Colton Joseph
WIS@UCLA
LEAN
Sat 7:30 PM ETPassing TDs 0.5
FD
1.37
-270
flat27 pulls
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
73%
win
+5.0pp
L5
100%
5/5
L10
100%
5/5
L20
100%
5/5
SZN
100%
5/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 7:30 PM ET
Wisconsin @ UCLA
Cards
20
Top Alpha Score
63
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| WIS | 44% | 2.25 |
| UCLA | 56% | 1.80 |
Total points · market line 42.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.5 | 65% | 1.54 | 35% | 2.86 |
| 40.5 | 58% | 1.72 | 42% | 2.38 |
| 41.5 | 54% | 1.85 | 46% | 2.17 |
| 42.5 | 51% | 1.96 | 49% | 2.04 |
| 43.5 | 48% | 2.11 | 53% | 1.90 |
| 44.5 | 45% | 2.22 | 55% | 1.82 |
| 45.5 | 42% | 2.41 | 59% | 1.71 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 1.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| UCLA | 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| UCLA | 3.5 | 42% | 2.38 |
| UCLA | 4.5 | 40% | 2.53 |
| WIS | 1.5 | 43% | 2.35 |
| WIS | 2.5 | 41% | 2.47 |
| WIS | 3.5 | 34% | 2.94 |
| WIS | 4.5 | 30% | 3.33 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
78% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.29: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 28.5 and under 64.5.
Passing TDs
Anytime TD
Wayne Knight
UCLAvsWIS
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.56
-180
-5c27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
61%
win
+5.0pp
L5
100%
5/5
L10
100%
5/5
L20
100%
5/5
SZN
100%
5/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Colton Joseph
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.20
+120
-5c27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
47%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Abu Sama III
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
2.30
+130
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
32%
win
-5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 11 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Tyrell Henry
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.20
+220
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
22%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Darrion Dupree
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.70
+270
-10cFade27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
26%
win
-1.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Chris Brooks Jr.
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.90
+290
-5c27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
25%
win
+3.3pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jacob Harris
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
4.10
+310
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
27%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Semaj Morgan
UCLAvsWIS
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.60
+360
-10cFade27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
27%
win
+5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Eugene Hilton Jr.
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
4.60
+360
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
14%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Brian Rowe Jr.
UCLAvsWIS
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.50
+450
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
14%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Bryan Jackson II
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
7.00
+600
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
10%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Brayden Loftin
UCLAvsWIS
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
10.00
+900
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
6%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Landon Ellis
UCLAvsWIS
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
7.00
+600
+50cSteam27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
19%
win
+5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Grant Stec
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
12.00
+1100
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
2%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/2
L10
0%
0/2
L20
0%
0/2
SZN
0%
0/2
H2H
-
ACC
-
Receiving Yards
Semaj Morgan
UCLAvsWIS
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 40.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
40.5
UNDER
40.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Tyrell Henry
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 38.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
38.5
UNDER
38.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Rushing Yards
Colton Joseph
WIS@UCLA
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETRushing Yards 44.5
FD
1.85
-118
flat27 pulls
OVER
44.5
UNDER
44.5
56%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Wayne Knight
UCLAvsWIS
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETRushing Yards 86.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
86.5
UNDER
86.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-