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2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
4.5
UNDER
4.5
Our win %
61%
Market %
56%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush Attempts 4.5
DK
1.66
-152
Projection6.2vs4.5(1.7 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
52%
11/21
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
1.6%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.61u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 2.43u
◆Best lineBuy down to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake (6% push)
Why this card
›Rush Attempts projection 6.2 vs line 4.5
›Model read P(over) 62% sits 6pp off the market. Rush Attempts has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 56% across 2 books
›Baby line: 4.5 is below the 8 floor for Rush Attempts. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: player QUESTIONABLE: Caleb Williams · CHI has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ player QUESTIONABLE: Caleb Williams
⚠ CHI has 6 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 4.5)56.3%
Fair price1.78 · -129
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/17, 3:52 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line6.23 vs 4.5
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games21
Current games2
Prior games6
Prior games fetched19
›All model inputs (19)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
4.5
1.66 (-152)1.66
2.19 (+119)2.19
DK implied, with vig (this side): 60.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
61% to hitrange 55-67%price needs 60%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -152 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+48.8/ 55
Calibrated win probability 61%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 56% on our side
Price+4/ 15
1.6% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 60; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this over down to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake instead of losing (6% of outcomes), same win chance as the 4.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4push-safe
62%
6%
32%
1.51 (-196) fair
-
4.5nowbest EV
62%
-
38%
1.66 (-152)
+2.7%
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
CHI
Out · 6
Anthony Johnson Jr.OUT
out
Keyshaun ElliottOUT
Elliott (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Dayo OdeyingboOUT
Odeyingbo (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyler GordonOUT
Gordon (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
T.J. EdwardsOUT
Edwards (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Kyle MonangaiOUT
Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game in Atlanta.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)2.43u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.61u
EV %1.6%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401872999-CalebWilliams-RUSH_ATTEMPTSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:52:12 AM
Variance4.02
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_ATTEMPTS
games21
current_games2
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched19
current_mean7.50
prior_mean4.53
current_weight0.570
role_shift1
variance_floor3.50
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4431611
season2026
5
55%
7%
38%
1.69 (-145) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 57% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.Q
Stevenson (hip) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Caleb WilliamsQ
Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta.
Other · 17
D'Andre Swift?
Swift will once again absorb a heavier backfield workload after Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) was ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Case Keenum?
Caleb Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Atlanta, but if he's not given the green light to return, then it's unclear whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent starts under center for Chicago, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Tyson Bagent?
Whether Bagent starts or serves in a backup role against the Falcons on Sunday depends largely on whether Caleb William (hamstring) is cleared to return from a three-game absence, Larry Mayer of the Bears' official site reports.
Shemar Turner?
The Bears activated Turner (knee) from their reserve/PUP list Tuesday.
Kalif Raymond?
Raymond caught three of four passes for six yards and logged one carry for minus-2 yards during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also returned one punt for nine yards.
Montez Sweat?
The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Ozzy Trapilo?
Jayden Loving?
Jamree Kromah?
Cairo Santos?
Santos missed his lone field-goal attempt and converted on his only PAT during the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Colston Loveland?
Loveland brought in two of five targets for 19 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Rome Odunze?
Odunze brought in three of nine targets for 40 yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Luther Burden III?
Burden secured four of six targets for 47 yards and rushed four times for two yards in the Bears' 31-7 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Noah Sewell?
Sewell (Achilles) is active for Sunday's game against the Packers.
Darnell Wright?
Joe Thuney?
Jonah Jackson?
ATL
Out · 1
C.J. HendersonOUT
Henderson (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Za'Darius SmithQ
Smith (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Other · 23
Tua Tagovailoa?
With Michael Penix (ribs) cleared to play Sunday against the Bears, Tagovailoa will handle backup duties for the Falcons.
Michael Penix Jr.?
Penix (ribs) doesn't have a designation for Sunday's game against the Bears, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Kendal Daniels?
Cameron Thomas?
Divine Deablo?
Deablo (hamstring) was a full participant at practice Thursday, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Jahan Dotson?
Dotson caught two of four passes for 54 yards during the Falcons' 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Brian Robinson Jr.?
Robinson handled seven carries for 16 yards and did not catch his only target during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss versus the Ravens. He also returned two kickoffs for 61 return yards.
Jack Strand?
Ethan Onianwa?
Malcolm DeWalt IV?
Christian Harris?
Robert Longerbeam?
Nick Folk?
Folk converted all five of his kicks (three field goals, two extra points) during Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Kyle Pitts Sr.?
Pitts caught five of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Drake London?
London caught seven of 11 targets for 118 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Bijan Robinson?
Robinson rushed 17 times for 86 yards while catching four of seven targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
Jake Matthews?
Matthews (groin) is active for Sunday night's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Cooper Rush?
Rush (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Ravens but will serve as the emergency quarterback, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Samson Ebukam?
Yasir Abdullah?
The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.
Michael Jerrell?
Harold Perkins Jr.?
Perkins recorded 10 tackles (seven solo) including 0.5 sacks and a pass defensed during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
Austin Hooper?
Hooper caught his only target for nine yards during Monday's 45-24 win at New Orleans.
★ RECENT FORM
Caleb Williams · Rush Attempts vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
2/2 over · avg 7.5
LAST 10
100%
2/2 over · avg 7.5
SEASON
100%
2/2 over · avg 7.5
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.66 (-152) the price needs 60% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCHI
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMEATL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Caleb Williams · Rush Attempts vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Sep 20vsMINL5Hit
Sep 13@CARW10Hit
Jan 18vsLARL5Hit
Jan 11vsGBW4Miss
Jan 4vsDETL1Miss
Dec 29@SFL5Hit
Dec 21vsGBW3Miss
Dec 14vsCLEW3Miss
Dec 7@GBL4Miss
Nov 28@PHIW5Hit
Nov 23vsPITW4Miss
Nov 16@MINW4Miss
Nov 9vsNYGW8Hit
Nov 2@CINW5Hit
Oct 26@BALL3Miss
Oct 19vsNOW4Miss
Oct 14@WSHW4Miss
Sep 28@LVW8Hit
Sep 21vsDALW5Hit
Sep 14@DETL5Hit
Sep 9vsMINL6Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 4.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 60% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
