices the typical game.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
Card ID: c-401909850-CamSpencer-RAPublished 10/24/2026, 1:54:28 AM
›Reb + Ast edges have not held up: over 206 graded plays, a bigger model gap to the line has not meant a better result. This card is priced at the market, not at the model.
›Baby line: 5.5 is below the 6 floor for Reb + Ast. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Cam Spencer has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Opponent GS missing 4, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 5.5)49.6%
Fair price2.02 · +102
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/23, 9:54 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line7.48 vs 5.5
1 game this season, 72 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropRA
Games73
Current games1
Prior games72
›All model inputs (21)
Variance3.27
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propRA
games73
current_games1
prior_games72
prior_games_fetched72
current_mean5
prior_mean8.10
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor2.60
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4433083
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamMEM
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Cam Spencer · Over the number
model projects 7.18
The best move
Buy this over down to 5: an exact 5 returns your stake instead of losing (8% of outcomes), same win chance as the 5.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
5push-safe
65%
8%
27%
1.42 (-239) fair
-
5.5nowbest EV
65%
-
35%
1.90 (-111)
+23.5%
6
56%
9%
35%
1.62 (-161) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.90 (-111) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Cam Spencer · Reb + Ast vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 5.5
8
9
10
5
3
PHXNYCLEUTAHGS
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 24@GSW3Miss
Oct 22vsUTAHW5Miss
Apr 7vsCLEL10Hit
Apr 2vsNYL9Hit
Mar 31vsPHXL8Hit
Mar 28vsHOUL13Hit
Mar 26vsSAL9Hit
Mar 21@CHAL5Miss
Mar 21vsBOSL8Hit
Mar 19vsDENW1Miss
Mar 17@CHIL8Hit
Mar 13@DETL7Hit
Mar 10@PHIL4Miss
Mar 9@BKNL10Hit
Mar 8vsLACL7Hit
Mar 5vsPORL14Hit
Mar 4@MINL6Hit
Mar 1@INDW7Hit
Feb 28@DALW5Miss
Feb 26vsGSL3Miss
Feb 24vsSACL6Hit
Feb 22@MIAL7Hit
Feb 21vsUTAHW13Hit
Feb 12@DENL11Hit
Feb 10@GSL8Hit
Feb 7@PORL5Miss
Feb 5@SACW8Hit
Feb 3vsMINW9Hit
Feb 1vsMINL8Hit
Jan 31@NOL4Miss
Jan 29vsCHAL6Hit
Jan 27@HOUL18Hit
Jan 24vsNOL16Hit
Jan 22vsATLL6Hit
Jan 18vsORLW3Miss
Jan 15@ORLL18Hit
Jan 11vsBKNW17Hit
Jan 10vsOKCL15Hit
Jan 8vsPHXL8Hit
Jan 7vsSAW16Hit
Jan 5@LALL11Hit
Jan 3@LALL7Hit
Dec 31vsPHIL6Hit
Dec 28@WSHL10Hit
Dec 27vsMILW10Hit
Dec 24@UTAHW16Hit
Dec 23@OKCL13Hit
Dec 21vsWSHL15Hit
Dec 16@LACW9Hit
Dec 13vsUTAHL6Hit
Dec 7vsPORW9Hit
Dec 6vsLACW12Hit
Dec 3@SAL7Hit
Dec 1@SACW3Miss
Nov 29@LACW6Hit
Nov 27@NOW9Hit
Nov 25vsDENL6Hit
Nov 23@DALW9Hit
Nov 21vsSACW8Hit
Nov 19@SAL5Miss
Nov 15@CLEL4Miss
Nov 13@BOSL5Miss
Nov 12@NYL6Hit
Nov 9vsOKCL2Miss
Nov 8vsDALW4Miss
Nov 6vsHOUL4Miss
Nov 4vsDETL5Miss
Nov 2@TORL8Hit
Nov 1vsLALL3Miss
Oct 30@PHXW8Hit
Oct 28@GSL5Miss
Oct 26vsINDW9Hit
Oct 25vsMIAL5Miss
Oct 23vsNOW2Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Cam Spencer · Reb + Ast · Bet Data Labs
Role
Cam Spencer, G. Last season with MEM (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (72)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
23.8
20.0
= -3.8
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
8.5%
7.9%
= -0.6 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYMEM
2-0
L102-0
StreakW2
Road1-0
Point diff+11.5
HOMEGS
0-2
L100-2
StreakL2
Home0-1
Point diff-12.5
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MEM
Out · 1
Zach EdeyOUT
Oct 24: Edey has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Sacramento due to left ankle injury management.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Cedric CowardDTD
Oct 24: Coward (wrist) is questionable for Sunday's game in Sacramento.
GS
Out · 7
Draymond GreenOUT
Oct 24: Green (back) won't play Saturday in Phoenix.
Al HorfordOUT
Oct 24: Horford (back) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Suns.
Stephen CurryOUT
Oct 24: Curry (rest) won't play Saturday against the Suns.
Brandin PodziemskiOUT
Oct 24: Podziemski (back) told reporters Friday that he will not play in the second leg of the Warriors' back-to-back set Saturday against the Suns, Nick Friedell of The Athletic reports.
Kristaps PorzingisOUT
Oct 21: Porzingis is contemplating his future in basketball as he deals with recurring symptoms from the autoimmune condition termed as postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Moses MoodyOUT
Oct 16: Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Jimmy Butler IIIOUT
Oct 16: Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
