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Enrique Hernandez · Hits + Runs + RBIs · Bet Data Labs
Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5 · LAD · vs MIL · Brewers at Dodgers
41 games this season, 100% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
52%
Market %
54%
Diff
+20.0%
Market
Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5
DK
-139
1.72
Projection0.6vs0.5(+20%)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
46%
19/41
H2H
0%
0/4
ACC
54%
n=102
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on MLB hits + runs + rbis over plays: 54% of 102 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.8pp
EV
-11.3%
Alpha Score
15
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 22-13 on Hernandez
Why this card
›Hits + Runs + RBIs projection 0.6 vs line 0.5
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 54% across 1 book
›Calibration: MLB Hits + Runs + RBIs plays predicted ~54% have hit 54% over 102 graded, of which 102 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 0.3pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
Bet Data Labs has graded 102 MLB hits + runs + rbis cards. The model predicted 54% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 102 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 0.3pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)54.4%
Fair price-119 · 1.84
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/15, 1:52 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.60 vs 0.5
41 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportMLB
PropHRRBI
Games41
Current games41
Prior games0
›All model inputs (18)
Variance1.83
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
-1391.72
+1052.05
DK implied, with vig (this side): 58.2%
Confidence readOn the fence
52% to hitrange 41-62%price needs 58%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -139 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
52%
-
48%
-139
-10.8%
1
34%
18%
48%
+143 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
Other · 5
Brandon Woodruff?
Woodruff (shoulder) threw roughly 30 pitches during a bullpen session Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Grant Anderson?
Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Brian Fitzpatrick?
Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Quinn Priester?
Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Angel Zerpa?
The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 54% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 7
Blake Treinen?
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
Will Klein?
Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Eric Lauer?
The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
Gavin Stone?
Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
Jake Cousins?
Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
Ben Casparius?
Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
Brusdar Graterol?
Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Enrique Hernandez · H+R+RBI vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.8
LAST 10
40%
4/10 over · avg 1.0
SEASON
46%
19/41 over · avg 1.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At -139 the price needs 58% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYMIL
103-59
L108-2
StreakW5
Road48-33
Run diff+1.3
HOMELAD
100-62
L108-2
StreakW3
Home51-30
Run diff+1.2
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Enrique Hernandez · Hits + Runs + RBIs vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Oct 15vsMILL0Miss
Oct 12@MILL0Miss
Oct 7@ATLW0Miss
Oct 6@ATLW4Hit
Sep 27@SFW0Miss
Sep 26@SFW3Hit
Sep 26@SFW1Hit
Sep 20vsSFW2Hit
Sep 20vsSFW0Miss
Sep 19vsSFW0Miss
Sep 16@CINL1Hit
Sep 14@CINW2Hit
Sep 13@MIAL1Hit
Sep 11@MIAW0Miss
Sep 10vsCINW8Hit
Sep 9vsCINW0Miss
Sep 7vsWSHW0Miss
Sep 6vsWSHW2Hit
Sep 5vsWSHW1Hit
Sep 4vsSTLW0Miss
Sep 3vsSTLL0Miss
Sep 2vsSTLL2Hit
Aug 30@DETW1Hit
Aug 29@DETL0Miss
Aug 28@DETW2Hit
Aug 27@ATLL0Miss
Aug 22vsPITW1Hit
Aug 20@COLW6Hit
Aug 18@COLW0Miss
Aug 15vsMILW0Miss
Aug 14vsMILL0Miss
Aug 9@ARIL2Hit
Aug 8@ARIL0Miss
Aug 5@CHCL0Miss
Aug 4@CHCL0Miss
Aug 2vsBOSL0Miss
Aug 2vsBOSL0Miss
Aug 1vsBOSL1Hit
Jul 31vsSEAW0Miss
May 27vsCOLW5Hit
May 26vsCOLW3Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 58% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB hits + runs + rbis over) hit 53.9% over 102 graded cards. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
