KJ Jackson
ARK@VAN
LEAN
Sat 7:00 PM ETPassing TDs 1.5
FD
1.56
-180
flat39 pulls
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
65%
win
+3.4pp
L5
100%
5/5
L10
83%
5/6
L20
83%
5/6
SZN
83%
5/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 7:00 PM ET
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt
Cards
32
Top Alpha Score
71
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ARK | 32% | 3.08 |
| VAN | 68% | 1.48 |
Total points · market line 50.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.5 | 56% | 1.79 | 44% | 2.27 |
| 48.5 | 55% | 1.83 | 45% | 2.20 |
| 49.5 | 53% | 1.90 | 48% | 2.11 |
| 50.5 | 49% | 2.06 | 52% | 1.94 |
| 51.5 | 46% | 2.20 | 54% | 1.83 |
| 52.5 | 43% | 2.33 | 57% | 1.75 |
| 55.5 | 36% | 2.82 | 65% | 1.55 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1.5 | 66% | 1.53 |
| VAN | 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| VAN | 3.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| VAN | 4.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| ARK | 1.5 | 30% | 3.33 |
| ARK | 2.5 | 29% | 3.51 |
| ARK | 3.5 | 24% | 4.17 |
| ARK | 4.5 | 22% | 4.55 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
71% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.41: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 37.5 and under 70.5.
Passing TDs
Receptions
Tristen Brown
VANvsARK
LEAN
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceptions 2.5
FD
1.68
-148
flat39 pulls
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
62%
win
+4.4pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Chris Marshall
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceptions 6.5
FD
1.77
-130
flat39 pulls
OVER
6.5
UNDER
6.5
56%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
83%
5/6
L20
83%
5/6
SZN
83%
5/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Ty Lockwood
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceptions 1.5
FD
2.06
+106
flat39 pulls
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
53%
win
+5.0pp
L5
100%
4/4
L10
100%
4/4
L20
100%
4/4
SZN
100%
4/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Anytime TD
Sedrick Alexander
VANvsARK
WATCH
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.71
-140
-5c39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
59%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
83%
5/6
L20
83%
5/6
SZN
83%
5/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jared Curtis
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.95
-105
-5c39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
41%
win
-5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Junior Sherrill
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
2.00
+100
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
40%
win
-3.5pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 15 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Chris Marshall
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
2.30
+130
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
37%
win
-0.7pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
KJ Jackson
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.65
+165
-20cFade39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
36%
win
+1.1pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
17%
1/6
L20
17%
1/6
SZN
17%
1/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Cam Settles
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.90
+290
-40cFade39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
19%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Tristen Brown
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.00
+500
-25cFade39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
11%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/6
L20
0%
0/6
SZN
0%
0/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jayvontay Conner
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
5.50
+450
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
14%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Ty Lockwood
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
6.00
+500
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
20%
win
+5.0pp
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
1/4
L20
25%
1/4
SZN
25%
1/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jaden Platt
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
7.00
+600
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
19%
win
+5.0pp
L5
50%
2/4
L10
50%
2/4
L20
50%
2/4
SZN
50%
2/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
CJ Brown
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
7.00
+600
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
14%
win
-1.5pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Ismael Cisse
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
7.00
+600
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
19%
win
+5.0pp
L5
67%
2/3
L10
67%
2/3
L20
67%
2/3
SZN
67%
2/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jamari Hawkins
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
9.50
+850
-150cFade39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
5%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Brycen Coleman
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
8.50
+750
-50cFade39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
13%
win
+1.7pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Donovan Faupel
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
12.00
+1100
-100cFade39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
3%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Braylen Russell
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.50
+350
-175cFade39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
33%
win
+5.0pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jamezell Lassiter
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.30
+230
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
22%
win
-2.8pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
17%
1/6
L20
17%
1/6
SZN
17%
1/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jasper Parker
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
10.50
+950
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
3%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Passing Yards
Jared Curtis
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETPassing Yards 234.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
234.5
UNDER
234.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
KJ Jackson
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETPassing Yards 216.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
216.5
UNDER
216.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Receiving Yards
Chris Marshall
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 87.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
87.5
UNDER
87.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
2/6
SZN
33%
2/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jayvontay Conner
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 14.5
FD
1.93
-108
flat39 pulls
OVER
14.5
UNDER
14.5
54%
win
+5.0pp
L5
75%
3/4
L10
75%
3/4
L20
75%
3/4
SZN
75%
3/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Ty Lockwood
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 16.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
16.5
UNDER
16.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
75%
3/4
L10
75%
3/4
L20
75%
3/4
SZN
75%
3/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 2 more Receiving YardsShow fewer
Junior Sherrill
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 78.5
FD
1.88
-114
+3 lineSteam39 pulls
OVER
78.5
UNDER
78.5
54%
win
+3.7pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Tristen Brown
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 22.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
22.5
UNDER
22.5
52%
win
+1.8pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
83%
5/6
L20
83%
5/6
SZN
83%
5/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Rushing Yards
Sedrick Alexander
VANvsARK
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETRushing Yards 40.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
40.5
UNDER
40.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Cam Settles
ARK@VAN
PASS
Sat 7:00 PM ETRushing Yards 30.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
30.5
UNDER
30.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-