Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on MLB runs under plays: 65% of 86 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.2pp
EV
-9.5%
Alpha Score
50
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 27-8 on Pratt
◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (28% push)
⧉
Same-Game Cap
This is read 31 of 49 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 49 lose together 0.0% to 20.9% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Why this card
›Runs projection 0.3 vs line 0.5
›Model read P(under) 60% sits 9pp off the market. Runs has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(under) 68% across 2 books
›Calibration: MLB Runs plays predicted ~62% have hit 65% over 86 graded, of which 86 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.8pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Same-game cap: read 31 of 49 the board is showing on this game, and reads past the 2nd went 22-43 (33.8%) in July. Sized down, do not stack with its siblings. All 49 lose together somewhere between 0.0% and 20.9% of the time, and same-game legs sit near the top of that band.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 86 MLB runs cards. The model predicted 62% on average and they hit 65%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 86 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 0.5)68.4%
Fair price+216 · 3.16
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/15, 7:53 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.25 vs 0.5
81 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportMLB
PropRUNS
Games81
Current games81
Prior games0
›All model inputs (18)
Variance0.70
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
+1912.91
-2721.37
DK implied, with vig (this side): 73.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
66% to hitrange 58-74%price needs 73%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -272 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 50?
TOTAL
50/100
Win prob+55/ 55
Calibrated win probability 66%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 68% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 52; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (28% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
60%
-
40%
-272
-18.1%
1push-safe
60%
28%
12%
-502 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
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Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
Other · 5
Brandon Woodruff?
Woodruff (shoulder) threw roughly 30 pitches during a bullpen session Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Grant Anderson?
Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Brian Fitzpatrick?
Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Quinn Priester?
Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Angel Zerpa?
The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 68% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 7
Blake Treinen?
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
Will Klein?
Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Eric Lauer?
The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
Gavin Stone?
Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
Jake Cousins?
Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
Ben Casparius?
Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
Brusdar Graterol?
Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYMIL
103-59
L108-2
StreakW5
Road48-33
Run diff+1.3
HOMELAD
100-62
L108-2
StreakW3
Home51-30
Run diff+1.2
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Cooper Pratt · Runs vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 0.4
LAST 10
80%
8/10 under · avg 0.2
SEASON
65%
53/81 under · avg 0.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -272 the price needs 73% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Cooper Pratt · Runs vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Oct 15@LADW1Miss
Oct 12vsLADW0Hit
Oct 12vsLADW0Hit
Oct 8@SDW0Hit
Oct 7@SDL1Miss
Oct 4vsSDW0Hit
Oct 4vsSDW0Hit
Sep 27vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 26vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 25vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 24@PHIW0Hit
Sep 22@PHIL0Hit
Sep 20@BALW0Hit
Sep 19@BALW0Hit
Sep 18@BALW1Miss
Sep 17@PITL0Hit
Sep 16@PITW1Miss
Sep 13vsCINL0Hit
Sep 12vsCINW1Miss
Sep 11vsCINW2Miss
Sep 9vsCHCW0Hit
Sep 8vsCHCW0Hit
Sep 7vsCHCW0Hit
Sep 6@CINL0Hit
Sep 5@CINL1Miss
Sep 4@CINW1Miss
Sep 2@CHCW1Miss
Sep 1@CHCW0Hit
Aug 31@CHCL1Miss
Aug 29vsTEXW0Hit
Aug 27@NYMW1Miss
Aug 26@NYMW2Miss
Aug 25@NYML0Hit
Aug 23vsATLL0Hit
Aug 22vsATLW1Miss
Aug 21vsATLW0Hit
Aug 19vsSEAL0Hit
Aug 8vsMINW0Hit
Aug 7vsMINL0Hit
Aug 6vsPITW1Miss
Aug 5vsPITW0Hit
Aug 4vsPITW1Miss
Aug 3vsPITL0Hit
Aug 2@LAAL0Hit
Aug 2@LAAW0Hit
Aug 1@LAAW1Miss
Jul 29@SFL0Hit
Jul 29@SFW2Miss
Jul 28@SFL0Hit
Jul 26vsCOLW1Miss
Jul 25vsCOLW1Miss
Jul 22vsNYMW0Hit
Jul 21vsNYML0Hit
Jul 20vsNYMW2Miss
Jul 19vsMIAW0Hit
Jul 18vsMIAW1Miss
Jul 17vsMIAW0Hit
Jul 11@PITL0Hit
Jul 11@PITL1Miss
Jul 9@STLW0Hit
Jul 8@STLL0Hit
Jul 7@STLW2Miss
Jul 7@STLW2Miss
Jul 6@STLW0Hit
Jul 5@ARIL0Hit
Jul 4@ARIW1Miss
Jul 2vsCINL0Hit
Jul 2vsCINW0Hit
Jun 29vsCINW0Hit
Jun 28vsCHCL0Hit
Jun 27vsCHCL0Hit
Jun 26vsCHCW2Miss
Jun 24@CINW0Hit
Jun 23@CINW0Hit
Jun 22@CINW0Hit
Jun 21@ATLW0Hit
Jun 20@ATLL1Miss
Jun 19@ATLL0Hit
Jun 18vsCLEL0Hit
Jun 17vsCLEW1Miss
Jun 16vsCLEW0Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 73% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB runs under) hit 65.1% over 86 graded cards. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
