Pavel Dorofeyev
NYRvs
ANA
WATCH
Mon 7:00 PM ETGoals 0.5
FD
1.43
-230
flat6 pulls
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
71%
win
+5.9pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
80%
8/10
SZN
80%
8/10
H2H
-
ACC
75%
n=19093
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| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ANA | 44% | 2.30 |
| NYR | 56% | 1.77 |
Market line 6.5: over 47% (2.15), under 54% (1.87).
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 88% | 1.14 | 12% | 8.33 |
| 4.5 | 79% | 1.27 | 21% | 4.76 |
| 5.5 | 58% | 1.72 | 42% | 2.38 |
| 6.5 | 47% | 2.15 | 54% | 1.87 |
| 7.5 | 26% | 3.85 | 74% | 1.35 |
| 8.5 | 19% | 5.26 | 81% | 1.23 |
| 9.5 | 8% | 13.33 | 93% | 1.08 |
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1.5 | 34% | 2.99 |
| NYR | 2.5 | 23% | 4.35 |
| ANA | 1.5 | 24% | 4.17 |
| ANA | 2.5 | 16% | 6.45 |
81% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.24: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 3.5 and under 9.5.
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