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4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
46.5
UNDER
46.5
Our win %
52%
Market %
50%
Edge
+2.1pp
Market
Rushing Yards 46.5
FD
1.88
-114
Projection32.1vs46.5(14.4 under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
80%
16/20
SZN
81%
17/21
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
54%
n=990
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards under plays: 54% of 990 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+2.1pp
EV
-2.2%
Alpha Score
31
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 0-10 on White
◆Best lineBetter number: Under 47.5 at 1.88 (-114) (+25.6% EV)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
52% to hitrange 47-57%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 32.1 vs line 46.5
›Model read P(under) 66% sits 16pp off the market. Rushing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test clears: we are 14.4 off the 46.5 (31% of the line), past both the 17% and the 10 gap this stat needs.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 990 graded, of which 496 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 2.9pp.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 990 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 496 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 2.9pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 46.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 8:54 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line32.10 vs 46.5
4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games4
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean29.50
Prior mean33.60
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Rachaad White · Under the number
model projects 32.1
The best move
Best value is the 47.5 at 1.88 (-114) (25.6% EV) - a better number than the 46.5 this card is priced at.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
47.5
1.91 (-110)1.91
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD★ Best
46.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Line history
Loading…
EDGE TESTCLEARS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-2.2%
Edge %+2.1pp
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYWSH
1-3
L101-3
Streak-
Road0-0
Run diff-34.0
HOMESF
5-0
L105-0
StreakW5
Home0-0
Run diff+61.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Rachaad White · Rushing Yards vs 46.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
4/4 under · avg 29.5
LAST 10
100%
4/4 under · avg 29.5
SEASON
100%
4/4 under · avg 29.5
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards under) hit 54.3% over 990 graded cards, 988 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Game log
Rachaad White · Rushing Yards vs 46.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
100%5/5 under
Line 46.5
23
22
43
35
18
CARPHIDALSEANYG
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 11vsNYG-18Hit
Sep 27vsSEAW35Hit
Sep 20@DALL43Hit
Sep 13@PHIL22Hit
Jan 3vsCARW23Hit
Dec 28@MIAL10Hit
Dec 21@CARL45Hit
Dec 12vsATLL20Hit
Dec 7vsNOL53Miss
Nov 30vsARIW7Hit
Nov 24@LARL38Hit
Nov 16@BUFL51Miss
Nov 9vsNEL38Hit
Oct 26@NOW35Hit
Oct 20@DETL38Hit
Oct 12vsSFW65Miss
Oct 5@SEAW41Hit
Sep 28vsPHIL17Hit
Sep 21vsNYJW12Hit
Sep 15@HOUW65Miss
Sep 7@ATLW14Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 46.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
WSH
Out · 4
Javontae Jean-BaptisteOUT
Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) will be sidelined for Monday's clash against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Charles OmenihuOUT
Omenihu (groin/ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against San Francisco, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Marcus MariotaOUT
Mariota (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Jacory Croskey-MerrittOUT
Croskey-Merritt (groin) has been ruled out for Monday night's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 6
Stefon DiggsQ
Diggs (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against San Francisco.
Nick CrossQ
questionable
Lucas PatrickQ
questionable
Javon KinlawQ
questionable
Tyler OwensQ
questionable
Percy ButlerQ
questionable
Other · 15ShowHide
Jeremy McNichols?
McNichols (quadriceps) is questionable for Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Jeremy Reaves?
Reaves (rib) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Treylon Burks?
Burks (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game in San Francisco.
Austin Ekeler?
Ekeler (chest) does not carry an injury designation into Monday's game against the 49ers.
Rachaad White?
White (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game at San Francisco.
Terry McLaurin?
McLaurin (hamstring) does not have an injury designation ahead of Monday's game against the 49ers.
Fabian Moreau?
Quan Martin?
SF
Out · 4
Marques SigleOUT
Sigle (ankle) won't play in Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Nick BosaOUT
Bosa (knee/calf) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against the Commanders, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Deebo Samuel Sr.OUT
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that the 49ers will "hold off" on placing Samuel (hamstring) on IR due to the team's bye in Week 8, Vic Tafur of the Athletic reports.
Garret WallowOUT
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Wallow will miss "at least a couple of weeks" due to a hamstring strain, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Mykel WilliamsQ
Williams (knee) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Upton StoutQ
Stout (shoulder) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Jordan Magee?
Magee (hamstring) was designated to return from injured reserve Thursday.
Antonio Williams?
Williams hauled in all three of his targets for 31 yards and added a two-yard punt return during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Van Jefferson?
Jefferson reverted to the Commanders' practice squad Monday.
Chig Okonkwo?
Okonkwo caught four of six targets for 60 yards during Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants.
Tanoa Togiai?
Drew Stevens?
Stevens made both of his field-goal attempts and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Jayden Daniels?
Daniels (elbow) completed 17 of 25 passes for 199 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants. He also threw a successful two-point conversion.
Mike EvansQ
Evans (ribs) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Washington, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports.
Siran NealQ
questionable
Gracen HaltonQ
questionable
Other · 16ShowHide
James Thompson Jr.?
Thompson (ankle) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Romello Height?
Kaelon Black?
Black was excused from Saturday's practice to address a personal matter but does not have an injury designation for Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Colton McKivitz?
Christian Kirk?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Saturday that the 49ers may activate Kirk (calf) from injured reserve ahead of Monday's game against the Commanders, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Kyle Juszczyk?
Juszczyk (knee) was a full participant in Friday's practice, Harrison Rich of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Carver Willis?
Demarcus Robinson?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that Robinson (ankle) has an "outside chance" to return from injured reserve for the 49ers' Week 7 game versus the Falcons but is more likely to be activated following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.
Dre Greenlaw?
Greenlaw's appeal of a one-game suspension was denied by the NFL on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Nick Martin?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Martin's (hamstring) status will be evaluated "in these next couple of days," Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Tatum Bethune?
Enrique Cruz Jr.?
Kurtis Rourke?
Eddy Pineiro?
Pineiro went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
Renardo Green?
Green logged one solo tackle and three pass defenses (including two interceptions) during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
George Kittle?
Kittle (illness) caught five of six targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 32-29 win over the Seahawks.
