Jackson Arnold
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETPassing TDs 1.5
FD
2.94
+194
-264c -1 lineFade34 pulls
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
37%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 3:30 PM ET
UNLV @ Air Force
Cards
17
Top Alpha Score
38
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 52% | 1.94 |
| AFA | 49% | 2.06 |
Total points · market line 48.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.5 | 57% | 1.74 | 43% | 2.35 |
| 46.5 | 56% | 1.77 | 44% | 2.30 |
| 47.5 | 54% | 1.87 | 47% | 2.15 |
| 48.5 | 51% | 1.98 | 50% | 2.02 |
| 49.5 | 48% | 2.11 | 53% | 1.90 |
| 50.5 | 45% | 2.25 | 55% | 1.80 |
| 51.5 | 42% | 2.41 | 59% | 1.71 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 1.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| UNLV | 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 |
| UNLV | 3.5 | 39% | 2.60 |
| UNLV | 4.5 | 36% | 2.82 |
| AFA | 1.5 | 48% | 2.11 |
| AFA | 2.5 | 45% | 2.25 |
| AFA | 3.5 | 40% | 2.53 |
| AFA | 4.5 | 37% | 2.74 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
75% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.33: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 33.5 and under 69.5.
Passing TDs
Receiving Yards
Taz Reddicks
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 42.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
42.5
UNDER
42.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Kayden McGee
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 33.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
33.5
UNDER
33.5
52%
win
+2.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Rushing Yards
Jackson Arnold
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETRushing Yards 53.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
53.5
UNDER
53.5
55%
win
+4.8pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jai'Den Thomas
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETRushing Yards 79.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
79.5
UNDER
79.5
53%
win
+3.3pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Anytime TD
Jai'Den Thomas
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.61
-165
+10cSteam34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
58%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jackson Arnold
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
1.71
-140
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
54%
win
+0.4pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Taz Reddicks
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.00
+300
+10cSteam34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
30%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 8 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Darrien Jones
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.80
+280
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
17%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Keyan Burnett
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.10
+310
+10cSteam34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
22%
win
+1.4pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jaylon Glover
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
4.30
+330
+10cSteam34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
14%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Kayden McGee
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
4.80
+380
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
25%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Vincent Carner
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.00
+500
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
9%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Taeshaun Lyons
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
7.00
+600
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
11%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Matt Byrnes
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
10.00
+900
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
3%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/1
L10
0%
0/1
L20
0%
0/1
SZN
0%
0/1
H2H
-
ACC
-
DeAngelo Irvin Jr.
UNLV@AFA
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
8.50
+750
-50cFade34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
8%
win
-2.1pp
L5
0%
0/1
L10
0%
0/1
L20
0%
0/1
SZN
0%
0/1
H2H
-
ACC
-