Kevin Jennings
SMUvsUVA
LEAN
Sat 12:00 PM ETPassing TDs 1.5
FD
1.72
-138
+2c34 pulls
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
61%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 12:00 PM ET
Virginia @ SMU
Cards
29
Top Alpha Score
73
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| UVA | 25% | 4.08 |
| SMU | 76% | 1.32 |
Total points · market line 52.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.5 | 71% | 1.41 | 29% | 3.45 |
| 46.5 | 64% | 1.57 | 37% | 2.74 |
| 49.5 | 56% | 1.77 | 44% | 2.30 |
| 52.5 | 48% | 2.08 | 52% | 1.92 |
| 53.5 | 46% | 2.20 | 54% | 1.83 |
| 54.5 | 44% | 2.30 | 56% | 1.77 |
| 55.5 | 40% | 2.53 | 61% | 1.65 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 1.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| SMU | 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| SMU | 3.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| SMU | 4.5 | 66% | 1.53 |
| UVA | 1.5 | 22% | 4.55 |
| UVA | 2.5 | 21% | 4.76 |
| UVA | 3.5 | 16% | 6.25 |
| UVA | 4.5 | 15% | 6.90 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
75% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.33: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 37.5 and under 73.5.
Passing TDs
Anytime TD
Kendrick Raphael
SMUvsUVA
WATCH
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
1.33
-300
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
68%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jekail Middlebrook
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
1.95
-105
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
49%
win
+3.9pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Beau Pribula
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.65
+165
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
28%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
17%
1/6
L20
17%
1/6
SZN
17%
1/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 15 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Derrick McFall
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.60
+160
+5c34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
34%
win
+0.9pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Kevin Jennings
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.85
+185
-15cFade34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
34%
win
+2.4pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Yamir Knight
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.70
+170
+5c34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
37%
win
+0.9pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jalen Cooper
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.10
+210
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
25%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Randy Pittman Jr.
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.40
+240
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
34%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Da'Shawn Martin
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.40
+240
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
34%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
83%
5/6
L20
83%
5/6
SZN
83%
5/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Xavier Brown
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.60
+260
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
25%
win
-0.6pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Yannick Smith
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.90
+290
+10cSteam34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
31%
win
+5.0pp
L5
50%
2/4
L10
50%
2/4
L20
50%
2/4
SZN
50%
2/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Theo Melin Ohrstrom
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.40
+340
+20cSteam34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
29%
win
+5.0pp
L5
67%
2/3
L10
67%
2/3
L20
67%
2/3
SZN
67%
2/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
TyLyric Coleman
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.00
+500
-25cFade34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
12%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jacquon Gibson
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
6.00
+500
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
22%
win
+5.0pp
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
1/4
L20
25%
1/4
SZN
25%
1/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jalen Hale
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
6.50
+550
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
9%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Isaiah Robinson
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
7.50
+650
flat34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
13%
win
+0.3pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Xay Davis
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.60
+260
+5c34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
20%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
John Rogers
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
11.00
+1000
+100cSteam34 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
14%
win
+5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Rushing Yards
Jekail Middlebrook
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 68.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
68.5
UNDER
68.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Kendrick Raphael
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 85.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
85.5
UNDER
85.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Beau Pribula
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 14.5
FD
1.89
-112
flat34 pulls
OVER
14.5
UNDER
14.5
54%
win
+4.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Receiving Yards
Yamir Knight
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 57.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
57.5
UNDER
57.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Da'Shawn Martin
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 37.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
37.5
UNDER
37.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Randy Pittman Jr.
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 24.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
24.5
UNDER
24.5
54%
win
+4.4pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Passing Yards
Kevin Jennings
SMUvsUVA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETPassing Yards 282.5
FD
1.88
-114
+3 lineSteam34 pulls
OVER
282.5
UNDER
282.5
54%
win
+3.5pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Beau Pribula
UVA@SMU
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETPassing Yards 187.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat34 pulls
OVER
187.5
UNDER
187.5
53%
win
+2.8pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-