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◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (24% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
76% to hitrange 68-84%price needs 78%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -350 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Assists projection 0.1 vs line 0.5
›Model read 0.6 pointed the other way, but the market prices the under at 68% and Assists has not earned the lean to overrule it. This card follows the market: 0.1 is the number that price implies.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Calibration: NHL Assists plays predicted ~61% have hit 69% over 26881 graded, of which 14374 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 8.0pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: BUF has 2 OUT
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ BUF has 2 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 0.5)73.1%
Fair price3.72 · +272
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/24, 6:57 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.05 vs 0.5
10 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNHL
Games10
Current games10
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
›All model inputs (20)
Variance0.71
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNHL
propHOCKEY_ASSISTS
games10
current_games10
prior_games0
prior_games_fetched0
current_mean0.500
prior_meannull
current_weight1
role_shift0
variance_floor0.600
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4378656
model_median0.570
market_overrule1
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Mattias Samuelsson · Under the number
model projects 0.05
The best move
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (24% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
68%
-
32%
1.29 (-350)
-12.2%
1push-safe
68%
24%
8%
1.11 (-878) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 73% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
+250
-350
DK implied, with vig (this side): 77.8%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+55/ 55
Calibrated win probability 76%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 73% on our side
Price+-4.9/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 57; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Out · 1
Jiri KulichOUT
Oct 24: Kulich (face) is back in Buffalo for evaluation and won't play against Washington on Saturday, according to Paul Hamilton of WGR Sports Radio 550.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Justin DanforthDTD
Oct 25: day-to-day
Other · 5ShowHide
Sam Carrick?
Oct 21: ir
Alex Lyon?
Oct 15: Lyon (upper body) had a setback in his recovery and is without a timeline to return, the team announced Thursday.
Matt Grzelcyk?
Oct 13: Grzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach Lindy Ruff told Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Tuesday.
Conor Timmins?
Sep 29: Timmins (lower body) doesn't have a timeline for his return yet, according to Heather Engel of NHL.com on Tuesday.
Jack Rathbone?
Sep 28: ir-nr
WSH
Other · 4ShowHide
Logan Thompson?
Oct 24: ir
Vincent Desharnais?
Oct 23: ir
Rasmus Sandin?
Oct 12: Sandin (knee) was placed on long-term injured reserve Monday.
Patrick Thomas?
Sep 29: ir-nr
Role
Mattias Samuelsson, BUF D. Season vs last 3 games.
Role
Season (10)
Last 3
Change
Time on ice
23.3
26.1
= +2.8
Power-play TOI
0.1
0.1
= -0.0
Typical pre-close movement
Across 29 replayed days of NHL, this market moves 0.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time (mean 0.00 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 3913 players quoting player_assists, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
★ RECENT FORM
Mattias Samuelsson · Assists vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 0.8
LAST 10
60%
6/10 under · avg 0.5
LAST 20
60%
12/20 under · avg 0.5
SEASON
64%
7/11 under · avg 0.5
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L20 includes 9 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.29 (-350) the price needs 78% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Mattias Samuelsson · Assists vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Line 0.5
2
1
1
0
0
MTLTORMTLPHIWSH
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 24@WSHL0Hit
Oct 21vsPHIL0Hit
Oct 17@MTLL1Miss
Oct 15@TORW1Miss
Oct 13@MTLL2Miss
Oct 12vsFLAW0Hit
Oct 10vsUTAL0Hit
Oct 8vsDALL0Hit
Oct 6vsMINW0Hit
Oct 3vsCHIW1Miss
Oct 1@CBJL0Hit
May 18vsMTLL1Miss
May 17@MTLW1Miss
May 14vsMTLL1Miss
May 12@MTLW0Hit
May 10@MTLL0Hit
May 8vsMTLL0Hit
May 6vsMTLW1Miss
May 1@BOSW0Hit
Apr 28vsBOSL0Hit
Apr 26@BOSW0Hit
Apr 23@BOSW0Hit
Apr 21vsBOSL0Hit
Apr 19vsBOSW0Hit
Apr 14@CHIW0Hit
Apr 9vsCBJW0Hit
Apr 8@NYRW0Hit
Apr 6vsTBW0Hit
Apr 4@WSHL0Hit
Apr 2@OTTL0Hit
Mar 31vsNYIW1Miss
Mar 28vsSEAW0Hit
Mar 27vsDETL0Hit
Mar 25vsBOSL0Hit
Mar 23@ANAL0Hit
Mar 21@LAW1Miss
Mar 20@SJW1Miss
Mar 18@VGKW1Miss
Mar 12vsWSHL0Hit
Mar 10vsSJW1Miss
Mar 8vsTBW0Hit
Mar 7vsNSHW0Hit
Mar 6@PITW0Hit
Mar 4vsVGKW0Hit
Mar 1@TBW0Hit
Feb 28@FLAW0Hit
Feb 26@NJW0Hit
Feb 6vsPITL0Hit
Feb 4@TBL0Hit
Feb 3@FLAW0Hit
Feb 1vsMTLL0Hit
Jan 30vsLAW0Hit
Jan 28@TORW3Miss
Jan 24@NYIW2Miss
Jan 23@MTLW1Miss
Jan 21@NSHW1Miss
Jan 19@CARL0Hit
Jan 17vsMINL1Miss
Jan 16vsMTLW0Hit
Jan 15vsPHIW0Hit
Jan 13vsFLAL0Hit
Jan 11vsANAW0Hit
Jan 9@NYRW1Miss
Jan 7vsVANW1Miss
Jan 3@CBJL0Hit
Jan 1@DALW0Hit
Dec 30@STLW1Miss
Dec 28vsBOSW2Miss
Dec 24@OTTW1Miss
Dec 22@NJW0Hit
Dec 20vsNYIW0Hit
Dec 19vsPHIW2Miss
Dec 15@SEAW0Hit
Dec 12@VANW0Hit
Dec 10@EDMW0Hit
Dec 9@CGYL0Hit
Dec 6@WPGL0Hit
Dec 4@PHIL0Hit
Dec 2vsWPGW0Hit
Nov 30@MINW0Hit
Nov 28vsNJL0Hit
Nov 27@PITL1Miss
Nov 23vsCARW0Hit
Nov 22vsCHIW0Hit
Nov 20vsCGYL1Miss
Nov 18vsEDMW1Miss
Nov 16@DETW0Hit
Nov 14@COLL0Hit
Nov 13@UTAL0Hit
Nov 9@CARL0Hit
Nov 7vsSTLL0Hit
Nov 5vsUTAL0Hit
Nov 1vsWSHW0Hit
Oct 30@BOSL0Hit
Oct 28vsCBJL1Miss
Oct 25@TORL1Miss
Oct 24vsTORW0Hit
Oct 22vsDETW1Miss
Oct 20@MTLL0Hit
Oct 18vsFLAW0Hit
Oct 11@BOSL1Miss
Oct 9vsNYRL0Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 78% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
