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5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
51%
Market %
46%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Passing TDs 1.5
DK
2.08
+108
Projection1.3vs1.5(0.2 under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
50%
12/24
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
6.8%
Alpha Score
24
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 14-2 on AllenStake 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (23% push)
Why this card
›Passing TDs projection 1.3 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(under) 56% sits 9pp off the market. Passing TDs has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: our 0.2 gap is only 14% of the 1.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 46% across 6 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 1.5)46.3%
Fair price1.86 · -116
Books de-vigged6
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 6 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.29 vs 1.5
5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
PropPASS_TDS
Games24
Current games5
Prior games19
›All model inputs (19)
Variance1.20
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
1.5
1.72 (-138)1.72
2.08 (+108)2.08
FD
1.5
1.76 (-132)1.76
2.00 (+100)2.00
FANATICS
1.5
1.71 (-140)1.71
2.05 (+105)2.05
DK implied, with vig (this side): 48.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
51% to hitrange 41-61%price needs 48%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +108 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this under up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (23% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1
30%
26%
44%
2.49 (+149) fair
-
1.5nowbest EV
56%
-
44%
2.08 (+108)
+15.8%
2
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Questionable / DTD · 6
Ed OliverQ
Oliver (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dee AlfordQ
Alford (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Joshua PalmerQ
Palmer (shoulder) and DJ Moore (shoulder) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
DJ MooreQ
Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
T.J. SandersQ
questionable
Te'Cory CouchQ
Couch suffered a hamstring injury Sunday versus New England and is doubtful to return.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)5.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.25u
EV %6.8%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401873005-JoshAllen-PASS_TDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:24 AM
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propPASS_TDS
games24
current_games5
prior_games19
prior_games_fetched19
current_mean1.40
prior_mean1.53
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor0.800
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3918298
season2026
push-safe
56%
23%
21%
1.38 (-264) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 46% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 19
Ty Johnson?
Johnson (hamstring) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Spencer Brown?
Landon Jackson?
Jackson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Ray Davis?
Davis caught his lone target for 31 yards while adding two carries for two yards and three kickoff returns for 114 yards during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Mike Danna?
Danna re-signed with the Bills on Tuesday.
Keon Coleman?
Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown pass on two targets during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Jude Bowry?
Ar'maj Reed-Adams?
Dalton Kincaid?
Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards and recorded a two-point conversion catch in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Khalil Shakir?
Shakir brought in all three targets for 80 yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Josh Allen?
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 10 carries for 121 yards and another score and a two-point conversion pass in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
James Cook III?
Cook rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for seven yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
Davison Igbinosun?
Even with Christian Benford (toe) back from injury, Igbinosun is still expected to have a role in the Bills' secondary for Monday's game against the Rams, Nick Suss of ESPN.com reports.
Christian Benford?
Benford (toe) does not carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Rams, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Skyler Bell?
Bell will make his NFL regular-season debut against the Rams on Monday due to the absence of Joshua Palmer (shoulder), Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Greg Rousseau?
Rousseau logged four tackles (two solo) and two passes defensed in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Dawson Knox?
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Jalon Kilgore?
Tyler Bass?
Bass went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 29-26 loss to the Patriots.
LV
Out · 1
Tonka HemingwayOUT
Hemingway (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Trey Zuhn IIIQ
questionable
Other · 23
Carter Runyon?
Runyon (lower body) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.?
Thornton (hamstring) won't be activated from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Nailor?
Nailor (concussion) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Folorunso Fatukasi?
Brock Bowers?
Bowers (knee) practiced fully Thursday. Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Patrick Johnson?
Johnson (stinger/neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Ashton Jeanty?
Jeanty (foot) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's injury report, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Cody White?
White caught two of four passes for 44 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Michael Mayer?
Mayer caught his only target for two yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Mike Washington Jr.?
Washington logged a five-yard carry and caught his lone target for five yards during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell?
Dalton Johnson?
Tristin McCollum?
JJ Pegues?
Matt Gay?
Gay went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted both of his extra-point tries during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Tre Tucker?
Tucker caught four of five targets for 41 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Dylan Laube?
Laube rushed four times for nine yards and a touchdown while also reeling in all three of his targets for 16 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to New England.
Fernando Mendoza?
Mendoza completed six of eight passes for 48 yards without a touchdown or turnover in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots. He added three yards on his only carry.
Kirk Cousins?
Cousins completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Spencer Burford?
Jackson Powers-Johnson?
Powers-Johnson (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
Quay Walker?
Walker registered six tackles (four solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Raiders' 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Darrell Luter Jr.?
★ RECENT FORM
Josh Allen · Passing TDs vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 1.4
LAST 10
60%
3/5 under · avg 1.4
SEASON
60%
3/5 under · avg 1.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 2.08 (+108) the price needs 48% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBUF
4-1
L104-1
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMELV
3-2
L103-2
StreakL2
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Josh Allen · Passing TDs vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Oct 13@LARW1Hit
Oct 4vsNEL1Hit
Sep 27vsLACW0Hit
Sep 18vsDETW3Miss
Sep 13@HOUW2Miss
Jan 17@DENL3Miss
Jan 11@JAXW1Hit
Jan 4vsNYJW0Hit
Dec 28vsPHIL0Hit
Dec 21@CLEW0Hit
Dec 14@NEW3Miss
Dec 7vsCINW3Miss
Nov 30@PITW1Hit
Nov 21@HOUL0Hit
Nov 16vsTBW3Miss
Nov 9@MIAL2Miss
Nov 2vsKCW1Hit
Oct 26@CARW1Hit
Oct 13@ATLL2Miss
Oct 6vsNEL2Miss
Sep 28vsNOW2Miss
Sep 19vsMIAW3Miss
Sep 14@NYJW0Hit
Sep 8vsBALW2Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 48% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
