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◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (28% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readClears
45% to hitrange 36-53%price needs 35%
Even at the low end of our projection this still beats the price. The whole range is profitable.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +185 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Blocks projection 1.6 vs line 1.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.1 gap is only 5% of the 1.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
›No prop-market consensus available
›Calibration: NBA Blocks plays predicted ~60% have hit 50% over 1653 graded, of which 832 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
Card ID: c-401909842-KeeganMurray-BLOCKSPublished 10/22/2026, 2:22:47 AM
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
43%
10/23
H2H
0%
0/1
OPP
-
›Early season: no Keegan Murray games this season yet, so this is priced off last season (23 games). Capped at LEAN until 5 games.
›Injury kill: SAC has 3 OUT
›Opponent LAC missing 3, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ SAC has 3 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceNone: no book quotes both sides (model read only)
Implied P(over 1.5)n/a
Fair pricen/a
Pulled10/21, 10:22 PM ET
No book quotes both sides of this line, so there is no market price to measure it against. The side is our model's read only: no stake, and it is tracked at WATCH or below.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.57 vs 1.5
23 games last season, 0% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNBA
PropBLOCKS
Games23
Current games0
Prior games23
›All model inputs (21)
Variance0.82
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNBA
propBLOCKS
games23
current_games0
prior_games23
prior_games_fetched23
current_meannull
prior_mean1.57
current_weight0
role_shift0
variance_floor0.800
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4594327
season2026
team_change0
prior_teamSAC
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Keegan Murray · Over the number
model projects 1.57
The best move
Buy down to 0.5 at 1.40 (-249): win chance rises 52% to 80% and it still prices +EV (12.6%). Tightens the leg without giving up the edge.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5tighten
80%
-
20%
1.40 (-249)
+12.6%
1push-safe
52%
28%
20%
1.38 (-266) fair
-
1.5nowbest EV
52%
-
48%
2.85 (+185)
+49.1%
2
23%
30%
48%
3.10 (+210) fair
-
2.5
23%
-
77%
6.91 (+591)
(+57.2%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD
1.5
+178
-
DK★ Best
1.5
+185
-
DK implied, with vig (this side): 35.1%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 39?
TOTAL
39/100
Win prob+0/ 55
Calibrated win probability 45%
Market+6.9/ 15
Market consensus 52% on our side
Price+15/ 15
27.8% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 22; published as 39 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SAC
Out · 3
Ben SimmonsOUT
Oct 21: Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.
Dylan CardwellOUT
Oct 15: Cardwell (calf) is expected to miss at least the first five or six games of the regular season, with a longer absence possible, Frankie Cartoscelli of KHTK Sactown Sports 1140 reports.
Maxime RaynaudOUT
Oct 15: Raynaud (knee) is expected to miss at least the first five or six games of the regular season, and potentially longer, Frankie Cartoscelli of KHTK Sactown Sports 1140 reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Malik MonkDTD
Oct 22: Monk (ankle) won't play Wednesday versus the Clippers.
LAC
Out · 4
Bradley BealOUT
Oct 14: Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.
Max StrusOUT
Oct 5: Strus has been diagnosed with a partially torn plantar fascia in his right foot and he will be re-evaluated in four weeks, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Yanic Konan NiederhauserOUT
Sep 28: Niederhauser (foot) won't be ready for the start of the season, Law Murray of The Athletic reports.
Jordan MillerOUT
Aug 26: Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 12 replayed days of NBA, this market moves 1.1pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 2% of the time (mean 0.01 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 153 players quoting player_blocks, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
★ RECENT FORM
Keegan Murray · BLK vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/1 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/1 over · avg 0.0
SEASON
0%
0/1 over · avg 0.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.85 (+185) the price needs 35% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Keegan Murray · Blocks vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/1 over
Line 1.5
0
LAC
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 22@LACL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 35% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Role
Keegan Murray, F. Last season with SAC (2025-26), until he has 3 games this season.
Role
2025-26 (23)
Final 3
Change
Minutes
34.6
26.3
= -8.2
Shot share (FGA+FTA)
13.4%
11.0%
= -2.4 pts
Shot share is his field-goal plus free-throw attempts over the team's, a usage proxy.
