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Double-Double 0.5 · NO · @ UTAH · Pelicans at Jazz
1 game this season, 72 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
3%
Market %
-
Edge
-5.5pp
Market
Double-Double 0.5
FD
+5000
Projection0.1vs0.5(0.4 under)
Edge
-5.5pp
EV
n/a
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
2% to hitrange 0-11%price needs 2%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +5000 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Double-Double model P(yes) 8% from the hit rate over 73 logged games (recent games weighted up), priced P(yes) 3%
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. Model read only: no stake, tracked at WATCH or below.
Card ID: c-401909849-SaddiqBey-DOUBLE_DOUBLEPublished 10/24/2026, 12:57:50 AM
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
SZN
0%
0/1
H2H
0%
0/2
OPP
-
H2H 0/2: 2026 (2 games) (2026 NO: 0, 2026 NO: 0)
›Calibration: NBA Double-Double plays predicted ~19% have hit 13% over 202 graded, of which 202 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 5.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Early season: Saddiq Bey has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceNone: no book quotes both sides (model read only)
Implied probabilityn/a
Fair pricen/a
Pulled10/23, 8:57 PM ET
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.08 vs 0.5
1 game this season, 72 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
Games73
Current games1
Prior games72
Prior games fetched72
›All model inputs (21)
Variance0.30
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propDOUBLE_DOUBLE
games73
current_games1
prior_games72
prior_games_fetched72
current_mean0
prior_mean0.100
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor0.300
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4397136
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamNO
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Saddiq Bey · Over the number
model projects 0.08
The best move
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (1058.4% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
23%
-
77%
51.00 (+5000)
(+1058.4%)
1
2%
21%
77%
50.31 (+4931) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Oct 24: Missi has been diagnosed with a left knee bone bruise and he will miss an extended period of time, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
UTAH
Out · 2
Trey AlexanderOUT
Oct 24: Alexander won't play Wednesday against the Grizzlies due to a left knee bone bruise.
Jusuf NurkicOUT
Oct 7: Nurkic will miss at least the next four weeks due to a partial plantar plate tear of second toe in right foot, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Role
Saddiq Bey, G. Last season with NO (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (72)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
31.2
34.3
= +3.1
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
15.1%
21.2%
▲ +6.1 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNO
0-3
L100-3
StreakL3
Road0-2
Point diff-3.3
HOMEUTAH
1-1
L101-1
StreakW1
Home1-0
Point diff-9.5
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Saddiq Bey · Double-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/5 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/10 over · avg 0.0
LAST 20
5%
1/20 over · avg 0.1
SEASON
0%
0/3 over · avg 0.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 7 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 17 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 51.00 (+5000) the price needs 2% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Saddiq Bey · Double-Double vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/5 over
Line 0.5
0
0
0
0
0
SACORLINDUTAHDEN
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 25@DENL0Miss
Oct 24@UTAHL0Miss
Oct 22vsINDL0Miss
Apr 5vsORLL0Miss
Apr 4@SACL0Miss
Apr 3@PORL0Miss
Mar 29vsHOUL0Miss
Mar 28@TORL0Miss
Mar 26@DETL0Miss
Mar 24@NYL0Miss
Mar 21vsCLEL0Miss
Mar 20vsLACW0Miss
Mar 19vsLACW0Miss
Mar 17vsDALW0Miss
Mar 14@HOUL0Miss
Mar 12vsTORW0Miss
Mar 8vsWSHW1Hit
Mar 7@PHXL0Miss
Mar 6@SACW0Miss
Mar 4@LALL0Miss
Mar 2@LACL0Miss
Mar 1@UTAHW0Miss
Feb 27@UTAHW0Miss
Feb 25vsGSW0Miss
Feb 22vsPHIW0Miss
Feb 21vsMILL0Miss
Feb 12vsMIAL0Miss
Feb 10vsSACW0Miss
Feb 7@MINW0Miss
Feb 5@MILL0Miss
Feb 2@CHAL0Miss
Feb 1@PHIL0Miss
Jan 31vsMEMW0Miss
Jan 28@OKCL1Hit
Jan 26@SAW1Hit
Jan 24@MEMW0Miss
Jan 22vsDETL0Miss
Jan 19@HOUL0Miss
Jan 17@INDL0Miss
Jan 15vsBKNW0Miss
Jan 14vsDENL0Miss
Jan 1@CHIL0Miss
Dec 30vsNYL0Miss
Dec 28vsPHXL0Miss
Dec 27vsPHXL0Miss
Dec 24@CLEL0Miss
Dec 23vsDALW0Miss
Dec 21vsINDW0Miss
Dec 19vsHOUW0Miss
Dec 15@CHIW0Miss
Dec 12vsPORW0Miss
Dec 9vsSAL0Miss
Dec 6@BKNL0Miss
Dec 5vsMINL0Miss
Dec 3vsMINL0Miss
Dec 1@LALL1Hit
Nov 30@GSL0Miss
Nov 27vsMEML1Hit
Nov 25vsCHIW1Hit
Nov 23vsATLL1Hit
Nov 22@DALL0Miss
Nov 20vsDENL0Miss
Nov 17vsGSL0Miss
Nov 15vsLALL0Miss
Nov 13vsPORL0Miss
Nov 11@PHXL0Miss
Nov 9@SAL0Miss
Nov 6@DALW0Miss
Nov 5vsCHAW0Miss
Nov 2@OKCL0Miss
Nov 1@LACL0Miss
Oct 30@DENL0Miss
Oct 28vsBOSL0Miss
Oct 25vsSAL0Miss
Oct 23@MEML0Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 2% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
