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◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (22% push)
⧉
Same-Game Cap
This is read 26 of 32 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 32 lose together 0.0% to 16.8% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readPrice too short
68% to hitrange 64-73%price needs 76%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -310 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Points projection 0.0 vs line 0.5
›Model read 0.5 pointed the other way, but the market prices the under at 66% and Points has not earned the lean to overrule it. This card follows the market: 0.0 is the number that price implies.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L20 includes 10 from 2025-26. 10 of the L20 games were with VGK, a different team.
H2H 3/4: 2026 (3 games), 2025 (1 game), all with VGK, a different team (2026 VGK: 1, 2026 VGK: 0, 2026 VGK: 0, 2025 VGK: 0)
Last 10 gamesline 0.5
›Prop market fair P(under) 71% across 2 books
›Calibration: NHL Points plays predicted ~57% have hit 59% over 15439 graded, of which 8374 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.2pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
›Same-game cap: read 26 of 32 the board is showing on this game, and reads past the 2nd went 22-43 (33.8%) in July. Sized down, do not stack with its siblings. All 32 lose together somewhere between 0.0% and 16.8% of the time, and same-game legs sit near the top of that band.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 0.5)71.3%
Fair price3.48 · +248
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/24, 6:57 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.00 vs 0.5
10 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNHL
Games10
Current games10
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
›All model inputs (20)
Variance0.80
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNHL
propHOCKEY_POINTS
games10
current_games10
prior_games0
prior_games_fetched0
current_mean0.400
prior_meannull
current_weight1
role_shift0
variance_floor0.800
opp_adj1
player_espn_id2993474
model_median0.510
market_overrule1
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Colton Sissons · Under the number
model projects 0
The best move
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (22% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
66%
-
34%
1.32 (-310)
-12.7%
1push-safe
66%
22%
12%
1.18 (-549) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 71% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
+220
-310
DK implied, with vig (this side): 75.6%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 50?
TOTAL
50/100
Win prob+55/ 55
Calibrated win probability 68%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 71% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 52; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
TOR
Other · 10ShowHide
Nick Blankenburg?
Oct 23: Blankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Marshall Rifai?
Oct 22: ir
John Tavares?
Oct 17: ir
Dakota Joshua?
Oct 17: Joshua (abdomen) was sent to AHL Toronto on Friday for a conditioning stint.
Miles Wood?
Oct 15: ir
Chris Tanev?
Oct 15: The Maple Leafs announced Thursday that Tanev (lower body) is considered week-to-week, Mark Masters of TSN reports.
Max Domi?
Sep 30: Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.
Cade Webber?
Sep 29: ir-nr
Elvis Merzlikins?
Sep 29: Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.
William Villeneuve?
Sep 29: ir-nr
EDM
Out · 1
Mattias EkholmOUT
Oct 23: Ekholm (undisclosed) will miss at least a week after getting injured versus the Hurricanes on Thursday, Jason Gregor of Sports 1440 Edmonton reports.
Other · 7ShowHide
Devon Levi?
Oct 24: Levi (undisclosed) is expected to miss a few weeks, per Jason Gregor of Sports 1440 Edmonton.
Jason Dickinson?
Oct 22: ir
Alec Regula?
Oct 1: Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Matt Savoie?
Oct 1: Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Frederik Andersen
Role
Colton Sissons, TOR F. Season vs last 3 games.
Role
Season (10)
Last 3
Change
Time on ice
15.5
15.4
= -0.1
Power-play TOI
0.1
0.1
= +0.1
Typical pre-close movement
Across 29 replayed days of NHL, this market moves 0.3pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 1% of the time (mean 0.00 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 3998 players quoting player_points, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
?
Sep 29: Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.
Mattias Janmark?
Sep 29: Janmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.
Atro Leppanen?
