Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards under plays: 54% of 990 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-1.7pp
EV
-9.4%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-2 on Black
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
★ RECENT FORM
Kaelon Black · Rushing Yards vs 23.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 under · avg 27.2
LAST 10
60%
3/5 under · avg 27.2
SEASON
60%
3/5 under · avg 27.2
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYWSH
1-3
L101-3
Streak-
Road0-0
Run diff-34.0
HOMESF
5-0
L105-0
StreakW5
Home0-0
Run diff+61.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
WSH
Out · 4
Javontae Jean-BaptisteOUT
Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) will be sidelined for Monday's clash against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Charles OmenihuOUT
Omenihu (groin/ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against San Francisco, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Marcus MariotaOUT
Mariota (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Jacory Croskey-MerrittOUT
Croskey-Merritt (groin) has been ruled out for Monday night's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 6
Stefon DiggsQ
Diggs (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against San Francisco.
Confidence readOn the fence
48% to hitrange 37-59%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 22.5 vs line 23.5
›Edge test fails: our 1.0 gap is only 4% of the 23.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 990 graded, of which 496 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 2.9pp.
›Baby line: 23.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Thin sample: the projection rests on 5 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 990 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 496 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 2.9pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 23.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 8:54 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line22.50 vs 23.5
5 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
Current mean27.20
Role shift0
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Kaelon Black · Under the number
model projects 22.5
The best move
The 23.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
24.5
1.91 (-110)1.91
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD★ Best
23.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
McNichols (quadriceps) is questionable for Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Jeremy Reaves?
Reaves (rib) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Treylon Burks?
Burks (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game in San Francisco.
Austin Ekeler?
Ekeler (chest) does not carry an injury designation into Monday's game against the 49ers.
Rachaad White?
White (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game at San Francisco.
Terry McLaurin?
McLaurin (hamstring) does not have an injury designation ahead of Monday's game against the 49ers.
Fabian Moreau?
Quan Martin?
Jordan Magee?
Magee (hamstring) was designated to return from injured reserve Thursday.
Antonio Williams?
Williams hauled in all three of his targets for 31 yards and added a two-yard punt return during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Van Jefferson?
Jefferson reverted to the Commanders' practice squad Monday.
Chig Okonkwo?
Okonkwo caught four of six targets for 60 yards during Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants.
Tanoa Togiai?
Drew Stevens?
Stevens made both of his field-goal attempts and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Jayden Daniels?
Daniels (elbow) completed 17 of 25 passes for 199 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants. He also threw a successful two-point conversion.
SF
Out · 4
Marques SigleOUT
Sigle (ankle) won't play in Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Nick BosaOUT
Bosa (knee/calf) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against the Commanders, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Deebo Samuel Sr.OUT
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that the 49ers will "hold off" on placing Samuel (hamstring) on IR due to the team's bye in Week 8, Vic Tafur of the Athletic reports.
Garret WallowOUT
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Wallow will miss "at least a couple of weeks" due to a hamstring strain, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Mykel WilliamsQ
Williams (knee) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Upton StoutQ
Stout (shoulder) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Mike EvansQ
Evans (ribs) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Washington, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports.
Siran NealQ
questionable
Gracen HaltonQ
questionable
Other · 16ShowHide
James Thompson Jr.?
Thompson (ankle) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Romello Height?
Kaelon Black?
Black was excused from Saturday's practice to address a personal matter but does not have an injury designation for Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Colton McKivitz?
Christian Kirk?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Saturday that the 49ers may activate Kirk (calf) from injured reserve ahead of Monday's game against the Commanders, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Kyle Juszczyk?
Juszczyk (knee) was a full participant in Friday's practice, Harrison Rich of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Carver Willis?
Demarcus Robinson?
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards under) hit 54.3% over 990 graded cards, 988 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that Robinson (ankle) has an "outside chance" to return from injured reserve for the 49ers' Week 7 game versus the Falcons but is more likely to be activated following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.
Dre Greenlaw?
Greenlaw's appeal of a one-game suspension was denied by the NFL on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Nick Martin?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Martin's (hamstring) status will be evaluated "in these next couple of days," Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Tatum Bethune?
Enrique Cruz Jr.?
Kurtis Rourke?
Eddy Pineiro?
Pineiro went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
Renardo Green?
Green logged one solo tackle and three pass defenses (including two interceptions) during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
George Kittle?
Kittle (illness) caught five of six targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 32-29 win over the Seahawks.
Game log
Kaelon Black · Rushing Yards vs 23.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 23.5
65
25
17
13
16
LARMIAARIDENSEA
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 11@SEAW16Hit
Oct 4vsDENW13Hit
Sep 27vsARIW17Hit
Sep 20vsMIAW25Miss
Sep 11@LARW65Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 23.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
