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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.25
UNDER
0.25
Our win %
65%
Market %
60%
Edge
+4.8pp
Market
Sacks 0.25
DK
-175
Projection0.4vs0.25(0.2 over)
◆ SAFE PICK FINDER
▼ Coin flipU 0.25 · 6 of last 10 · books 60%-175DK
See all lines (1)
Edge
+4.8pp
EV
2.2%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.97u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 3.89u
◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (28% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
65% to hitrange 55-76%price needs 64%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -175 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Sacks projection 0.43 a game vs line 0.25, priced P(under) 65%
›Sacks are a rare count: most games are zero, so the model prices the chance he gets home at all rather than an average.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.2 gap is inside the model's own error bar. The card scores without the 15 Alpha Score points this check is worth.
L5/L10/L20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 5 games from 2025; L20 includes 15 from 2025. 5 of the L10 games were with MIN, a different team.
H2H 1/2: 2025 (1 game), 2024 (1 game), all with MIN/WSH, a different team (2025 MIN: 1, 2024 WSH: 0)
Last 10 gamesline 0.25
▾
Line
Read
Last 10
Price
Books
U 0.25LINE
▼Coin flipCoin flip
6/10
-175DK
60%
▲ Safe: he cleared it in 8 or more of his last 10, with room to spare, and the books agree. = Close call: he clears it, but too many games land right on the number. ▼ Coin flip: 6 of 10 or fewer, or the books make it 60% or less. The safe pick (SAFE) is the best-paying safe line. Books is how likely the books think it is once their margin is taken out.
›
Prop market fair P(under) 60% across 1 book
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›New market: Sacks has 8 graded plays here so far. Capped at LEAN until 30.
›Injury kill: CIN has 5 OUT
›Opponent BAL missing 5, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ CIN has 5 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 0.25)60.2%
Fair price2.51 · +151
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/25, 12:51 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.43 vs 0.25
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
PropSACKS
Games22
Current games5
Prior games6
›All model inputs (25)
Variance0.59
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propSACKS
games22
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean0.600
prior_mean0.210
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
variance_floor0.400
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3054840
season2026
wx_roofOPEN
wx_wind_mph2
wx_gust_mph4
wx_temp_f62
wx_precip_pct0
wx_sourceweather.gov
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jonathan Allen · Under the number
model projects 0.43
The best move
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (28% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.25.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.25nowbest EV
65%
-
35%
1.57 (-175)
+2.2%
0.5
65%
-
35%
1.54 (-186) fair
-
1push-safe
65%
28%
7%
1.11 (-932) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 60% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.25
+138
-175
FD
0.5
+136
-
DK implied, with vig (this side): 63.6%
Line history
Loading…
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+55/ 55
Calibrated win probability 65%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 60% on our side
Price+5.6/ 15
2.2% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 68; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CIN
Out · 5
Shemar StewartOUT
Oct 25: Stewart (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Russ YeastOUT
Oct 25: inactive
Landon RobinsonOUT
Oct 25: inactive
Connor LewOUT
Oct 25: inactive
Myles HintonOUT
Oct 25: inactive
Questionable / DTD · 2
Kyle DuggerQ
Oct 25: Dugger (quadriceps) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Erick All Jr.Q
Oct 25: All (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Other · 18ShowHide
Ja'Marr Chase?
Oct 25: Chase brought in five of seven targets for 62 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday.
Mike Gesicki?
Oct 25: Gesicki caught his only target for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens.
Samaje Perine?
Oct 25: Perine rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens.
Drew Sample?
Oct 25: Sample caught both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens.
Chase Brown?
Oct 25: Brown rushed 11 times for 39 yards and brought in four of five targets for 19 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday.
Evan McPherson?
Oct 25: McPherson did not attempt a field goal and made all five of his PATs in Sunday's 35-13 win over Baltimore.
BAL
Out · 5
Broderick Washington Jr.OUT
Oct 25: Washington (ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Bengals.
Elijah SarrattOUT
Oct 25: Sarratt (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Bengals.
Andrew VorheesOUT
Oct 25: inactive
Jaylinn HawkinsOUT
Oct 25: inactive
Lamar JacksonOUT
Oct 25: Jackson (ankle), who has been ruled out out for Sunday's game against the Bengals, was considered close to playing this week and is "likely to return" to action Week 8 versus the Bills, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Olaivavega IoaneQ
Ioane (knee) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Bengals.
