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◆Best lineBuy up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (18% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
53% to hitrange 46-59%price needs 55%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -120 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Shots on Goal projection 1.1 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(under) 58% sits 8pp off the market. Shots on Goal has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
Card ID: c-401892577-MattyBeniers-SHOTS_ON_GOALPublished 10/25/2026, 1:48:12 AM
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
SZN
64%
7/11
H2H
33%
1/3
OPP
-
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L20 includes 9 from 2025-26.
›Calibration: NHL Shots on Goal plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 13313 graded, of which 7095 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 2.6pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 2 floor for Shots on Goal. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 1.5)50.1%
Fair price2.01 · +101
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/24, 9:48 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.12 vs 1.5
11 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNHL
Games11
Current games11
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
›All model inputs (18)
Variance1.20
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNHL
propSHOTS_ON_GOAL
games11
current_games11
prior_games0
prior_games_fetched0
current_mean1.18
prior_meannull
current_weight1
role_shift0
variance_floor1.20
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4781552
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Matty Beniers · Under the number
model projects 1.12
The best move
Buy this under up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (18% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1
37%
21%
42%
2.13 (+113) fair
-
1.5nowbest EV
58%
-
42%
1.83 (-120)
+6.3%
2push-safe
58%
18%
24%
1.41 (-245) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 51% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIN
Other · 4ShowHide
Filip Gustavsson?
Oct 18: Head coach John Hynes said Sunday that Gustavsson (hip) is slated to miss at least another month, Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News reports.
Marcus Foligno?
Oct 12: ir
Nick Foligno?
Oct 9: ir
Brock Faber?
Sep 29: Faber underwent a procedure to repair his fractured skull and is without a timetable to return, per Michael Russo of The Athletic.
SEA
Other · 4ShowHide
Jared McCann?
Oct 24: ir
Jacob Melanson?
Oct 10: Melanson's upper-body injury was diagnosed Saturday as an anterior mediastinum hematoma with vascular pseudo aneurysm. He will continue to be evaluated and is out indefinitely.
Ryan Lindgren?
Oct 8: Lindgren (upper body) was placed on injured reserve by the Kraken on Thursday and is expected to miss four to six weeks.
Jake O'Brien?
Sep 30: O'Brien (lower body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve Wednesday.
Role
Matty Beniers, SEA F. Season vs last 3 games.
Role
Season (11)
Last 3
Change
Time on ice
17.4
18.4
= +0.9
Power-play TOI
2.4
2.3
= -0.0
Typical pre-close movement
Across 29 replayed days of NHL, this market moves 0.4pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 3% of the time (mean 0.02 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 3305 players quoting player_shots_on_goal, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Matty Beniers · Shots on Goal · Bet Data Labs
★ RECENT FORM
Matty Beniers · Shots on Goal vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 1.0
LAST 10
60%
6/10 under · avg 1.1
LAST 20
70%
14/20 under · avg 1.1
SEASON
67%
8/12 under · avg 1.1
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L20 includes 8 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.83 (-120) the price needs 55% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Matty Beniers · Shots on Goal vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 1.5
2
0
2
1
0
TBFLADETUTAMIN
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 25vsMINL0Hit
Oct 23vsUTAW1Hit
Oct 21vsDETW2Miss
Oct 17@FLAL0Hit
Oct 15@TBL2Miss
Oct 13@PHIW3Miss
Oct 11@WSHW1Hit
Oct 9@DETW2Miss
Oct 7vsVGKL0Hit
Oct 5vsCGYW0Hit
Oct 3@EDML1Hit
Oct 2@CGYW1Hit
Apr 17@COLL0Hit
Apr 16@VGKL0Hit
Apr 14vsLAL0Hit
Apr 11vsCGYW3Miss
Apr 10vsVGKW0Hit
Apr 8@MINL3Miss
Apr 6@WPGL1Hit
Apr 5vsCHIL1Hit
Apr 3vsUTAL2Miss
Apr 1@EDML3Miss
Mar 28@BUFL3Miss
Mar 26@TBW2Miss
Mar 24@FLAL3Miss
Mar 21@CBJL1Hit
Mar 20@NSHL3Miss
Mar 18vsTBL0Hit
Mar 16vsFLAW1Hit
Mar 15@VANW1Hit
Mar 13vsCOLL1Hit
Mar 11vsNSHL3Miss
Mar 8vsOTTL1Hit
Mar 5vsSTLL5Miss
Mar 3vsCARW0Hit
Mar 1vsVANW4Miss
Feb 27@STLL1Hit
Feb 26@DALL2Miss
Feb 5@LAW2Miss
Feb 4@ANAL2Miss
Feb 1@VGKW1Hit
Jan 30vsTORW1Hit
Jan 28vsWSHW3Miss
Jan 25vsNJW2Miss
Jan 24vsANAL1Hit
Jan 22vsNYIW5Miss
Jan 19vsPITL0Hit
Jan 17@UTAL3Miss
Jan 16@BOSL1Hit
Jan 15@NJL1Hit
Jan 13@NYRW1Hit
Jan 11@CARL2Miss
Jan 9vsMINL4Miss
Jan 7vsBOSW3Miss
Jan 6@CGYW3Miss
Jan 3@VANW3Miss
Jan 2vsNSHW2Miss
Dec 30vsVANL0Hit
Dec 29vsPHIW1Hit
Dec 24@LAW3Miss
Dec 23@ANAW2Miss
Dec 21@SJW3Miss
Dec 19@CGYL1Hit
Dec 17vsCOLL4Miss
Dec 15vsBUFL3Miss
Dec 13@UTAL4Miss
Dec 11vsLAW5Miss
Dec 9vsMINL1Hit
Dec 7vsDETL1Hit
Dec 5@EDML0Hit
Nov 29vsEDML4Miss
Nov 27vsDALL2Miss
Nov 23@NYIL1Hit
Nov 23@PITW1Hit
Nov 21@CHIW3Miss
Nov 19@DETL0Hit
Nov 16vsSJW1Hit
Nov 14vsWPGW0Hit
Nov 12vsCBJL1Hit
Nov 10@DALL1Hit
Nov 9@STLW0Hit
Nov 6vsSJL2Miss
Nov 4vsCHIW1Hit
Nov 2vsNYRL0Hit
Oct 29vsMTLL4Miss
Oct 26vsEDMW2Miss
Oct 24@WPGW1Hit
Oct 21@WSHL2Miss
Oct 20@PHIL0Hit
Oct 18@TORW1Hit
Oct 16@OTTL4Miss
Oct 14@MTLL2Miss
Oct 12vsVGKW3Miss
Oct 10vsANAW1Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 55% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
