Nate Sheppard
DUKEvsUNC
WATCH
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.30
-330
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
72%
win
+5.0pp
L5
100%
5/5
L10
100%
5/5
L20
100%
5/5
SZN
100%
5/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 3:30 PM ET
North Carolina @ Duke
Cards
31
Top Alpha Score
52
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| UNC | 42% | 2.41 |
| DUKE | 59% | 1.71 |
Total points · market line 46.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39.5 | 71% | 1.42 | 30% | 3.39 |
| 42.5 | 63% | 1.60 | 38% | 2.67 |
| 45.5 | 54% | 1.87 | 47% | 2.15 |
| 46.5 | 50% | 2.02 | 51% | 1.98 |
| 47.5 | 48% | 2.11 | 53% | 1.90 |
| 48.5 | 45% | 2.25 | 55% | 1.80 |
| 49.5 | 43% | 2.35 | 57% | 1.74 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 1.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| DUKE | 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| DUKE | 3.5 | 46% | 2.20 |
| DUKE | 4.5 | 43% | 2.35 |
| UNC | 1.5 | 39% | 2.60 |
| UNC | 2.5 | 38% | 2.67 |
| UNC | 3.5 | 33% | 3.08 |
| UNC | 4.5 | 30% | 3.39 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
75% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.33: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 33.5 and under 69.5.
Anytime TD
CJ Campbell Jr.
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
1.83
-120
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
36%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Benjamin Hall
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
2.00
+100
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
41%
win
-5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 18 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Demon June
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
2.00
+100
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
48%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jelani Thurman
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.00
+200
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
37%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jordan Shipp
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.45
+245
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
25%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jeremiah Hasley
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.50
+250
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
21%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jaylen McGill
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.60
+260
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
24%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jonah Burton
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.10
+310
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
17%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jayden Moore
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
7.00
+600
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
13%
win
-1.7pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Shamar Easter
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.50
+450
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
22%
win
+5.0pp
L5
50%
2/4
L10
50%
2/4
L20
50%
2/4
SZN
50%
2/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Billy Edwards Jr.
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.50
+450
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
13%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Mason Humphrey
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
8.50
+750
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
8%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jared Richardson
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.00
+500
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
27%
win
+5.0pp
L5
67%
2/3
L10
67%
2/3
L20
67%
2/3
SZN
67%
2/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jake Taylor
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.00
+500
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
9%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Trech Kekahuna
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.50
+550
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
10%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Kavon Simmons
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
7.50
+650
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
16%
win
+5.0pp
L5
67%
2/3
L10
67%
2/3
L20
67%
2/3
SZN
67%
2/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jaivon Solomon
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
7.50
+650
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
18%
win
+5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
C.J. Sadler
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
7.00
+600
+50cSteam27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
10%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Walker Eget
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
9.00
+800
flat27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
11%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Nate Kurisky
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
12.00
+1100
-100cFade27 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
2%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Passing TDs
Receiving Yards
Jordan Shipp
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 75.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
75.5
UNDER
75.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jared Richardson
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 30.5
FD
1.85
-118
flat27 pulls
OVER
30.5
UNDER
30.5
56%
win
+5.0pp
L5
67%
2/3
L10
67%
2/3
L20
67%
2/3
SZN
67%
2/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jeremiah Hasley
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 37.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
37.5
UNDER
37.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 2 more Receiving YardsShow fewer
Jonah Burton
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 29.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
29.5
UNDER
29.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jelani Thurman
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 47.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
47.5
UNDER
47.5
53%
win
+3.2pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Passing Yards
Walker Eget
DUKEvsUNC
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETPassing Yards 195.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
195.5
UNDER
195.5
54%
win
+4.4pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Billy Edwards Jr.
UNC@DUKE
PASS
Sat 3:30 PM ETPassing Yards 208.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat27 pulls
OVER
208.5
UNDER
208.5
51%
win
+0.7pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-