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1 game this season, 82 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
Our win %
57%
Market %
58%
Edge
-1.5pp
Market
Steals 2.5
FD
-166
Projection2.4vs2.5(0.1 under)
Edge
-1.5pp
EV
-9.0%
Alpha Score
40
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy up to 3: an exact 3 returns your stake (22% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
57% to hitrange 46-67%price needs 62%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -166 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Steals projection 2.4 vs line 2.5
›Model read 2.6 pointed the other way, but the market prices the under at 53% and Steals has not earned the lean to overrule it. This card follows the market: 2.4 is the number that price implies.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Calibration: NBA Steals plays predicted ~59% have hit 62% over 2119 graded, of which 1081 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 3.5pp.
›Early season: Dyson Daniels has 1 game this season, so last season still carries most of the number. Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Opponent CHA missing 2, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 2.5)58.3%
Fair price2.40 · +140
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/23, 6:49 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.37 vs 2.5
1 game this season, 82 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropSTEALS
Games83
Current games1
Prior games82
›All model inputs (23)
Variance1.32
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propSTEALS
games83
current_games1
prior_games82
prior_games_fetched82
current_mean5
prior_mean1.95
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
variance_floor0.900
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4869342
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamATL
model_median2.56
market_overrule1
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Dyson Daniels · Under the number
model projects 2.37
The best move
Buy this under up to 3: an exact 3 returns your stake instead of losing (22% of outcomes), same win chance as the 2.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
2
30%
23%
47%
2.57 (+157) fair
-
2.5now
53%
-
47%
1.60 (-166)
-14.7%
3push-safe
53%
22%
25%
1.46 (-216) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 58% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
ATL
Out · 2
Mouhamed GueyeOUT
Oct 19: Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.
Henri VeesaarOUT
Sep 21: Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.
CHA
Out · 4
Grant WilliamsOUT
Oct 24: Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Heat.
Coby WhiteOUT
Oct 24: White (calf) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against Miami.
Kon KnueppelOUT
Oct 24: Knueppel (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Heat.
Kylan BoswellOUT
Oct 20: Boswell (knee) is out for Wednesday's season opener against the Nets.
Role
Dyson Daniels, G. Last season with ATL (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (76)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
33.2
33.7
= +0.5
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
10.5%
11.7%
= +1.2 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 12 replayed days of NBA, this market moves 1.3pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 6% of the time (mean 0.03 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 149 players quoting player_steals, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
★ RECENT FORM
Dyson Daniels · STL vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 3.0
LAST 10
60%
6/10 under · avg 2.7
LAST 20
70%
14/20 under · avg 2.5
SEASON
0%
0/2 under · avg 6.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 8 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 18 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.60 (-166) the price needs 62% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Dyson Daniels · Steals vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 2.5
2
0
1
5
7
NYNYNYORLCHA
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 23@CHAW7Miss
Oct 21@ORLW5Miss
Apr 30vsNYL1Hit
Apr 29@NYL0Hit
Apr 25vsNYL2Hit
Apr 23vsNYW3Miss
Apr 21@NYW2Hit
Apr 18@NYL3Miss
Apr 10vsCLEW2Hit
Apr 8@CLEL2Hit
Apr 6vsNYL2Hit
Apr 3@BKNW5Miss
Apr 1@ORLW1Hit
Mar 30vsBOSW2Hit
Mar 27@BOSL2Hit
Mar 25@DETW2Hit
Mar 23vsMEMW1Hit
Mar 22vsGSW4Miss
Mar 21@HOUL2Hit
Mar 19@DALW2Hit
Mar 16vsORLW1Hit
Mar 14vsMILW3Miss
Mar 10vsDALW3Miss
Mar 7vsPHIW2Hit
Mar 5@MILW0Hit
Mar 1vsPORW2Hit
Feb 27vsWSHW5Miss
Feb 25vsWSHW3Miss
Feb 22vsBKNW3Miss
Feb 21vsMIAL2Hit
Feb 20@PHIW1Hit
Feb 12@CHAL0Hit
Feb 8vsCHAL2Hit
Feb 6vsUTAHW0Hit
Feb 4@MIAW1Hit
Feb 1@INDL2Hit
Jan 30vsHOUL3Miss
Jan 29@BOSW5Miss
Jan 26vsINDW1Hit
Jan 24vsPHXW0Hit
Jan 22@MEMW0Hit
Jan 19vsMILL3Miss
Jan 16@PORL1Hit
Jan 14@LALL2Hit
Jan 12@GSW0Hit
Jan 10@DENW4Miss
Jan 8vsNOW3Miss
Jan 6@TORL0Hit
Jan 4@TORL2Hit
Jan 3@NYW2Hit
Dec 31vsMINW2Hit
Dec 30@OKCL1Hit
Dec 28vsNYL2Hit
Dec 27vsMIAL2Hit
Dec 21vsCHIL2Hit
Dec 20vsSAL0Hit
Dec 19@CHAL1Hit
Dec 14vsPHIW1Hit
Dec 13@DETL1Hit
Dec 7@WSHW0Hit
Dec 6vsDENL2Hit
Dec 4vsLACL2Hit
Dec 2@DETL4Miss
Nov 30@PHIW2Hit
Nov 29vsCLEW3Miss
Nov 26@WSHL0Hit
Nov 23vsCHAW2Hit
Nov 23@NOW1Hit
Nov 21@SAL3Miss
Nov 19vsDETL3Miss
Nov 17@PHXW3Miss
Nov 14@UTAHW1Hit
Nov 13@SACW2Hit
Nov 11@LACW3Miss
Nov 9vsLALW1Hit
Nov 8vsTORL2Hit
Nov 5vsORLW2Hit
Nov 2@CLEL4Miss
Oct 31@INDW3Miss
Oct 29@BKNW3Miss
Oct 28@CHIL3Miss
Oct 25vsOKCL1Hit
Oct 24@ORLW2Hit
Oct 22vsTORL2Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 2.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 62% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
