Bear Bachmeier
BYUvsND
LEAN
Sat 7:30 PM ETPassing TDs 0.5
FD
1.63
-158
+4c23 pulls
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
63%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame @ BYU
Cards
38
Top Alpha Score
68
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ND | 79% | 1.27 |
| BYU | 22% | 4.65 |
Total points · market line 47.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.5 | 71% | 1.42 | 30% | 3.39 |
| 41.5 | 66% | 1.53 | 35% | 2.90 |
| 44.5 | 59% | 1.71 | 42% | 2.41 |
| 47.5 | 48% | 2.11 | 53% | 1.90 |
| 48.5 | 46% | 2.20 | 54% | 1.83 |
| 49.5 | 44% | 2.30 | 56% | 1.77 |
| 50.5 | 42% | 2.41 | 59% | 1.71 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 1.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| ND | 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| ND | 3.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| ND | 4.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| BYU | 1.5 | 20% | 5.13 |
| BYU | 2.5 | 19% | 5.41 |
| BYU | 3.5 | 15% | 6.67 |
| BYU | 4.5 | 14% | 7.41 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
77% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.30: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 32.5 and under 68.5.
Passing TDs
Receptions
Legend Glasker
BYUvsND
WATCH
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceptions 3.5
FD
1.77
-130
flat23 pulls
OVER
3.5
UNDER
3.5
58%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jaden Greathouse
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceptions 2.5
FD
1.57
-174
flat23 pulls
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
57%
win
-2.6pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jordan Faison
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceptions 4.5
FD
1.71
-140
flat23 pulls
OVER
4.5
UNDER
4.5
50%
win
-3.8pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 3 more ReceptionsShow fewer
Kyler Kasper
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceptions 2.5
FD
2.28
+128
flat23 pulls
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
47%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Micah Gilbert
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceptions 2.5
FD
2.04
+104
flat23 pulls
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
50%
win
+4.7pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Walker Lyons
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceptions 2.5
FD
2.02
+102
flat23 pulls
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
50%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Receiving Yards
Legend Glasker
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 45.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
45.5
UNDER
45.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jordan Faison
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 55.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
55.5
UNDER
55.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Micah Gilbert
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 37.5
FD
1.85
-118
flat23 pulls
OVER
37.5
UNDER
37.5
56%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 3 more Receiving YardsShow fewer
Jaden Greathouse
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 26.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
26.5
UNDER
26.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Walker Lyons
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 22.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
22.5
UNDER
22.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Kyler Kasper
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETReceiving Yards 33.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
33.5
UNDER
33.5
51%
win
+1.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Passing Yards
Bear Bachmeier
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETPassing Yards 181.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
181.5
UNDER
181.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
CJ Carr
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETPassing Yards 231.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
231.5
UNDER
231.5
53%
win
+2.7pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
17%
1/6
L20
17%
1/6
SZN
17%
1/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Rushing Yards
Nolan James Jr.
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETRushing Yards 37.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
37.5
UNDER
37.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Bear Bachmeier
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETRushing Yards 38.5
FD
1.89
-112
flat23 pulls
OVER
38.5
UNDER
38.5
54%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Preston Rex
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETRushing Yards 19.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat23 pulls
OVER
19.5
UNDER
19.5
50%
win
+0.4pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Anytime TD
Nolan James Jr.
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.25
+125
-5c23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
48%
win
+5.0pp
L5
100%
5/5
L10
100%
6/6
L20
100%
6/6
SZN
100%
6/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Bear Bachmeier
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.30
+130
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
44%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jordan Faison
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
2.30
+130
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
41%
win
+0.6pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 16 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Preston Rex
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.50
+250
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
25%
win
-2.4pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
CJ Carr
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.60
+260
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
31%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Micah Gilbert
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.00
+200
+5c23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
26%
win
-5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Legend Glasker
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.80
+280
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
30%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Kyler Kasper
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.20
+320
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
27%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jaden Greathouse
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.55
+255
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
31%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Devaughn Eka
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.00
+400
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
23%
win
+5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Cooper Flanagan
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.25
+425
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
24%
win
+5.0pp
L5
50%
2/4
L10
50%
2/4
L20
50%
2/4
SZN
50%
2/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Walker Lyons
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.75
+475
+25cSteam23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
10%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jojo Phillips
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
7.50
+650
-50cFade23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
7%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Elijah Burress
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
8.50
+750
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
18%
win
+5.0pp
L5
50%
1/2
L10
50%
1/2
L20
50%
1/2
SZN
50%
1/2
H2H
-
ACC
-
Mylan Graham
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
8.50
+750
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
9%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Roger Saleapaga II
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
10.50
+950
flat23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
3%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jerome Bettis Jr.
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
8.50
+750
+50cSteam23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
5%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Reggie Frischknecht
BYUvsND
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
10.50
+950
-50cFade23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
13%
win
+5.0pp
L5
50%
1/2
L10
50%
1/2
L20
50%
1/2
SZN
50%
1/2
H2H
-
ACC
-
James Flanigan
ND@BYU
PASS
Sat 7:30 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
12.00
+1100
-100cFade23 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
12%
win
+5.0pp
L5
33%
1/3
L10
33%
1/3
L20
33%
1/3
SZN
33%
1/3
H2H
-
ACC
-