Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
Reb + Ast 7.5 · IND · vs DAL · Mavericks at Pacers
1 game this season, 76 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
7.5
UNDER
7.5
Our win %
49%
Market %
46%
Edge
+3.7pp
Market
Reb + Ast 7.5
DK
+105
Projection7.7vs7.5(0.2 over)
Edge
+3.7pp
EV
1.2%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.29u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 1.15u
◆Best lineBuy up to 8: an exact 8 returns your stake (8% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
49% to hitrange 40-58%price needs 49%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +105 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Reb + Ast projection 7.7 average, 7.4 typical game vs line 7.5
›Reb + Ast is right skewed: a few big games lift the average above the typical game, so the model prices the typical game.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Reb + Ast edges have not held up: over 206 graded plays, a bigger model gap to the line has not meant a better result. This card is priced at the market, not at the model.
›Calibration: NBA Reb + Ast plays predicted ~51% have hit 56% over 73 graded, of which 73 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 3.7pp.
›Early season: Jarace Walker has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: IND has 2 OUT
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ IND has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 7.5)45.7%
Fair price1.84 · -119
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/23, 6:49 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line7.74 vs 7.5
1 game this season, 76 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropRA
Games77
Current games1
Prior games76
›All model inputs (21)
Variance3.85
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propRA
games77
current_games1
prior_games76
prior_games_fetched76
current_mean8
prior_mean7.67
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor2.60
opp_adj1
player_espn_id5106060
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamIND
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jarace Walker · Under the number
model projects 7.43
The best move
Buy this under up to 8: an exact 8 returns your stake instead of losing (8% of outcomes), same win chance as the 7.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
7
43%
8%
49%
2.16 (+116) fair
-
7.5nowbest EV
51%
-
49%
2.05 (+105)
+3.6%
8push-safe
51%
8%
42%
1.83 (-121) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 46% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
7.5
-138
+105
DK implied, with vig (this side): 48.8%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+13.1/ 55
Calibrated win probability 49%
Market+-10/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (46% our side)
Price+3/ 15
1.2% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 6; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 6
Kyrie IrvingOUT
Oct 24: Irving is out for Saturday's game against the Spurs due to rest, Christian Clark of The Athletic reports.
Caleb MartinOUT
Oct 24: Martin (thumb) has been ruled out against San Antonio on Saturday.
Tarik BiberovicOUT
Oct 24: Biberovic (heel) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against San Antonio.
Santi AldamaOUT
Oct 24: Aldama (knee) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Spurs.
Cooper FlaggOUT
Oct 24: The Mavericks diagnosed Flagg with a mild left shoulder sprain, and the second-year forward will be re-evaluated by medical staff next week, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Dereck Lively IIOUT
Oct 22: Lively (foot) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Pacers.
IND
Out · 3
T.J. McConnellOUT
Oct 24: McConnell (hamstring) is out for Sunday's game against the Nets.
Ben SheppardOUT
Oct 23: Sheppard has been diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and is without a timetable for a return to game action, Scott Agness of FieldhouseFiles.com reports.
Johnny FurphyOUT
Feb 9: Furphy was diagnosed with a torn right ACL on Monday and will miss the remainder of the season, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Aaron NesmithDTD
Oct 24: Nesmith (hamstring) is listed as probable for Sunday's game against Brooklyn.
★ RECENT FORM
Jarace Walker · Reb + Ast vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 8.8
LAST 10
40%
4/10 under · avg 8.0
LAST 20
35%
7/20 under · avg 8.8
SEASON
50%
1/2 under · avg 5.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 2.05 (+105) the price needs 49% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Role
Jarace Walker, F. Last season with IND (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (76)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
25.7
29.0
= +3.3
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
10.8%
15.1%
▲ +4.3 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
Game log
Jarace Walker · Reb + Ast vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Line 7.5
11
17
6
8
2
MINBKNPHINODAL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 23vsDALL2Hit
Oct 22@NOW8Miss
Apr 10vsPHIL6Hit
Apr 9@BKNW17Miss
Apr 7vsMINL11Miss
Mar 27vsLACL2Hit
Mar 25vsLALL10Miss
Mar 23@ORLW7Hit
Mar 22@SAL8Miss
Mar 18vsPORL9Miss
Mar 17@NYL10Miss
Mar 15@MILL14Miss
Mar 13vsNYL12Miss
Mar 12vsPHXL8Miss
Mar 11@SACL11Miss
Mar 9@PORL4Hit
Mar 7@LALL14Miss
Mar 5@LACL10Miss
Mar 1vsMEML5Hit
Feb 27vsCHAL7Hit
Feb 25vsPHIL16Miss
Feb 22vsDALL15Miss
Feb 21@WSHL18Miss
Feb 20@WSHL21Miss
Feb 12@BKNW8Miss
Feb 8@TORL8Miss
Feb 7@MILL10Miss
Feb 4vsUTAHL10Miss
Feb 3vsHOUL5Hit
Feb 1vsATLW14Miss
Jan 29vsCHIW0Hit
Jan 26@ATLL10Miss
Jan 24@OKCW7Hit
Jan 22@BOSL5Hit
Jan 20@PHIL7Hit
Jan 18@DETL7Hit
Jan 17vsNOW4Hit
Jan 15vsTORL3Hit
Jan 13vsBOSW8Miss
Jan 11vsMIAW13Miss
Jan 9@CHAW4Hit
Jan 7vsCLEL5Hit
Jan 4@ORLL4Hit
Jan 3vsSAL0Hit
Dec 31vsORLL4Hit
Dec 30@HOUL5Hit
Dec 28@MIAL4Hit
Dec 27vsBOSL5Hit
Dec 24vsMILL2Hit
Dec 23@BOSL4Hit
Dec 21@NOL8Miss
Dec 19vsNYL4Hit
Dec 14vsWSHL3Hit
Dec 13@PHIL8Miss
Dec 9vsSACW4Hit
Dec 6@CHIW1Hit
Dec 4vsDENL3Hit
Dec 2vsCLEL8Miss
Nov 30vsCHIW3Hit
Nov 29vsWSHW8Miss
Nov 27@TORL11Miss
Nov 25vsDETL8Miss
Nov 22@CLEL4Hit
Nov 20vsCHAW4Hit
Nov 18@DETL4Hit
Nov 16vsTORL10Miss
Nov 14@PHXL6Hit
Nov 12@UTAHL1Hit
Nov 10@GSL2Hit
Nov 9@DENL7Hit
Nov 6vsBKNL12Miss
Nov 4vsMILL13Miss
Nov 1vsGSW14Miss
Oct 31vsATLL6Hit
Oct 30@DALL11Miss
Oct 26@MINL11Miss
Oct 26@MEML10Miss
Oct 23vsOKCL8Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 7.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 49% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
