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NBA · OKC @ SA · 9:30 PM ET·
Jared McCain
Reb + Ast 3.5 · OKC · @ SA · Thunder at SpursEvery Jared McCain market today →
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Reb + Ast 3.5 · OKC · @ SA · Thunder at SpursEvery Jared McCain market today →
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +101 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Buy this under up to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake instead of losing (10% of outcomes), same win chance as the 3.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 43% | 10% | 47% | 2.09 (+109) fair | - |
| 3.5nowbest EV | 53% | - | 47% | 2.01 (+101) | +6.5% |
| 53% |
| 10% |
| 37% |
| 1.70 (-142) fair |
| - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 47% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK★ Best | 3.5 | 1.75 (-133)1.75 | 2.01 (+101)2.01 |
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 2.01 (+101) the price needs 50% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 3.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 50% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.