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◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (28% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
59% to hitrange 38-78%price needs 58%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -140 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Assists projection 0.5 vs line 0.5
›Model read 0.7 pointed the other way, but the market prices the under at 51% and Assists has not earned the lean to overrule it. This card follows the market: 0.5 is the number that price implies.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Calibration: NHL Assists plays predicted ~61% have hit 69% over 26881 graded, of which 14374 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 8.0pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Thin sample: the projection rests on 3 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
›Watch only: NHL 0.5 goal and assist unders have not paid at these prices (graded record, Oct 11-16)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 0.5)55.6%
Fair price2.25 · +125
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/24, 6:57 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.48 vs 0.5
3 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNHL
Games3
Current games3
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
›All model inputs (20)
Variance1.15
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNHL
propHOCKEY_ASSISTS
games3
current_games3
prior_games0
prior_games_fetched0
current_mean0.670
prior_meannull
current_weight1
role_shift0
variance_floor0.600
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4697386
model_median0.670
market_overrule1
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jake Sanderson · Under the number
model projects 0.48
The best move
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (28% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
51%
-
49%
1.71 (-140)
-13.2%
1push-safe
51%
28%
22%
1.43 (-234) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 55% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYR
Other · 5ShowHide
Igor Shesterkin?
Oct 11: Shesterkin will require surgery and a lengthy rehab process to address his season-ending right knee injury, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports Sunday.
Joe Veleno?
Oct 10: Veleno (lower body) was placed on long-term injured reserve Saturday, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports.
Joonas Korpisalo?
Oct 10: Korpisalo (lower body) will miss at least four more weeks, per Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet on Saturday.
Aidan Thompson?
Sep 29: ir-nr
Adam Sykora?
Sep 28: ir
OTT
Out · 1
Thomas ChabotOUT
Oct 19: out
Other · 2ShowHide
Linus Ullmark?
Oct 22: Ullmark (lower body) is expected to miss the next 1-2 weeks, Claire Hanna of TSN reports Thursday.
William Eklund?
Oct 15: Eklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports Thursday.
Role
Jake Sanderson, OTT D. Season vs last 3 games.
Role
Season (3)
Last 3
Change
Time on ice
17.7
17.7
= +0.0
Power-play TOI
3.6
3.6
= +0.0
Missed OTT's latest game: Thomas Chabot.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 29 replayed days of NHL, this market moves 0.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time (mean 0.00 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 3913 players quoting player_assists, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
★ RECENT FORM
Jake Sanderson · Assists vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 0.8
LAST 10
60%
6/10 under · avg 0.8
LAST 20
60%
12/20 under · avg 0.6
SEASON
50%
2/4 under · avg 1.0
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 6 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 16 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.71 (-140) the price needs 58% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jake Sanderson · Assists vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 0.5
0
0
2
0
2
CARTORFLASJNYR
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 24vsNYRW2Miss
Oct 22vsSJL0Hit
Oct 21vsFLAW2Miss
Oct 3@TORW0Hit
Apr 23vsCARL0Hit
Apr 20@CARL2Miss
Apr 18@CARL0Hit
Apr 11@NYIW0Hit
Apr 9vsFLAW2Miss
Apr 7vsTBW0Hit
Apr 5vsCARW1Miss
Apr 4vsMINL0Hit
Mar 8@SEAW0Hit
Mar 6@CGYW0Hit
Mar 4@EDML0Hit
Mar 1@TORW1Miss
Feb 27vsDETL1Miss
Feb 6@PHIW0Hit
Feb 4@CARL1Miss
Feb 3@PITW0Hit
Feb 1vsNJW2Miss
Jan 29vsCOLW1Miss
Jan 25vsVGKW0Hit
Jan 25vsCARL1Miss
Jan 23@NSHL1Miss
Jan 21@CBJW0Hit
Jan 18@DETL0Hit
Jan 18vsMTLL3Miss
Jan 15@NYRW1Miss
Jan 14vsVANW0Hit
Jan 11vsFLAL1Miss
Jan 9@COLL1Miss
Jan 8@UTAL1Miss
Jan 6vsDETL1Miss
Jan 4vsWPGW1Miss
Jan 1vsWSHW1Miss
Dec 30vsCBJL0Hit
Dec 28@TORL0Hit
Dec 24vsBUFL0Hit
Dec 22@BOSW0Hit
Dec 20vsCHIW0Hit
Dec 19vsPITW0Hit
Dec 16@WPGW1Miss
Dec 13@MINL0Hit
Dec 12@CBJW0Hit
Dec 10vsNJL1Miss
Dec 7vsSTLL0Hit
Dec 5vsNYRL2Miss
Dec 3@MTLW0Hit
Nov 30@DALL0Hit
Nov 28@STLL1Miss
Nov 27@VGKW2Miss
Nov 25@LAL0Hit
Nov 23@SJW1Miss
Nov 21@ANAW1Miss
Nov 16vsLAL0Hit
Nov 14vsBOSW1Miss
Nov 12vsDALL1Miss
Nov 10vsUTAW0Hit
Nov 8@PHIW0Hit
Nov 7@BOSL0Hit
Nov 1@MTLL0Hit
Oct 30vsCGYW0Hit
Oct 29@CHIL0Hit
Oct 27vsBOSW3Miss
Oct 25@WSHW1Miss
Oct 23vsPHIW0Hit
Oct 21vsEDML0Hit
Oct 18vsNYIL0Hit
Oct 16vsSEAW0Hit
Oct 15@BUFL1Miss
Oct 13vsNSHL1Miss
Oct 11@FLAL0Hit
Oct 9@TBW2Miss
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 58% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