Joe Burrow?
Oct 25: Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for 12 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday.
Tee Higgins?
Oct 25: Higgins secured six of seven targets for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday.
Colbie Young?
Oct 21: Young (knee) was not listed on the Bengals' injury report Wednesday.
Josh Kattus?
Oct 20: The Bengals have signed Kattus to their practice squad.
Tanner Hudson?
Oct 19: Hudson (pectoral) was placed on injured reserve by the Bengals on Monday.
Dohnte Meyers?
Oct 13: Meyers brought in both of his targets for 12 yards during the Bengals' 31-24 win over the Dolphins on Sunday.
Swayze Bozeman?
Oct 12: The Bengals placed Bozeman on injured reserve Monday due to a fractured forearm, Ben Baby of ESPN.com reports.
Jack Endries?
Bryan Cook?
Oct 11: Cook (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against Miami.
B.J. Hill?
Dalton Risner?
Dexter Lawrence II?
Oct 25:
Other · 19ShowHide
Mark Andrews?
Oct 25: Andrews caught three of four targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals.
Tyler Huntley?
Oct 25: Huntley completed 23 of 34 passes for 298 yards with a touchdown and an interception while adding three rushes for 12 yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday.
Tyler Loop?
Oct 25: Loop went 2-for-2 on field-goal tries and made his only PAT during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals.
Derrick Henry?
Oct 25: Henry rushed 17 times for 45 yards and brought in one of two target for four yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday.
Zay Flowers?
Oct 25: Flowers brought in eight of 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday.
Roquan Smith?
Tavius Robinson?
Oct 24: The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday.
Cam Jurgens?
Oct 23: Jurgens (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Bengals.
Matt Hibner?
Oct 22: Hibner (hand) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Rashod Bateman?
Oct 22: Bateman (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
John Simpson?
T.J. Tampa?
Oct 21: The Ravens designated Tampa (toe/ankle) to return from injured reserve Wednesday.
Kyle Hamilton?
Oct 20: Hamilton finished Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Browns with seven tackles (six solo).
Justice Hill?
Oct 20: Hill caught all three of his targets for nine yards during the Ravens' 13-10 loss to the Browns on Sunday.
K'Von Wallace?
Ja'Kobi Lane?
Oct 19: Lane brought in four of five targets for 40 yards in the Ravens' 13-10 loss to the Browns on Sunday.
Josh Cuevas?
Oct 18: Cuevas caught four of five targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 13-10 loss to Cleveland.
Emery Jones Jr.?
Teddye Buchanan?
★ RECENT FORM
Jonathan Allen · Sacks vs 0.25
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 0.4
LAST 10
60%
6/10 under · avg 0.4
LAST 20
65%
13/20 under · avg 0.3
SEASON
50%
3/6 under · avg 0.5
Last 5, 10 and 20 are his last games played, across seasons. L10 includes 4 games from 2025; L20 includes 14 from 2025. 4 of the L10 games were with MIN, a different team.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.57 (-175) the price needs 64% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jonathan Allen · Sacks vs 0.25
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 0.25
1
0
0
1
0
HOUPITJAXMIABAL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 25@BALW0Hit
Oct 11@MIAW1Miss
Oct 4vsJAXL0Hit
Sep 27@PITL0Hit
Sep 20@HOUW1Miss
Sep 13vsTBW1Miss
Jan 4vsGBW0Hit
Dec 25vsDETW0Hit
Dec 21@NYGW1Miss
Dec 15@DALW0Hit
Dec 7vsWSHW0Hit
Nov 30@SEAL0Hit
Nov 23@GBL0Hit
Nov 16vsCHIL0Hit
Nov 9vsBALL1Miss
Nov 2@DETW0Hit
Oct 24@LACL1Miss
Oct 19vsPHIL0.5Miss
Oct 5@CLEW0Hit
Sep 28@PITL0Hit
Sep 21vsCINW0Hit
Sep 15vsATLL0Hit
Sep 9@CHIW0Hit
The five most recent games played with a readable stat line, across seasons. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.25, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 64% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
