Arch Manning
TEXvsFLA
STRONG
Sat 12:00 PM ETPassing TDs 1.5
FD
1.77
-130
flat39 pulls
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
61%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
CFB · 12:00 PM ET
Florida @ Texas
Cards
26
Top Alpha Score
77
PRESS
0
Sharp source
Model
Prediction markets
Kalshi · the market's prices, not ours · refreshed every 2 minMoneyline
| Team | Wins | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| FLA | 20% | 4.88 |
| TEX | 80% | 1.26 |
Total points · market line 51.5
| Line | Over | Fair | Under | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.5 | 73% | 1.37 | 27% | 3.70 |
| 45.5 | 65% | 1.55 | 36% | 2.82 |
| 48.5 | 57% | 1.75 | 43% | 2.33 |
| 51.5 | 50% | 2.02 | 51% | 1.98 |
| 52.5 | 47% | 2.15 | 54% | 1.87 |
| 53.5 | 44% | 2.30 | 56% | 1.77 |
| 54.5 | 42% | 2.38 | 58% | 1.72 |
Spread: wins by more than
| Team | By | Chance | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 1.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| TEX | 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| TEX | 3.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| TEX | 4.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| FLA | 1.5 | 19% | 5.26 |
| FLA | 2.5 | 19% | 5.41 |
| FLA | 3.5 | 14% | 7.14 |
| FLA | 4.5 | 13% | 8.00 |
Range calculator
Total lands overand underpoints
76% chance, by the market. Fair price 1.32: any price above that is positive EV, if the market is right. Built as two contracts, over 36.5 and under 72.5.
Passing TDs
Passing Yards
Rushing Yards
Jadan Baugh
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 77.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
77.5
UNDER
77.5
55%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Hollywood Smothers
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 60.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
60.5
UNDER
60.5
53%
win
+3.1pp
L5
50%
2/4
L10
50%
2/4
L20
50%
2/4
SZN
50%
2/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Arch Manning
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETRushing Yards 23.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
23.5
UNDER
23.5
52%
win
+1.7pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Anytime TD
Jadan Baugh
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.63
-160
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
58%
win
+5.0pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
83%
5/6
L20
83%
5/6
SZN
83%
5/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Hollywood Smothers
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
1.74
-135
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
51%
win
-1.9pp
L5
50%
2/4
L10
50%
2/4
L20
50%
2/4
SZN
50%
2/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Arch Manning
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.10
+110
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
38%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Show 14 more Anytime TDShow fewer
Cam Coleman
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.40
+140
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
42%
win
+5.0pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Raleek Brown
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
2.75
+175
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
43%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
2/5
L20
40%
2/5
SZN
40%
2/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Derrek Cooper
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
3.95
+295
+5c39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
25%
win
-1.3pp
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
1/4
L20
25%
1/4
SZN
25%
1/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Evan Pryor
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
6.50
+550
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
16%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Emmett Mosley V
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
3.70
+270
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
19%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Aaron Philo
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
4.50
+350
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
26%
win
+5.0pp
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
SZN
50%
3/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Vernell Brown III
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
5.00
+400
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
26%
win
+5.0pp
L5
50%
2/4
L10
50%
2/4
L20
50%
2/4
SZN
50%
2/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Jermaine Bishop Jr.
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
5.90
+490
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
21%
win
+5.0pp
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
1/4
L20
25%
1/4
SZN
25%
1/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
TJ Abrams
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
5.90
+490
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
13%
win
-1.7pp
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
1/5
L20
20%
1/5
SZN
20%
1/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Luke Harpring
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
9.00
+800
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
6%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/6
L20
0%
0/6
SZN
0%
0/6
H2H
-
ACC
-
Spencer Shannon
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
10.00
+900
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
7%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/3
L10
0%
0/3
L20
0%
0/3
SZN
0%
0/3
H2H
-
ACC
-
Amir Jackson
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
FD
10.00
+900
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
16%
win
+5.0pp
L5
25%
1/4
L10
25%
1/4
L20
25%
1/4
SZN
25%
1/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
London Montgomery
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
8.00
+700
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
5%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/5
L20
0%
0/5
SZN
0%
0/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Micah Mays Jr.
FLA@TEX
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETAnytime TD 0.5
DK
12.00
+1100
flat39 pulls
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
3%
win
-5.0pp
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/4
L20
0%
0/4
SZN
0%
0/4
H2H
-
ACC
-
Receptions
Receiving Yards
Cam Coleman
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 65.5
FD
1.88
-114
flat39 pulls
OVER
65.5
UNDER
65.5
51%
win
+0.8pp
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
3/5
L20
60%
3/5
SZN
60%
3/5
H2H
-
ACC
-
Emmett Mosley V
TEXvsFLA
PASS
Sat 12:00 PM ETReceiving Yards 43.5
FD
1.89
-112
flat39 pulls
OVER
43.5
UNDER
43.5
51%
win
+1.2pp
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
4/5
L20
80%
4/5
SZN
80%
4/5
H2H
-
ACC
-