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5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
235.5
UNDER
235.5
Our win %
45%
Market %
50%
Edge
-5.1pp
Market
Passing Yards 235.5
FANATICS
1.87
-115
Projection231.5vs235.5(4.0 under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
SZN
46%
11/24
H2H
-
ACC
48%
n=549
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL passing yards under plays: 48% of 549 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-5.1pp
EV
-16.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 14-2 on Allen
◆Best lineBetter number: Under 238.5 at 1.90 (-111) (+0.1% EV)
Why this card
›Passing Yards projection 231.5 vs line 235.5
›Edge test fails: our 4.0 gap is only 2% of the 235.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Passing Yards plays predicted ~61% have hit 48% over 549 graded, of which 275 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.7pp.
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 549 NFL passing yards cards. The model predicted 61% on average and they hit 48%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 275 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 235.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line231.50 vs 235.5
5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games19
Prior games fetched19
Current mean249.80
Prior mean222.30
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
238.5
1.88 (-113)1.88
1.90 (-111)1.90
FD
239.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FANATICS★ Best
235.5
1.87 (-115)1.87
1.87 (-115)1.87
FANATICS implied, with vig (this side): 53.5%
Confidence readOn the fence
45% to hitrange 34-56%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -115 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Best value is the 238.5 at 1.90 (-111) (0.1% EV) - a better number than the 235.5 this card is priced at.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
235
51%
-
48%
1.95 (-105) fair
-
235.5now
52%
-
48%
1.87 (-115)
-3.7%
236
52%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.5pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 89% of the time (mean 1.91 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 48 players quoting player_pass_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Questionable / DTD · 6
Ed OliverQ
Oliver (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dee AlfordQ
Alford (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Joshua PalmerQ
Palmer (shoulder) and DJ Moore (shoulder) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
DJ MooreQ
Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
T.J. SandersQ
questionable
Te'Cory CouchQ
Couch suffered a hamstring injury Sunday versus New England and is doubtful to return.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-16.1%
Edge %-5.1pp
Card ID: c-401873005-JoshAllen-PASSING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:24 AM
94.40
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games19
prior_games_fetched19
current_mean249.80
prior_mean222.30
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games24
player_espn_id3918298
season2026
-
48%
1.93 (-107) fair
-
238.5best EVtighten
53%
-
47%
1.90 (-111)
+0.1%
239.5
53%
-
47%
1.88 (-114)
-0.4%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 19
Ty Johnson?
Johnson (hamstring) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Spencer Brown?
Landon Jackson?
Jackson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Ray Davis?
Davis caught his lone target for 31 yards while adding two carries for two yards and three kickoff returns for 114 yards during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Mike Danna?
Danna re-signed with the Bills on Tuesday.
Keon Coleman?
Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown pass on two targets during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Jude Bowry?
Ar'maj Reed-Adams?
Dalton Kincaid?
Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards and recorded a two-point conversion catch in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Khalil Shakir?
Shakir brought in all three targets for 80 yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Josh Allen?
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 10 carries for 121 yards and another score and a two-point conversion pass in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
James Cook III?
Cook rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for seven yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
Davison Igbinosun?
Even with Christian Benford (toe) back from injury, Igbinosun is still expected to have a role in the Bills' secondary for Monday's game against the Rams, Nick Suss of ESPN.com reports.
Christian Benford?
Benford (toe) does not carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Rams, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Skyler Bell?
Bell will make his NFL regular-season debut against the Rams on Monday due to the absence of Joshua Palmer (shoulder), Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Greg Rousseau?
Rousseau logged four tackles (two solo) and two passes defensed in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Dawson Knox?
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Jalon Kilgore?
Tyler Bass?
Bass went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 29-26 loss to the Patriots.
LV
Out · 1
Tonka HemingwayOUT
Hemingway (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Trey Zuhn IIIQ
questionable
Other · 23
Carter Runyon?
Runyon (lower body) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.?
Thornton (hamstring) won't be activated from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Nailor?
Nailor (concussion) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Folorunso Fatukasi?
Brock Bowers?
Bowers (knee) practiced fully Thursday. Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Patrick Johnson?
Johnson (stinger/neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Ashton Jeanty?
Jeanty (foot) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's injury report, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Cody White?
White caught two of four passes for 44 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Michael Mayer?
Mayer caught his only target for two yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Mike Washington Jr.?
Washington logged a five-yard carry and caught his lone target for five yards during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell?
Dalton Johnson?
Tristin McCollum?
JJ Pegues?
Matt Gay?
Gay went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted both of his extra-point tries during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Tre Tucker?
Tucker caught four of five targets for 41 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Dylan Laube?
Laube rushed four times for nine yards and a touchdown while also reeling in all three of his targets for 16 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to New England.
Fernando Mendoza?
Mendoza completed six of eight passes for 48 yards without a touchdown or turnover in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots. He added three yards on his only carry.
Kirk Cousins?
Cousins completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Spencer Burford?
Jackson Powers-Johnson?
Powers-Johnson (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
Quay Walker?
Walker registered six tackles (four solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Raiders' 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Darrell Luter Jr.?
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBUF
4-1
L104-1
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMELV
3-2
L103-2
StreakL2
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL passing yards under) hit 48.1% over 549 graded cards, 549 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Josh Allen · Passing Yards vs 235.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 249.8
LAST 10
40%
2/5 under · avg 249.8
SEASON
40%
2/5 under · avg 249.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.87 (-115) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Josh Allen · Passing Yards vs 235.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Oct 13@LARW210Hit
Oct 4vsNEL253Miss
Sep 27vsLACW204Hit
Sep 18vsDETW248Miss
Sep 13@HOUW334Miss
Jan 17@DENL283Miss
Jan 11@JAXW273Miss
Jan 4vsNYJW0Hit
Dec 28vsPHIL262Miss
Dec 21@CLEW130Hit
Dec 14@NEW193Hit
Dec 7vsCINW251Miss
Nov 30@PITW123Hit
Nov 21@HOUL253Miss
Nov 16vsTBW317Miss
Nov 9@MIAL306Miss
Nov 2vsKCW273Miss
Oct 26@CARW163Hit
Oct 13@ATLL180Hit
Oct 6vsNEL253Miss
Sep 28vsNOW209Hit
Sep 19vsMIAW213Hit
Sep 14@NYJW148Hit
Sep 8vsBALW394Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 235.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
