Holden Geriner
PITT@BC
LEAN
Sat 12:00 PM ETPassing TDs 1.5
FD
1.42
-240
flat27 pulls
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
71%
win
+5.0pp
L5
100%
4/4
L10
100%
4/4
L20
100%
4/4
SZN
100%
4/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 12:00 PM ET
Pitt @ Boston College
Cards
25
Top Alpha Score
69
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| PITT | 69% | 1.46 |
| BC | 32% | 3.17 |
Total points · market line 43.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.5 | 72% | 1.39 | 28% | 3.57 |
| 37.5 | 65% | 1.55 | 36% | 2.82 |
| 40.5 | 56% | 1.77 | 44% | 2.30 |
| 43.5 | 48% | 2.11 | 53% | 1.90 |
| 44.5 | 45% | 2.25 | 55% | 1.80 |
| 45.5 | 41% | 2.47 | 60% | 1.68 |
| 46.5 | 40% | 2.53 | 61% | 1.65 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 1.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| PITT | 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| PITT | 3.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| PITT | 4.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| BC | 1.5 | 31% | 3.23 |
| BC | 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 |
| BC | 3.5 | 24% | 4.17 |
| BC | 4.5 | 22% | 4.65 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
79% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.27: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 28.5 and under 64.5.
Passing TDs
Receiving Yards
Javarius Green
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 40.5
FD
1.85
-118
flat27 pulls
OVER
40.5
UNDER
40.5
56%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Cataurus Hicks
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 50.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
50.5
UNDER
50.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Censere Lee
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 27.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
27.5
UNDER
27.5
53%
win
+3.4pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Rushing Yards
Mason McKenzie
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 55.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
55.5
UNDER
55.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Damon Ferguson Jr.
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 59.5
FD
1.88
-114
+4 lineSteam27 pulls
OVER
59.5
UNDER
59.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
83%
5/6
L20
83%
5/6
SZN
83%
5/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Passing Yards
Mason McKenzie
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETPassing Yards 195.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
195.5
UNDER
195.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Holden Geriner
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETPassing Yards 183.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
183.5
UNDER
183.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
75%
3/4
L10
75%
3/4
L20
75%
3/4
SZN
75%
3/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Anytime TD
Damon Ferguson Jr.
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.91
-110
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
42%
win
-5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Mason McKenzie
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.05
+105
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
47%
win
+3.7pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Evan Dickens
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.65
+165
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
39%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 13 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Cataurus Hicks
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.10
+210
-5c27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
34%
win
+5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Holden Geriner
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
8.50
+750
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
16%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Carson Kent
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.00
+400
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
21%
win
-1.4pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
17%
1/6
L20
17%
1/6
SZN
17%
1/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Javarius Green
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.80
+280
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
17%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Censere Lee
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
5.00
+400
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
27%
win
+5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Malik Knight
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
5.60
+460
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
21%
win
+5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Dawson Pough
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
7.00
+600
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
14%
win
+0.0pp
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
1/4
L20
25%
1/4
SZN
25%
1/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Zeke Moore
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
10.00
+900
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
5%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Johnathan Montague Jr.
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
8.00
+700
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
19%
win
+5.0pp
L5
67%
2/3
L10
67%
2/3
L20
67%
2/3
SZN
67%
2/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Bo MacCormack III
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.00
+500
-25cFade27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
13%
win
-2.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Elijah Lagg
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
8.00
+700
-50cFade27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
15%
win
+5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Tony Kinsler
PITT@BC
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
8.50
+750
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
5%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Brady Clough
BCvsPITT
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
9.00
+800
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
4%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/2
L10
0%
0/2
L20
0%
0/2
SZN
0%
0/2
H2H
-
ACC
-