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Pts + Reb + Ast 18.5 · IND · vs DAL · Mavericks at Pacers
1 game this season, 76 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
18.5
UNDER
18.5
Our win %
51%
Market %
48%
Edge
+2.9pp
Market
Pts + Reb + Ast 18.5
DK
-106
Projection17.6vs18.5(0.9 under)
Edge
+2.9pp
EV
-0.8%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
51% to hitrange 42-60%price needs 51%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -106 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Pts + Reb + Ast projection 17.6 vs line 18.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
Pts + Reb + Ast edges have not held up: over 260 graded plays, a bigger model gap to the line has not meant a better result. This card is priced at the market, not at the model.
›Calibration: NBA Pts + Reb + Ast plays predicted ~50% have hit 54% over 50 graded, of which 50 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.9pp.
›Early season: Jarace Walker has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: IND has 2 OUT
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ IND has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 18.5)48.2%
Fair price1.93 · -108
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/23, 6:49 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line17.64 vs 18.5
1 game this season, 76 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropPRA
Games77
Current games1
Prior games76
›All model inputs (21)
Variance7.72
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propPRA
games77
current_games1
prior_games76
prior_games_fetched76
current_mean11
prior_mean19.30
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor6
opp_adj1
player_espn_id5106060
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamIND
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jarace Walker · Under the number
model projects 17.64
The best move
The 18.5 is already the best line on the board (3.5% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
9.5
22%
-
78%
4.47 (+347) fair
-
14.5
38%
-
62%
2.62 (+162) fair
-
18
49%
4%
47%
1.94 (-106) fair
-
18.5nowbest EV
53%
-
47%
1.94 (-106)
+3.5%
19
53%
4%
43%
1.81 (-124) fair
-
19.5
57%
-
43%
1.75 (-133) fair
-
24.5
74%
-
26%
1.35 (-285) fair
-
29.5
86%
-
14%
1.16 (-613) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 48% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
18.5
-124
-106
DK implied, with vig (this side): 51.5%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+18.1/ 55
Calibrated win probability 51%
Market+-5.5/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (48% our side)
Price+-2.1/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 11; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 6
Kyrie IrvingOUT
Oct 24: Irving is out for Saturday's game against the Spurs due to rest, Christian Clark of The Athletic reports.
Caleb MartinOUT
Oct 24: Martin (thumb) has been ruled out against San Antonio on Saturday.
Tarik BiberovicOUT
Oct 24: Biberovic (heel) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against San Antonio.
Santi AldamaOUT
Oct 24: Aldama (knee) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Spurs.
Cooper FlaggOUT
Oct 24: The Mavericks diagnosed Flagg with a mild left shoulder sprain, and the second-year forward will be re-evaluated by medical staff next week, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Dereck Lively IIOUT
Oct 22: Lively (foot) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Pacers.
IND
Out · 3
T.J. McConnellOUT
Oct 24: McConnell (hamstring) is out for Sunday's game against the Nets.
Ben SheppardOUT
Oct 23: Sheppard has been diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and is without a timetable for a return to game action, Scott Agness of FieldhouseFiles.com reports.
Johnny FurphyOUT
Feb 9: Furphy was diagnosed with a torn right ACL on Monday and will miss the remainder of the season, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Aaron NesmithDTD
Oct 24: Nesmith (hamstring) is listed as probable for Sunday's game against Brooklyn.
Role
Jarace Walker, F. Last season with IND (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (76)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
25.7
29.0
= +3.3
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
10.8%
15.1%
▲ +4.3 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
★ RECENT FORM
Jarace Walker · PRA vs 18.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 18.2
LAST 10
30%
3/10 under · avg 19.8
LAST 20
20%
4/20 under · avg 21.9
SEASON
100%
2/2 under · avg 7.5
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.94 (-106) the price needs 51% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jarace Walker · Pts + Reb + Ast vs 18.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Line 18.5
22
31
23
11
4
MINBKNPHINODAL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 23vsDALL4Hit
Oct 22@NOW11Hit
Apr 10vsPHIL23Miss
Apr 9@BKNW31Miss
Apr 7vsMINL22Miss
Mar 27vsLACL7Hit
Mar 25vsLALL25Miss
Mar 23@ORLW27Miss
Mar 22@SAL29Miss
Mar 18vsPORL19Miss
Mar 17@NYL26Miss
Mar 15@MILL28Miss
Mar 13vsNYL30Miss
Mar 12vsPHXL20Miss
Mar 11@SACL19Miss
Mar 9@PORL18Hit
Mar 7@LALL24Miss
Mar 5@LACL27Miss
Mar 1vsMEML26Miss
Feb 27vsCHAL23Miss
Feb 25vsPHIL24Miss
Feb 22vsDALL33Miss
Feb 21@WSHL30Miss
Feb 20@WSHL40Miss
Feb 12@BKNW31Miss
Feb 8@TORL21Miss
Feb 7@MILL25Miss
Feb 4vsUTAHL34Miss
Feb 3vsHOUL17Hit
Feb 1vsATLW25Miss
Jan 29vsCHIW16Hit
Jan 26@ATLL22Miss
Jan 24@OKCW33Miss
Jan 22@BOSL24Miss
Jan 20@PHIL15Hit
Jan 18@DETL20Miss
Jan 17vsNOW10Hit
Jan 15vsTORL14Hit
Jan 13vsBOSW19Miss
Jan 11vsMIAW26Miss
Jan 9@CHAW6Hit
Jan 7vsCLEL15Hit
Jan 4@ORLL10Hit
Jan 3vsSAL11Hit
Dec 31vsORLL13Hit
Dec 30@HOUL17Hit
Dec 28@MIAL7Hit
Dec 27vsBOSL17Hit
Dec 24vsMILL6Hit
Dec 23@BOSL6Hit
Dec 21@NOL15Hit
Dec 19vsNYL10Hit
Dec 14vsWSHL15Hit
Dec 13@PHIL11Hit
Dec 9vsSACW16Hit
Dec 6@CHIW4Hit
Dec 4vsDENL14Hit
Dec 2vsCLEL15Hit
Nov 30vsCHIW7Hit
Nov 29vsWSHW18Hit
Nov 27@TORL24Miss
Nov 25vsDETL29Miss
Nov 22@CLEL10Hit
Nov 20vsCHAW13Hit
Nov 18@DETL12Hit
Nov 16vsTORL18Hit
Nov 14@PHXL8Hit
Nov 12@UTAHL12Hit
Nov 10@GSL14Hit
Nov 9@DENL15Hit
Nov 6vsBKNL18Hit
Nov 4vsMILL31Miss
Nov 1vsGSW20Miss
Oct 31vsATLL23Miss
Oct 30@DALL31Miss
Oct 26@MINL16Hit
Oct 26@MEML16Hit
Oct 23vsOKCL21Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 18.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 51% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
