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MLB · TB @ CLE · 5:00 PM ET·
Ryan Vilade
Runs 0.5 · TB · @ CLE · Rays at GuardiansEvery Ryan Vilade market today →
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Runs 0.5 · TB · @ CLE · Rays at GuardiansEvery Ryan Vilade market today →
This is read 32 of 53 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 53 lose together 0.0% to 20.3% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -355 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Bet Data Labs has graded 86 MLB runs cards. The model predicted 62% on average and they hit 65%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 86 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.8pp for it.
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (29% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5now | 58% | - | 42% | 1.28 (-355) | -26.3% |
| 1push-safe | 58% | 29% | 13% | 1.23 (-443) fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 73% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK★ Best | 0.5 | 3.44 (+244)3.44 | 1.28 (-355)1.28 |
Components sum to 52; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.28 (-355) the price needs 78% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 78% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB runs under) hit 65.1% over 86 graded cards. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.