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Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
52% to hitrange 40-62%price needs 55%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -122 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Saves projection 26.5 vs line 23.5
›Model read P(over) 62% sits 10pp off the market. Saves has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: our 3.0 gap is only 13% of the 23.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
›Calibration: NHL Saves plays predicted ~54% have hit 45% over 62 graded, of which 62 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 4.9pp.
›Thin sample: the projection rests on 7 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
›Opponent SJ missing 2, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 23.5)51.7%
Fair price1.93 · -107
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/24, 6:57 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line26.53 vs 23.5
7 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNHL
PropSAVES
Games7
Current games7
Prior games0
›All model inputs (18)
Variance8.10
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNHL
propSAVES
games7
current_games7
prior_games0
prior_games_fetched0
current_mean26
prior_meannull
current_weight1
role_shift0
variance_floor6
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4712036
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jeremy Swayman · Over the number
model projects 26.53
The best move
The 23.5 is already the best line on the board (12.5% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
23
62%
4%
35%
1.56 (-179) fair
-
23.5nowbest EV
62%
-
38%
1.82 (-122)
+12.5%
24
58%
4%
38%
1.66 (-152) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 52% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SJ
Out · 2
Igor ChernyshovOUT
Oct 24: Chernyshov (upper body) is week-to-week, per Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now on Saturday.
Alexander WennbergOUT
Oct 22: out
Other · 2ShowHide
Quentin Musty?
Sep 28: Musty (upper body) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday, according to Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.
Kyle Keyser?
Sep 28: Keyser (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
BOS
No reported absences.
★ RECENT FORM
Jeremy Swayman · Saves vs 23.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 23.8
LAST 10
50%
5/10 over · avg 25.2
LAST 20
40%
8/20 over · avg 24.8
SEASON
50%
4/8 over · avg 25.6
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 2 games from 2025-26; L20 includes 12 from 2025-26.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.82 (-122) the price needs 55% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jeremy Swayman · Saves vs 23.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Line 23.5
14
35
25
22
23
PHISJLADALSJ
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 24vsSJW23Miss
Oct 21@DALL22Miss
Oct 18@LAW25Hit
Oct 14@SJW35Hit
Oct 10vsPHIW14Miss
Oct 8vsUTAW36Hit
Oct 5vsOTTL20Miss
Oct 3@WPGW30Hit
May 1vsBUFL22Miss
Apr 28@BUFW25Hit
Apr 26vsBUFL23Miss
Apr 23vsBUFL27Hit
Apr 21@BUFW33Hit
Apr 19@BUFL34Hit
Apr 14vsNJW21Miss
Apr 11vsTBL22Miss
Apr 7@CARL19Miss
Apr 4@TBL20Miss
Apr 2@FLAL22Miss
Mar 29@CBJW22Miss
Mar 28vsMINW31Hit
Mar 24vsTORL31Hit
Mar 22@DETW42Hit
Mar 19vsWPGW23Miss
Mar 17@MTLL28Hit
Mar 14@WSHW26Hit
Mar 12vsSJL24Hit
Mar 10vsLAW15Miss
Mar 7vsWSHW22Miss
Mar 4vsPITW34Hit
Feb 28@PHIL14Miss
Feb 1@TBL41Hit
Jan 30vsPHIW33Hit
Jan 28vsNSHW28Hit
Jan 25vsMTLW22Miss
Jan 21@DALL28Hit
Jan 16vsSEAW26Hit
Jan 14vsDETW24Hit
Jan 10vsNYRW27Hit
Jan 7@SEAL20Miss
Jan 4@VANW32Hit
Jan 1@EDMW34Hit
Dec 30@CGYL19Miss
Dec 24vsMTLL23Miss
Dec 22vsOTTL10Miss
Dec 21vsVANL19Miss
Dec 19vsEDML22Miss
Dec 17vsUTAW20Miss
Dec 14@MINL25Hit
Dec 10@STLW24Hit
Dec 7vsNJW29Hit
Dec 3@DETL18Miss
Nov 30vsDETW24Hit
Nov 27@NYIW43Hit
Nov 24@SJL28Hit
Nov 22@LAW31Hit
Nov 18vsCARL29Hit
Nov 16@MTLW26Hit
Nov 12vsTORW30Hit
Nov 9@TORW30Hit
Nov 5@NYIW30Hit
Nov 1vsCARW28Hit
Oct 27@OTTL16Miss
Oct 25vsCOLW31Hit
Oct 21vsFLAL19Miss
Oct 19@COLL34Hit
Oct 17@VGKL31Hit
Oct 11vsBUFW21Miss
Oct 8@WSHW35Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 23.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 55% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