Sep 29: ir-nr
★ RECENT FORM
Colton Sissons · Points vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 0.6
LAST 10
60%
6/10 under · avg 0.4
LAST 20
70%
14/20 under · avg 0.3
SEASON
64%
7/11 under · avg 0.4
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L20 includes 9 from 2025-26. 9 of the L20 games were with VGK, a different team.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.32 (-310) the price needs 76% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Colton Sissons · Points vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Line 0.5
1
1
1
0
0
NYISJCBJNYREDM
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 24@EDMW0Hit
Oct 22vsNYRW0Hit
Oct 20@CBJW1Miss
Oct 19vsSJW1Miss
Oct 17vsNYIL1Miss
Oct 15vsBUFL1Miss
Oct 14@UTAL0Hit
Oct 10@COLW0Hit
Oct 9@VGKL0Hit
Oct 6vsNSHW0Hit
Oct 3vsOTTL0Hit
Jun 15vsCARL0Hit
Jun 12@CARL0Hit
Jun 10vsCARL1Miss
Jun 7vsCARW0Hit
Jun 5@CARL0Hit
Jun 3@CARW1Miss
May 27vsCOLW0Hit
May 25vsCOLW0Hit
May 23@COLW0Hit
May 21@COLW1Miss
May 15@ANAW0Hit
May 13vsANAW0Hit
May 11@ANAL0Hit
May 9@ANAW1Miss
May 7vsANAL0Hit
May 5vsANAW0Hit
May 2@UTAW1Miss
Apr 30vsUTAW0Hit
Apr 28@UTAW1Miss
Apr 25@UTAL0Hit
Apr 22vsUTAL0Hit
Apr 20vsUTAW2Miss
Apr 16vsSEAW0Hit
Apr 14vsWPGW0Hit
Apr 12@COLW0Hit
Apr 10@SEAL0Hit
Apr 8@VANW0Hit
Apr 5@EDMW1Miss
Apr 3vsCGYW0Hit
Mar 31vsVANW0Hit
Mar 29vsWSHL0Hit
Mar 27vsEDML0Hit
Mar 25@WPGL0Hit
Mar 22@DALW1Miss
Mar 21@NSHL0Hit
Mar 20vsUTAL0Hit
Mar 18vsBUFL0Hit
Mar 15vsCHIW0Hit
Mar 13vsPITW1Miss
Mar 11@DALL0Hit
Mar 9vsEDML0Hit
Mar 7vsMINL0Hit
Mar 5@DETW0Hit
Mar 4@BUFL0Hit
Mar 1@PITL0Hit
Feb 28@WSHL0Hit
Feb 26@LAW2Miss
Jan 15@LAW0Hit
Jan 12@SJW0Hit
Jan 11vsSTLW0Hit
Jan 9vsCBJW0Hit
Jan 7@WPGW0Hit
Jan 5@CHIL0Hit
Jan 2@STLL1Miss
Dec 31vsNSHL0Hit
Dec 30vsMINL0Hit
Dec 28vsCOLL1Miss
Dec 24vsSJW1Miss
Dec 22@EDML0Hit
Dec 21@CGYL0Hit
Dec 18vsNJL0Hit
Dec 14@CBJW0Hit
Dec 12@PHIW0Hit
Dec 10@NYIL0Hit
Dec 3vsCHIW0Hit
Nov 30vsSJW1Miss
Nov 28vsMTLL0Hit
Nov 27vsOTTL0Hit
Nov 25@UTAL0Hit
Nov 23@ANAL0Hit
Nov 21@UTAW0Hit
Nov 19vsNYRW1Miss
Nov 16@MINL0Hit
Nov 16@STLW0Hit
Nov 14vsNYIL0Hit
Nov 11vsFLAL0Hit
Nov 9vsANAL0Hit
Nov 7vsTBL0Hit
Nov 5vsDETW0Hit
Oct 26@TBL0Hit
Oct 25@FLAL0Hit
Oct 21vsCARW0Hit
Oct 19vsCGYW0Hit
Oct 17vsBOSW1Miss
Oct 15@CGYW0Hit
Oct 12@SEAL0Hit
Oct 10@SJW0Hit
Oct 9vsLAL0Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 76% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
